Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford Baillie Gifford

Sometimes, you have to take a step back to leap forward. Over the past couple of years, Meta, Amazon, Block and Shopify are among the growth companies to have made efficiency cuts following the pandemic. Gary Robinson, an investor in Baillie Gifford’s US Equity Team, says that’s made them more agile and resilient – qualities that will let them take advantage of artificial intelligence and other opportunities to drive long-term growth. Background: Gary Robinson is joint manager of the Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, a manager of the American Fund and a partner in our firm. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores how four leading internet-focused firms have streamlined their operations and reallocated resources to become more adaptable during a period of rapid change.Robinson draws a parallel with companies that made cutbacks after the global financial crisis to suggest that the markets may have underestimated how much growth can be unlocked by leaders taking a hard look at their firm’s spending, organisational structure and business priorities.Robinson suggests that recent efficiency drives will help Shopify, Meta and Amazon pursue AI-related opportunities that could meaningfully increase their earnings. And at Block, efforts to bring two products closer together could help the firm challenge Visa, Mastercard and American Express. Resources: Behind The Tech: Tobi Lütke: CEO and Founder, Shopify (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/behind-the-tech/tobi-lutke-ceo-and-founder-shopify)Dwarkesh Podcast: Mark Zuckerberg – Llama 3, Open Sourcing $10b Models & Caesar Augustus (https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/mark-zuckerberg)Bent Flyvberg: How Big Things Get DoneCyril Northcote Parkinson: Parkinson’s Law, and Other Studies in Administration More from Gary Robinson: Lessons from evolutionary biology (https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2024-q1-investment-lessons-from-evolutionary-biology-10043697)Why companies should embrace chaos (https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-video/2021-q3-how-harnessing-chaos-can-make-companies-more-nimble-podcast-audio-ins-we-0810) Companies mentioned include: Amazon (https://www.aboutamazon.com/)Block (https://block.xyz/)Meta (https://about.meta.com/uk/)Netflix (https://about.netflix.com/en)Shopify (https://www.shopify.com/about) Timecodes: 00:00    Introduction01:40    A background in biochemistry02:55    The appeal of American companies03:30    Parallels with the global financial crisis

Emerging markets have sometimes promised more than they have delivered, but circumstances may be tipping in growth investors’ favour. Will Sutcliffe, head of our Emerging Markets Team, explains why it’s an opportune time to invest in the asset class. Background: Will Sutcliffe is the head of Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Team and co-manager of our Emerging Markets Leading Companies Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he brings his 23 years of experience in the field to explain what makes the specialism different from other types of growth investing. He makes the case that finding exceptional growth companies at attractive valuations is only part of the equation. Investors must be mindful of the broader macroeconomic environment, he explains, to avoid getting caught out by currency swings or spiralling debt costs. This leads him to conclude that recent resilience in emerging market economies could point to a favourable outlook for the asset class’s growth stocks. All this only matters to our portfolios if there are exceptional businesses to invest in, and Sutcliffe argues that the emerging markets are home to an increasing number of world-class companies. They range from the Taiwanese chip maker TSMC to the energy, retail and telecoms conglomerate Reliance Industries. Resources: Emerging markets: why bother? (https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2023-q3-emerging-markets-why-bother-10040076)Stock story: Pinduoduo (https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-video/2024-q1-pinduoduo-stock-story-10044944/)South-east Asia’s rising export stars (https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/2023-q4-south-east-asia-s-rising-export-stars-10041012/)Jio Financial Services (https://www.jfs.in/)Natura (https://www.naturaeco.com/)PDD Holdings (https://investor.pddholdings.com/)Pinduoduo (https://en.pinduoduo.com/)Reliance Industries (https://www.ril.com/)Temu (https://www.temu.com/about-temu.html)TSMC (https://www.tsmc.com/english)Gabriel Garcia Marquez: Until August Timecodes:00:00    Introduction01:45    Joining the Emerging Markets Team03:15    A ‘terrifying’ baptism of fire05:00    Emerging markets’ ‘dirty little secret’05:45    Qualifying for emerging markets status06:45    Higher-calibre companies08:00    Macroeconomic resilience09:30    US-China tensions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine12:00    Investing in China13:45    PDD Holding’s Pinduoduo and Temu

A new medicine that can help patients lose 15 per cent of their body weight could have far-reaching consequences for healthcare. Wegovy mimics a hormone the gut releases, reducing appetite and slowing digestion to delay hunger’s return. Research is also underway into other potential health benefits. In this podcast, Baillie Gifford investment manager Ross Mathison discusses its maker, the Danish pharmaceuticals manufacturer Novo Nordisk, which became Europe’s most valuable company in 2023. Background:Ross Mathison is an investment manager in our Global Income Growth Team, co-manager of our Global Income Growth Fund and deputy manager of the Scottish American Investment Company (SAINTS). In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how medicines that mimic the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) hormone could help tackle the growing problem of weight gain. Forecasts suggest that by 2035, more than half the world’s population will either be overweight or obese. That’s likely to lead to more people suffering associated diseases, putting health budgets under further strain. Novo Nordisk initially researched GLP-1s as a diabetes treatment. The company is the world’s biggest insulin producer, but it’s the release of its weight-loss drug Wegovy that’s transformed its growth prospects. News that medical trials suggest that the therapy could also reduce the likelihood of heart attacks, strokes and other cardiovascular threats among some patients has driven further investor interest. Mathison explains that there could be further health benefits beyond this, how even more effective treatments could follow and why Novo Nordisk’s manufacturing edge and connection to the world’s biggest charitable foundation bode well for its future. Resources:New England Journal of Medicine: Semaglutide trial (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)Novo Nordisk cardiovascular trial press release (https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=166301)Novo Nordisk kidney trial press release (https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=166327)Novo Nordisk Foundation (https://novonordiskfonden.dk/)Wegovy (https://www.wegovy.com/)World Health Organization obesity factsheet (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight)Hitting Against the Spin Timecodes:00:00    Introduction1:40      What are GLP-1s?4:00      Scientific breakthrough5:05      Obesity: a disease, not a choice6:45      Novo Nordisk’s drug, Wegovy08:10    Prescription costs

What distinguishes companies that will thrive from those that will perish? In this episode, we explore three traits that mark out the companies set to surge ahead from those more likely to struggle: 1.      They solve real-world problems2.      They are financially strong and disciplined3.      They are highly adaptable Baillie Gifford partner Tim Garratt discusses these characteristics, gives examples of companies that exhibit them and explains why this feels like a once-in-a-generation opportunity to be a long-term growth investor. BackgroundTim Garratt is an investment specialist, overseeing the institutional clients who invest in our Long Term Global Growth strategy and leading our broader client specialist network. He recently co-authored the paper Why growth, why now?, which reaffirms our beliefs about how growth investing can generate attractive returns.In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how interest rate rises, restricted amounts of capital and geopolitical tensions are causing a stock market shake-out. And he explains why this plays to the advantage of patient investors who focus on the fundamentals when picking growth stocks. Garratt gives examples of how companies, including Netflix, Roblox, Shopify and Amazon, fulfil the criteria we seek. And he explains how Baillie Gifford itself is adapting to the times, exploring the use of machine learning and other tools to hone our investment process.Resources:Why growth, why now? (https://www.bailliegifford.com/literature-library/insights/why-growth-why-now-10041062/#page=4)We’re all climate hypocrites now (https://newsociety.com/books/w/we-re-all-climate-hypocrites-now)See & Spray (https://www.deere.com/en/sprayers/see-spray-ultimate/)Netflix engagement report (https://about.netflix.com/en/news/what-we-watched-a-netflix-engagement-report) Timecodes:00:00        Introduction1:30           From abundance to limitation03:45        Implications for investors05:20        Real world problems: supply chains07:30        Deere and hi-tech farming09:00        Financial strength and discipline09:50        Netflix and pricing power12:00        Keeping watch on margins14:15        China’s electric vehicle makers16:15        Adaptability and new business models16:50        Roblox adds AI19:30        Microsoft, Amazon and environmental costs21:45        Sea and the importance of culture23:00        How Baillie Gifford is adapting25:05        ‘Why now?’ for growth investing26:55        Book choice

Show notesAmazon and DoorDash take different approaches to bridging the physical and digital worlds. Amazon has built an extensive infrastructure of warehouses, logistics ne...

China became known as the world’s factory thanks to it offering companies a way to manufacture all kinds of goods at a high quality and relatively low cost. But in recent years, south-east Asian nations, including Vietnam and Indonesia, have begun challenging it for that status. Baillie Gifford investment manager Ben Durrant recently returned from a tour of the region. He discusses some of the long-term growth opportunities he unearthed on his trip. BackgroundBen Durrant invests on behalf of the Pacific Horizon Investment Trust, the Pacific Fund, and our Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this latest episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores the factors that led China to become the world’s leading exporter and how its move up the value chain is now creating opportunities for other south-east Asian countries to grasp. Durrant reviews some of his most memorable encounters in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and reveals which growth companies excited him the most. They include businesses using mined metals to make car batteries, banks serving populations with growing spending power and, perhaps surprisingly, one of the world’s leading catfish exporters.Resources: The Indonesian companies powering the green transition (https://www.bailliegifford.com/insights/ic-article/2023-q1-trust-46-why-indonesia-matters-10019268/)Ben Durrant LinkedIn page (https://www.linkedin.com/in/btgdurrant/)How Asia Works (https://groveatlantic.com/book/how-asia-works/)How the World Really Works (https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/319141/how-the-world-really-works-by-smil-vaclav/9780241989678)Past podcasts (https://www.bailliegifford.com/podcasts/) Timecodes:00:00        Introduction01:30      China’s success as a low-cost exporter03:15        Land reform’s role04:00        Good quality, low-cost labour05:45        South-east Asian countries’ advantage07:15        Vietnam’s growth opportunity09:30        Vin Hoan: exporting catfish11:45        Sourcing local insights13:30        Indonesia’s move up the value chain16:15        Clusters of expertise in Malaysia18:00        Looking beyond tourism in Thailand20:15        Moving up the value chain22:15        The attraction of growth investing in southeast Asian23:15        Paying attention to macroeconomics24:30        Book recommendation Follow us via:Twitter (https://twitter.com/BaillieGifford)LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/company/baillie-gifford/) Companies mentioned include:FPT (https://fpt.com/en)Hyundai (https://www.hyundai.com/)Samsung Electronics (https://www.samsung.com/)Vinh Hoan (https://www.vinhhoan.com/)