108 episodios

Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you.

Energy Week Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald

    • Noticias de negocios

Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you.

    Episode 97 - China air pollution | Saudis consider breaking Russia alliance | Dean Foreman

    Episode 97 - China air pollution | Saudis consider breaking Russia alliance | Dean Foreman

    China's recent air pollution levels may be telling a story about the coronavirus impact on its economy
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/coronavirus-chinas-air-pollution-levels-smog-show-hit-to-the-economy.html
    - using air pollution levels as a gauge of industrial activity
    - pollution levels actually BETTER now than they were 5 years ago
    - satellite photos show that barges of coking coal (used for steel production) sitting unused.

    Saudis Weigh Breaking Oil Alliance With Russia as Virus Crimps Demand
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudis-weigh-break-with-russia-over-response-to-coronavirus-11582293904?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/OoGWIMzltL
    - is the #bromance over?
    - China and Russia becoming closer trading partners. Huawei is the main Russian supplier of 5G, pipeline.
    - Russia-China relationship is more important to Russia than its relationship with Saudi Arabia
    - Saudis may be trying to leverage what it can to pressure Russia into agreeing to cut oil production

    Teck Pulls Oil Project, Blames Canada’s Climate-Policy Uncertainty
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/teck-pulls-oil-project-blames-canadas-climate-policy-uncertainty-11582522432
    - uncertainty like this is ruling the market and causing a lot of volatility

    API Monthly Statistical Report with Dr. Dean Foreman
    https://www.api.org/~/media/Files/News/2020/02/Monthly_Statistical_Report_January_2020.pdf
    Coronavirus market takeaways
    - dominating headlines and price action
    - impact especially in refined products
    - will need to look at more data to see full global impact
    - expected drop in U.S. Petroleum demand. 2%-3% growth in jet fuel demand disappeared in January
    - IMO 2020 also affected demand but in unexpected ways
    - production side: very well supplied market. With demand shock from the virus, getting price shock that we are seeing
    - despite less drilling hitting oil and natural gas records
    - by the time we hit the 4th quarter growth is down to 900,000 bpd, may also see a contraction in gasoline demand by 4th quarter
    - Coronavirus is not a pandemic and isn’t as bad as SARS in terms of fatalities. It can have a bad economic impact and bad human impact but at this point it doesn’t look as bad as SARS.
    - From a supply perspective, we’ve basically balanced the global oil market. But now Coronavirus is disturbing the equilibrium
    - From a financial standpoint and an industry standpoint, there is an argument for OPEC to cut production at its next meeting.
    - Will Coronavirus impact Americans’ vacation plans? For example, will people not choose cruise ships because of a fear of getting quarantined.
    - Historical impact of election season on oil market - API study on trillions of dollars of negative impact of bans of different flavors on fracking. Within a year could hit triple digit prices and could stay there for a decade.
    - US was a net importer of petroleum for January but this looks to be a short

    Come watch Ellen at the Cato Institute next week on March 4 on a panel discussing “The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security”
    Link to register or watch online here: https://www.cato.org/events/the-iran-crisis-and-american-energy-security

    • 48 min
    Episode 96 - Qatar delays LNG partnership | UAE Nuclear Plant | BU prof hunger strike

    Episode 96 - Qatar delays LNG partnership | UAE Nuclear Plant | BU prof hunger strike

    Coronavirus: China urged to delay purchase elements of US trade deal as outbreak rocks economy
    https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051004/coronavirus-china-urged-delay-purchase-elements-us-trade-deal
    - China should request a delay on its purchases from the US under the Phase One trade deal: What does this mean for the US economy?
    - Dallas men arrested for conspiring to violate US sanctions on Iran to help China buy Iranian oil
    - Agriculture purchases will likely be prioritized over energy purchases.

    Saudi Arabia and Russia Should Want Democrat to Ban Fracking
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/09/10/why-russia-and-saudi-arabia-secretly-want-the-democrats-to-beat-trump/

    Exclusive: Qatar delays partnerships for natural gas expansion amid price collapse
    https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN20B00Y
    - Is this a bad indication of future natural gas prices?

    Crossing the Line: A Scientist’s Road From Neutrality to Activism
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11022020/hunger-strike-nathan-phillips-natural-gas-compressor
    - Professor from Boston University engages in a hunger strike to protest building a natural gas compressor being built in Weymouth

    UAE's nuclear power plant to start operations in 'near future' after reactor licence issued
    https://amp.arabianbusiness.com/amp/article_listing/aben/energy/440374-uaes-nuclear-power-plant-to-start-operations-in-near-future-after-reactor-licence-issued
    - Could provide 25% of UAE’s power needs
    - UAE went about this the right way with all the correct diplomatic negotiations
    - could be a good precedent for other Gulf countries, good example. Especially for Saudi Arabia

    Oil traders rent South Korean storage after virus hits China demand
    https://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN20B0OH
    - buying storage leases for 2-6 months in South Korea because of demand drop due to Coronavirus
    - should we increase global storage capacity?

    Kuwait minister says neutral zone output to reach 550,000 b/d by year-end
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/021720-kuwait-minister-says-neutral-zone-output-to-reach-550000-bd-by-year-end
    - Most analysts think this is a wildly optimistic

    March 4 Panel in DC! The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security
    https://www.cato.org/events/the-iran-crisis-and-american-energy-security

    Chinese Refiners Go on Buying Spree as Oil Too Cheap to Ignore
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-14/chinese-refiners-go-on-buying-spree-as-oil-too-cheap-to-ignore

    • 55 min
    Episode 95 - Shale new deal | OPEC no deal | Coronavirus & Saudis | Ellen's Twitter haters

    Episode 95 - Shale new deal | OPEC no deal | Coronavirus & Saudis | Ellen's Twitter haters

    Iraqi Officials: US Will Grant Vital Iran Sanctions Waiver
    https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/10/business/bc-ml-iraq-us-sanctions.html
    - waiver to be extended for another 3 months. Why? Because Iraq has FINALLY moved towards investments in its own natural gas and electricity development

    Parsley Energy CEO debuts ‘shale new deal’ in appeal to Generation Z
    https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Parsley-Energy-CEO-debuts-shale-new-deal-in-15033627.php
    - perception, pollution, profits. Can shale companies even make profits?

    Plains sees Permian oil output growth slowing to 400,000 b/d by year end
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020520-plains-sees-permian-oil-output-growth-slowing-to-400000-bd-by-year-end
    - pipelines for days in the Permian
    - spare capacity means that the pipeline companies can’t charge as much.
    - some companies aren’t talking about slowing down at all

    Failed OPEC Response To Coronavirus Shows Russia Is In Charge
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/02/06/failed-opec-response-to-coronavirus-shows-russia-is-in-charge/
    - Why restart the neutral zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia when also trying to curb production

    Posthaste: Why pipeline protests in Canada have taken an ugly turn and could disrupt the wider economy — at the worst possible time
    https://business.financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-why-pipeline-protests-in-canada-have-taken-an-ugly-turn-and-could-disrupt-the-wider-economy-at-the-worst-possible-time?utm_

    What’s Next For The U.S. Oil Market And Energy Policy?
    https://www.investing.com/analysis/whats-next-for-the-us-oil-market-and-energy-policy-200505083
    - do we really need more energy production?
    - president trump needs to be careful because oil producers are in his base and they want higher prices.

    What the Coronavirus Means for OPEC and Aramco
    https://energyjournal.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/d/177DFBD2E9EC26F32540EF23F30FEDED/312F2B9CF0AAEE08A10BC276F201ED4B

    • 54 min
    Episode 94 - China stimulus | Exxon v. Chevron | Saudis long for Man U | Joe Biden Fracking ban

    Episode 94 - China stimulus | Exxon v. Chevron | Saudis long for Man U | Joe Biden Fracking ban

    China to inject $174 billion of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-inject-174-billion-liquidity-073630793.html
    - markets are having a mixed reaction
    - big sell off on Chinese market when it opened despite attempt at China to prop up market

    A Tale of Two Oil Giants With Two Strategies That Aren’t Working
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/tale-of-two-oil-giants-with-two-strategies-that-aren-t-working?
    - Exxon vs. Chevron: two different strategies. Chevron pursuing austerity. Exxon spending on cap ex.
    - Q4 2019 earnings are not really the determinant of which strategy was the right one to pursue. We won’t know for 5-10 years.
    - Jim Cramer says he’s “done with fossil fuels. They’re done.” At the same time as he uses fossil fuels in his daily life.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-heated-oxford-education-11580680180

    Amid global turbulence, Saudi Aramco weathers January better than industry peers
    https://amp.arabianbusiness.com/amp/article_listing/aben/stocks/439089-amid-global-turbulence-saudi-aramco-weathers-january-better-than-industry-peers?
    - Aramco isn’t trading like an IOC

    Saudi Arabia still pining after Manchester United purchase, reports
    https://amp.arabianbusiness.com/amp/article_listing/aben/sport/439094-saudi-arabia-still-pining-after-manchester-united-purchase-reports?
    - Is MbS a huge ManU fan?
    - is this even helpful for PIF’s goal?

    Saudis Weigh Large Oil Cuts in Response to Coronavirus
    https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/saudis-mull-drastic-oil-cuts-in-response-to-coronavirus-11580728630
    - market doesn’t care
    - trading off of demand not supply
    - Is OPEC risking writing itself into a corner by reacting to falling price with emergency cuts that don’t really raise prices?

    Citi sees oil plunging as much as $18 on Coronavirus fears
    https://business.financialpost.com/investing/citi-sees-oil-plunging-as-much-as-18-on-coronavirus-fears?
    - Citi revises its oil price forecast DOWN by $10-$18 per barrel.
    - Brent could go as low at $47/barrel predicts Morse
    - How China handles the post-Coronavirus will play an important role in oil market recovery.

    Don't count out ethanol this election season
    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/iowa-view/2020/01/31/ethanol-thriving-four-years-after-supposed-iowa-caucuses-demise/2858941001/
    - Tom Harkin was the last Democrat to win the Iowa Causes and not become the nominee.

    Joe Biden Does Not Support a Fracking Ban - Rep. Conor Lamb and Harold Hamm on the politics of oil and natural gas drilling.
    a...

    • 51 min
    Episode 93 - Coronavirus | Oil markets and China | OPEC and Trump | Union Members on Democrats

    Episode 93 - Coronavirus | Oil markets and China | OPEC and Trump | Union Members on Democrats

    New York Times Western Pennsylvania podcast episode - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-swing-issue-that-could-win-a-swing-state/id1200361736?i=1000463544308

    How the stock market has performed during past viral outbreaks, as epidemic locks down 16 Chinese cities
    https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/6A955A3E-3D43-11EA-A3B8-BC9F4A046959?
    - check out charts showing market and other epidemics
    - But do these epidemics REALLY impact the market?
    - SARS 2003 coincided with invasion of Iraq and H1N1 2009 coincided with housing market bust

    Oil drops below $60 as China virus stokes demand concern
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-drops-below-60-as-china-virus-stokes-demand-concern-idUSKBN1ZQ02Z
    - China may just continue with its policy of importing into storage

    OPEC eyes deeper cuts to head off impact of China virus: source
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012720-saudi-arabia-ready-to-support-oil-market-as-china-coronavirus-spreads-minister?
    - If OPEC says it will continue cuts through end of 2020 now does that really mean anything?

    In Crucial Pennsylvania, Democrats Worry a Fracking Ban Could Sink Them
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-fracking.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
    - Fracking provides $$ for the state and democrats get to distribute that, but what do voters think?

    Dr. Dean Foreman with API - API Monthly Statistical Report
    - More refining and petrochemical expansions
    - Exports of 9 million bpd = crude oil + products. Record despite the fact that products side is down. Crude oil exports up even before US-China trade deal
    - despite slowing drilling activity, production is up
    - Seasonality aside this is a trend driven by strong production growth but should expect growth to slow and inventories to normalize in future
    - Increase in US crude exports due to IMO 2020 can’t be correlated for sure, first quarter data will show more.
    - Dearth of buying from China due to trade negotiations. US was finding other markets for US crude oil and other products across Asia, Latin America, etc.
    - Details of US-CHina Phase one trade deal show that China will commit to purchasing US “energy” includes: coal, products, crude oil, etc. really is a $52 billion commitment over 2 years. What does this mean for the economy?
    - 1/2 million to 1 million more barrels per day. LNG increases too.
    - Mix of refined products that China buys from US are heavy on naphtha and propane. These are sold at a discount to crude oil. So crude oil is the product that can really move the needle.
    - But US can only export so much crude oil.
    - Shipping implications of this for Panama Canal. Don't let more than 4 LNG ships through locks at one time.
    - Logistical implications of how the market will sort out the transportation issues of all of this.
    - Natural gas market broken? Actually its the largest in the world. Not broken. 45 years of nat gas on record for Henry Hub - lowest prices.
    - DUCs down by 10%
    - Gasoline deliveries diverged regionally: seeing changes over time. More decline in urban and less...

    • 57 min
    Episode 92 - IMF growth predictions | Libya production | Iraq oilfield at standstill | McDermott

    Episode 92 - IMF growth predictions | Libya production | Iraq oilfield at standstill | McDermott

    Texas Oil and Gas Podcast with Anas Alhajji - https://www.spreaker.com/episode/21676729

    Crossing the Chasm - https://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-3rd-Disruptive-Mainstream/dp/0062292986/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=Crossing+the+Chasm&qid=1579620229&sr=8-2

    EcoCities in China - https://www.mnd.gov.sg/tianjinecocity/progress

    No turning point in sight as IMF predicts sluggish global growth
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-imf/no-turning-point-in-sight-as-imf-predicts-sluggish-global-growth-idUSKBN1ZJ1H3
    - Fed finally admitted that they were doing QE
    - Investors concerned, why is Fed keeping economy going?
    - IMF sees growth at 3.3% for 2020 which is slightly below October projections
    - 2021 growth forecast at 3.4%
    - Revises China’s growth upwards due to Phase One trade deal but U.S. growth not updated because of it.

    Libya’s Oil Output Grinds to Halt as Berlin Peace Talks Conclude
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/libya-biggest-oil-field-starts-144025815.html?
    Libya faces major oil output shutdown as export blockade begins
    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/011820-libya-faces-major-oil-output-shutdown-as-export-blockade-begins?
    - Libya produces 1.11 mbpd according to Platts
    - Export blockade, not production stoppage
    - Will it end when the storage tanks are full?
    - 800,000 bpd coming off the market but going into storage
    - probably not a long-term issue, though Brent crude went up 1.8%

    Iraqi Oil Field Halts as Reform-Driven Protests Escalate
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iraqi-oil-field-halts-reform-212250959.html
    - Al Ahdab oil field which produces 70,000 bpd was down because security guards seeking permanent oil contracts blocked access to the field
    - American companies have abandoned Iraq. Will they ever return? I think not.

    Saudi energy minister: We want sustainable oil prices
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/saudi-oil-prices/update-1-saudi-energy-minister-we-want-sustainable-oil-prices-idUKL8N29I1C5
    - March OPEC meeting looks unlikely due to lack of information
    - Oil production will be at 9.744 mbpd says Saudi oil minister

    McDermott International may file for bankruptcy as soon as next week
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdermott-international-may-file-bankruptcy-180011083.html
    - Received delisting warning on Friday, December 13th.

    Why OPEC Is A Classic Cartel And Could Regain Its Power Over Oil Markets
    https://www.investing.com/analysis/why-opec-is-a-classic-cartel-and-could-regain-its-power-over-oil-markets-200499152
    - OPEC might not be a very effective cartel today, but its purpose is...

    • 55 min

Top podcasts en Noticias de negocios

Otros usuarios también se han suscrito a