374 episodes
Forward Guidance Blockworks
-
- Business
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
-
Nick Givanovic: Treasury Bonds Are “Historically Unattractive” To Leveraged Investors
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
__
Follow Nick Givanovic on Twitter https://twitter.com/nickgiva1
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise
(05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure
(06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons
(21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions
(25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish
(26:13) VanEck Ad
(27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?
(28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia
(33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?
(39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)
(54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market
(01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks
(01:07:49) The Labor Market
(01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
__
Follow Keith Dicker on Twitter https://twitter.com/IceCapGlobal
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(01:07) An Overview Of Currencies
(09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge
(20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe
(25:41) Economic Outlook
(29:27) VanEck Ad
(30:28)
(34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies
(36:23) Emerging Market Currencies
(42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit
(45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007
(49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY)
(01:00:27) View On Stock Market
(01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen?
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
__
Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket
(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far
(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect
(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises
(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can
(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?
(21:43) VanEck ad
(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things
(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?
(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy
(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market
(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)
(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies
(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)
(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Andy Constan: The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
__
Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring
Follow Two Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2Graybeards
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) The Script
(02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes
(04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession
(07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)
(13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market?
(17:13) VaEck Ad
(18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500)
(22:35) Stock Bond Correlation
(30:17) May Fed Meeting
(31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts)
(33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year
(34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy
(39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks?
(41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise
(44:53) The Japanese Yen
(46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States
(47:37) Chinese Equity Market
(49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT)
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Investing For A Recession-Free Future | Vincent Deluard on Secularly-High Inflation, China’s Currency Crisis, and The Long-Term Debt Cycle
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
__
Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation?
(19:38) VanEck Ad
(20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle
(29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future
(34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation
(42:03) The Fed
(55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation
(01:04:20) The Japanese Yen
(01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Powell’s Last Stand | Danielle DiMartino Booth on May Fed Meeting 2024
For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Daily Feather”: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward
Or use code “FORWARD” at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription.
__
Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:46) The QT Taper
(05:25) Was The May FOMC Meeting A Dovish or a Hawkish Meeting?
(09:01) The Fed Is Now Focusing On The Softening Labor Market, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth
(22:53) U.S. Economy Entered Recession In October, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth
(29:53) Consumer Spending
(33:11) Layoffs in 2024
(36:22) New Neutral Rate Of Interest
(38:32) Private Equity & Private Credit
(47:07) The Bernanke Doctrine
(51:24) Basel III Endgame
(56:33) Dissents
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.