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As President Prabowo Subianto prepares to enter the presidency, the Indonesian military stands at a crucial juncture, navigating both traditional and emerging defence challenges. With Prabowo's extensive military background and his previous five years at the helm of the armed forces, this term is particularly poised to potentially reshape strategies around procurement, international agreements, and even the core tenets of the Indonesian military itself. This week, we delve into the evolving dynamics within the Indonesian military as it grapples with modernisation and regional security pressures, and examine the potential shifts and tough decisions likely to fall onto his desk during the next five years. So why is this term likely the most important for the military? What do Prabowo's purchases and policy shifts tell us about his future policies, and will Indonesia finally take its place as a significant military power within Southeast Asia? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:
- John Blaxland (ANU) 
- Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research) 
- Collin Koh (RSIS)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:03
PART 2 - 18:47
PART 3 - 44:05
Outro - 1:03:10

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Tensions are on the rise between San Marino and Italy, revealing a potential crisis on the Italian Peninsula that many analysts are missing. This situation, seemingly minor, hints at deep-seated unrest that could destabilize the region. We delve into the nuances of this brewing conflict, urging a reevaluation of its possible impact on European stability. Through expert insights, we aim to uncover the undercurrents of this overlooked crisis, highlighting the urgency of recognizing and preparing for the ramifications of this unfolding discord.

On the panel this week:
- James Ker-Lindsay (LSE)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 01:30
Outro - 14:37

RELEASED: APRIL 1st 2024.

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Delving into the shadowy realm of the small arms trade, we unravel a web of clandestine dealings and backroom deals that span the entire globe, arming insurgents, equipping terrorists, and bolstering criminal networks, thus creating some of the world's most volatile regions. As these weapons cross borders, both through legal and illegal means, their paths become increasingly complicated, yet the underlying fundamentals beneath the trade remain stubbornly rigid. In this deep dive, we seek to unpack the trends that drive the industry, identify which markets are currently hotbeds of small arms sales, and explore the nuanced dynamics that completely change the procurement patterns of cartels or regional insurgency groups. We unpack a hypothetical scenario of a theoretical insurgency group to demonstrate the unexpected challenges faced by these groups, with a panel of industry experts:

On the panel this week:
- Nicholas Marsh (PRIO)
- Franz J. Marty (Swiss Institute for Global Affairs)
- Mark Bromley (SIPRI)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:25
PART 2 - 24:47
PART 3 - 44:32
Outro - 1:00:34

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As Haiti grapples with an unprecedented crisis, the spectre of state collapse under the weight of rampant gang violence has cast a long shadow over its future. The Caribbean nation, once a beacon of freedom and resistance, now finds itself mired in a power struggle that pits armed gangs against each other in a bid for dominance of the nation, leaving civilians caught in the crossfire. Amid this chaos, the international community watches with bated breath as plans for an intervention loom on the horizon, sparking debates on sovereignty, the efficacy of foreign assistance, and the potential for lasting peace. Yet, the success of such an intervention hinges on a myriad of factors, including the willingness of local actors to cooperate and the ability of external forces to navigate the complex socio-political terrain of Haiti. With the stakes higher than ever, the question remains: Can the proposed intervention quell the violence and restore stability to this beleaguered nation, or will the chaos simply continue? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:
- Marlene L. Daut (Yale Uni.)
- Jess DiPierro Obert (Investigative Journalist)
- Evan Ellis (US Army War College)
- Chris Sabatini (Chatham House)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:47
PART 2 - 20:37
PART 3 - 35:52
PART 4 - 52:17
Outro - 1:10:56

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As the world stands on the brink of a new era in nuclear warfare, attention now shifts to the United States' ambitious modernisation programs and the burgeoning arms race in nuclear weapons development. This surge in advancement raises pivotal questions about the future of global security, the balance of power, and the implications of cutting-edge atomic technologies. Yet, these moves also ignites an international arms race, with nations scrambling to not only match but surpass each other's nuclear capabilities. Amid this whirlwind of technological escalation and strategic repositioning, the essential question arises: How will the United States navigate this new nuclear landscape, balance the thin line between deterrence and aggression, and what implications will this arms race have for global peace? To dissect these complex issues, we ask our panel of experts.

On the panel this week:
- Andrew Futter (Uni of Leicester)
- William Alberque (IISS)
- Donald N. Jensen (USIP)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 05:30
PART 2 - 26:59
PART 3 - 49:35
Outro - 1:01:37

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Europe is banking on Poland to valiantly secure its Eastern frontier, recognising its pivotal role along the CSTO's Western border and Poland's steadfast backing of Ukraine. However, a deeper examination reveals tensions between Warsaw and Brussels over everything from legal standards to concerns about recent large-scale procurements, raising questions about Poland's integration within the EU framework. With Poland's economic position and its role in European defence under the microscope, a critical question emerges: Can Poland effectively balance its commitment to regional security with its EU obligations, and what impact will its disputes with the EU have on its political future within the bloc? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:
- Mujtaba Rahman (Eurasia Group)
- Michał Baranowski (GMF)
- Edward Hunter Christie (FIIA)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 05:20
PART 2 - 22:07
PART 3 - 37:06
Outro - 1:04:23

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Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod
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