New York Times Western Pennsylvania podcast episode - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-swing-issue-that-could-win-a-swing-state/id1200361736?i=1000463544308
How the stock market has performed during past viral outbreaks, as epidemic locks down 16 Chinese cities
- check out charts showing market and other epidemics
- But do these epidemics REALLY impact the market?
- SARS 2003 coincided with invasion of Iraq and H1N1 2009 coincided with housing market bust
Oil drops below $60 as China virus stokes demand concern
- China may just continue with its policy of importing into storage
OPEC eyes deeper cuts to head off impact of China virus: source
- If OPEC says it will continue cuts through end of 2020 now does that really mean anything?
In Crucial Pennsylvania, Democrats Worry a Fracking Ban Could Sink Them
- Fracking provides $$ for the state and democrats get to distribute that, but what do voters think?
Dr. Dean Foreman with API - API Monthly Statistical Report
- More refining and petrochemical expansions
- Exports of 9 million bpd = crude oil + products. Record despite the fact that products side is down. Crude oil exports up even before US-China trade deal
- despite slowing drilling activity, production is up
- Seasonality aside this is a trend driven by strong production growth but should expect growth to slow and inventories to normalize in future
- Increase in US crude exports due to IMO 2020 can’t be correlated for sure, first quarter data will show more.
- Dearth of buying from China due to trade negotiations. US was finding other markets for US crude oil and other products across Asia, Latin America, etc.
- Details of US-CHina Phase one trade deal show that China will commit to purchasing US “energy” includes: coal, products, crude oil, etc. really is a $52 billion commitment over 2 years. What does this mean for the economy?
- 1/2 million to 1 million more barrels per day. LNG increases too.
- Mix of refined products that China buys from US are heavy on naphtha and propane. These are sold at a discount to crude oil. So crude oil is the product that can really move the needle.
- But US can only export so much crude oil.
- Shipping implications of this for Panama Canal. Don't let more than 4 LNG ships through locks at one time.
- Logistical implications of how the market will sort out the transportation issues of all of this.
- Natural gas market broken? Actually its the largest in the world. Not broken. 45 years of nat gas on record for Henry Hub - lowest prices.
- DUCs down by 10%
- Gasoline deliveries diverged regionally: seeing changes over time. More decline in urban and less...