Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you.
Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you.
Episode 97 - China air pollution | Saudis consider breaking Russia alliance | Dean Foreman
China's recent air pollution levels may be telling a story about the coronavirus impact on its economy
- using air pollution levels as a gauge of industrial activity
- pollution levels actually BETTER now than they were 5 years ago
- satellite photos show that barges of coking coal (used for steel production) sitting unused.
Saudis Weigh Breaking Oil Alliance With Russia as Virus Crimps Demand
- is the #bromance over?
- China and Russia becoming closer trading partners. Huawei is the main Russian supplier of 5G, pipeline.
- Russia-China relationship is more important to Russia than its relationship with Saudi Arabia
- Saudis may be trying to leverage what it can to pressure Russia into agreeing to cut oil production
Teck Pulls Oil Project, Blames Canada’s Climate-Policy Uncertainty
- uncertainty like this is ruling the market and causing a lot of volatility
API Monthly Statistical Report with Dr. Dean Foreman
Coronavirus market takeaways
- dominating headlines and price action
- impact especially in refined products
- will need to look at more data to see full global impact
- expected drop in U.S. Petroleum demand. 2%-3% growth in jet fuel demand disappeared in January
- IMO 2020 also affected demand but in unexpected ways
- production side: very well supplied market. With demand shock from the virus, getting price shock that we are seeing
- despite less drilling hitting oil and natural gas records
- by the time we hit the 4th quarter growth is down to 900,000 bpd, may also see a contraction in gasoline demand by 4th quarter
- Coronavirus is not a pandemic and isn’t as bad as SARS in terms of fatalities. It can have a bad economic impact and bad human impact but at this point it doesn’t look as bad as SARS.
- From a supply perspective, we’ve basically balanced the global oil market. But now Coronavirus is disturbing the equilibrium
- From a financial standpoint and an industry standpoint, there is an argument for OPEC to cut production at its next meeting.
- Will Coronavirus impact Americans’ vacation plans? For example, will people not choose cruise ships because of a fear of getting quarantined.
- Historical impact of election season on oil market - API study on trillions of dollars of negative impact of bans of different flavors on fracking. Within a year could hit triple digit prices and could stay there for a decade.
- US was a net importer of petroleum for January but this looks to be a short
Come watch Ellen at the Cato Institute next week on March 4 on a panel discussing “The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security”
Link to register or watch online here: https://www.cato.org/events/the-iran-crisis-and-american-energy-security
Episode 96 - Qatar delays LNG partnership | UAE Nuclear Plant | BU prof hunger strike
Coronavirus: China urged to delay purchase elements of US trade deal as outbreak rocks economy
- China should request a delay on its purchases from the US under the Phase One trade deal: What does this mean for the US economy?
- Dallas men arrested for conspiring to violate US sanctions on Iran to help China buy Iranian oil
- Agriculture purchases will likely be prioritized over energy purchases.
Saudi Arabia and Russia Should Want Democrat to Ban Fracking
Exclusive: Qatar delays partnerships for natural gas expansion amid price collapse
- Is this a bad indication of future natural gas prices?
Crossing the Line: A Scientist’s Road From Neutrality to Activism
- Professor from Boston University engages in a hunger strike to protest building a natural gas compressor being built in Weymouth
UAE's nuclear power plant to start operations in 'near future' after reactor licence issued
- Could provide 25% of UAE’s power needs
- UAE went about this the right way with all the correct diplomatic negotiations
- could be a good precedent for other Gulf countries, good example. Especially for Saudi Arabia
Oil traders rent South Korean storage after virus hits China demand
- buying storage leases for 2-6 months in South Korea because of demand drop due to Coronavirus
- should we increase global storage capacity?
Kuwait minister says neutral zone output to reach 550,000 b/d by year-end
- Most analysts think this is a wildly optimistic
March 4 Panel in DC! The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security
Chinese Refiners Go on Buying Spree as Oil Too Cheap to Ignore
Episode 95 - Shale new deal | OPEC no deal | Coronavirus & Saudis | Ellen's Twitter haters
Iraqi Officials: US Will Grant Vital Iran Sanctions Waiver
- waiver to be extended for another 3 months. Why? Because Iraq has FINALLY moved towards investments in its own natural gas and electricity development
Parsley Energy CEO debuts ‘shale new deal’ in appeal to Generation Z
- perception, pollution, profits. Can shale companies even make profits?
Plains sees Permian oil output growth slowing to 400,000 b/d by year end
- pipelines for days in the Permian
- spare capacity means that the pipeline companies can’t charge as much.
- some companies aren’t talking about slowing down at all
Failed OPEC Response To Coronavirus Shows Russia Is In Charge
- Why restart the neutral zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia when also trying to curb production
Posthaste: Why pipeline protests in Canada have taken an ugly turn and could disrupt the wider economy — at the worst possible time
What’s Next For The U.S. Oil Market And Energy Policy?
- do we really need more energy production?
- president trump needs to be careful because oil producers are in his base and they want higher prices.
What the Coronavirus Means for OPEC and Aramco
Episode 94 - China stimulus | Exxon v. Chevron | Saudis long for Man U | Joe Biden Fracking ban
China to inject $174 billion of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
- markets are having a mixed reaction
- big sell off on Chinese market when it opened despite attempt at China to prop up market
A Tale of Two Oil Giants With Two Strategies That Aren’t Working
- Exxon vs. Chevron: two different strategies. Chevron pursuing austerity. Exxon spending on cap ex.
- Q4 2019 earnings are not really the determinant of which strategy was the right one to pursue. We won’t know for 5-10 years.
- Jim Cramer says he’s “done with fossil fuels. They’re done.” At the same time as he uses fossil fuels in his daily life.
Amid global turbulence, Saudi Aramco weathers January better than industry peers
- Aramco isn’t trading like an IOC
Saudi Arabia still pining after Manchester United purchase, reports
- Is MbS a huge ManU fan?
- is this even helpful for PIF’s goal?
Saudis Weigh Large Oil Cuts in Response to Coronavirus
- market doesn’t care
- trading off of demand not supply
- Is OPEC risking writing itself into a corner by reacting to falling price with emergency cuts that don’t really raise prices?
Citi sees oil plunging as much as $18 on Coronavirus fears
- Citi revises its oil price forecast DOWN by $10-$18 per barrel.
- Brent could go as low at $47/barrel predicts Morse
- How China handles the post-Coronavirus will play an important role in oil market recovery.
Don't count out ethanol this election season
- Tom Harkin was the last Democrat to win the Iowa Causes and not become the nominee.
Joe Biden Does Not Support a Fracking Ban - Rep. Conor Lamb and Harold Hamm on the politics of oil and natural gas drilling.
Episode 93 - Coronavirus | Oil markets and China | OPEC and Trump | Union Members on Democrats
New York Times Western Pennsylvania podcast episode - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-swing-issue-that-could-win-a-swing-state/id1200361736?i=1000463544308
How the stock market has performed during past viral outbreaks, as epidemic locks down 16 Chinese cities
- check out charts showing market and other epidemics
- But do these epidemics REALLY impact the market?
- SARS 2003 coincided with invasion of Iraq and H1N1 2009 coincided with housing market bust
Oil drops below $60 as China virus stokes demand concern
- China may just continue with its policy of importing into storage
OPEC eyes deeper cuts to head off impact of China virus: source
- If OPEC says it will continue cuts through end of 2020 now does that really mean anything?
In Crucial Pennsylvania, Democrats Worry a Fracking Ban Could Sink Them
- Fracking provides $$ for the state and democrats get to distribute that, but what do voters think?
Dr. Dean Foreman with API - API Monthly Statistical Report
- More refining and petrochemical expansions
- Exports of 9 million bpd = crude oil + products. Record despite the fact that products side is down. Crude oil exports up even before US-China trade deal
- despite slowing drilling activity, production is up
- Seasonality aside this is a trend driven by strong production growth but should expect growth to slow and inventories to normalize in future
- Increase in US crude exports due to IMO 2020 can’t be correlated for sure, first quarter data will show more.
- Dearth of buying from China due to trade negotiations. US was finding other markets for US crude oil and other products across Asia, Latin America, etc.
- Details of US-CHina Phase one trade deal show that China will commit to purchasing US “energy” includes: coal, products, crude oil, etc. really is a $52 billion commitment over 2 years. What does this mean for the economy?
- 1/2 million to 1 million more barrels per day. LNG increases too.
- Mix of refined products that China buys from US are heavy on naphtha and propane. These are sold at a discount to crude oil. So crude oil is the product that can really move the needle.
- But US can only export so much crude oil.
- Shipping implications of this for Panama Canal. Don't let more than 4 LNG ships through locks at one time.
- Logistical implications of how the market will sort out the transportation issues of all of this.
- Natural gas market broken? Actually its the largest in the world. Not broken. 45 years of nat gas on record for Henry Hub - lowest prices.
- DUCs down by 10%
- Gasoline deliveries diverged regionally: seeing changes over time. More decline in urban and less...
Episode 92 - IMF growth predictions | Libya production | Iraq oilfield at standstill | McDermott
Texas Oil and Gas Podcast with Anas Alhajji - https://www.spreaker.com/episode/21676729
Crossing the Chasm - https://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-3rd-Disruptive-Mainstream/dp/0062292986/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=Crossing+the+Chasm&qid=1579620229&sr=8-2
EcoCities in China - https://www.mnd.gov.sg/tianjinecocity/progress
No turning point in sight as IMF predicts sluggish global growth
- Fed finally admitted that they were doing QE
- Investors concerned, why is Fed keeping economy going?
- IMF sees growth at 3.3% for 2020 which is slightly below October projections
- 2021 growth forecast at 3.4%
- Revises China’s growth upwards due to Phase One trade deal but U.S. growth not updated because of it.
Libya’s Oil Output Grinds to Halt as Berlin Peace Talks Conclude
Libya faces major oil output shutdown as export blockade begins
- Libya produces 1.11 mbpd according to Platts
- Export blockade, not production stoppage
- Will it end when the storage tanks are full?
- 800,000 bpd coming off the market but going into storage
- probably not a long-term issue, though Brent crude went up 1.8%
Iraqi Oil Field Halts as Reform-Driven Protests Escalate
- Al Ahdab oil field which produces 70,000 bpd was down because security guards seeking permanent oil contracts blocked access to the field
- American companies have abandoned Iraq. Will they ever return? I think not.
Saudi energy minister: We want sustainable oil prices
- March OPEC meeting looks unlikely due to lack of information
- Oil production will be at 9.744 mbpd says Saudi oil minister
McDermott International may file for bankruptcy as soon as next week
- Received delisting warning on Friday, December 13th.
Why OPEC Is A Classic Cartel And Could Regain Its Power Over Oil Markets
- OPEC might not be a very effective cartel today, but its purpose is...