Special Briefing Volcker Alliance & Penn IUR

Western and southern states including Idaho and Florida were among those growing the fastest from the eve of the pandemic in 2019 through 2022. But there were some surprises as well, with Delaware, Maine, and New Jersey also joining the Census Bureau’s hot growth list. While the ability of many Americans to move to low-tax states and work from home played a large role in the population shift, other factors may have been at play as well. Meanwhile, rapid population expansion poses challenges in many of these states as they cope with enlarging school systems, updating infrastructure, and preparing communities for the impact of extreme weather conditions. Our expert panel explores these issues and what they may portend for state and local finances.

Our panel of experts includes New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy; Alex Adams, chief budget officer, state of Idaho; Shatakshee Dhongde, professor of economics, Georgia Institute of Technology; Thomas Doe, president, Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.; and Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management.

Notable Quotes:

“I use two words: talent and location. Historically, when New Jersey invested aggressively in talent and location, it did well –– and when it didn't –– it did poorly. It's really not a political ideology, it's playing the hand that you were dealt.” - Governor Phil Murphy

“But the big picture is: tax revenue is still good, and we still have a good economy… with the little caveat that the cost of borrowing will remain elevated, probably for another six-to-nine months.” - Torsten Slok

“A lot of [why we’re growing] is that we are a low-regulated state. This is the least regulated state in the country, we're also a low taxation state… we’re stable financially, and then there's all those intangible benefits and tangible benefits as we have access to outdoor recreation, beautiful lakes, mountains, access to skiing –– things that were really rejuvenating for many people during COVID.” - Alex Adams

“We talk a lot about pensions, but here in Texas, there are also going to be increased costs because of the changing climate, whether it's the electricity, water, the airport, or highways. You just are taking abuse from extraordinarily volatile weather conditions that are now commonplace.” - Thomas Doe

“A recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta showed that the Southeast region, which consists of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, grew around 0.2 percentage points per year faster than the United States in most major metrics of economic performance.” - Shatakshee Dhongde

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

With their revenues and cash reserves at record highs after unprecedented federal aid to offset the impact of COVID-19, dozens of states embarked on the biggest wave of tax cuts in decades, slashing levies by at least $124 billion on everything from personal income to groceries and gasoline. Tune into this Special Briefing as the authors of the forthcoming Volcker Alliance issue paper, State Tax Cuts after the Pandemic: Strategies to Sustain Fiscal Health, and an expert panel discuss whether these reductions can be sustained as revenues have begun to weaken despite the strong US economy.

Our panel of experts includes the paper’s authors Can Chen, associate professor, Andrew Young School of Public Policy at Georgia State University (GSU), and Alex Hathaway, senior research associate, Center for State and Local Finance at GSU; as well as Geoffrey E. Buswick, managing director and government sector leader, S&P Global Ratings-US Public Finance; and Natalie Cohen, founder and president, National Municipal Research.

Notable Quotes:

“When governments use one-time budget surpluses for permanent tax cuts, they may face long term budget challenges. This is why we wanted to specifically look at the long term fiscal implications of permanent expansions of tax cuts.” - Can Chen

“States that have opted for permanent tax cuts recently could face depleted safety net funds and less generous aid in the future. Our report proposes four strategies that states can consider going forward when they implement future tax reductions.” - Alex Hathaway

“As the paper highlights, thanks to a stronger than projected growth across many revenue streams the past few years and the ability to build the reserves to all time levels — typically well above policy — most states passed tax cuts and relief in some form.” - Geoff Buswick

“You never know when that black swan event is going to hit, whether it's climate change or some major crisis in the world, geopolitical issues can rear their heads and suddenly put a state on its back foot in terms of revenue changes.” - Natalie Cohen

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

For America’s states and municipalities, 2024 is likely to bring long-awaited relief from inflation and higher interest rates while presenting challenges—and not just because it’s a presidential election year. States, cities, and counties will have to contend with the imminent end of $350 billion in federal pandemic budget aid even as the revenue boom of recent years cools and the need for increased spending to ameliorate the risks of a changing climate put pressure on infrastructure spending. Listen in as our panel of experts discuss strategies that state and local governments are adopting to meet these challenges.

Our panel of experts includes Clarence Anthony, CEO and executive director, National League of Cities; Mayor Kim Norton of Rochester, Minnesota; Mark Ferrandino, director, Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting; Eric Kim, senior director, Fitch Ratings; and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Notable Quotes:
“There is a lot on the plates of local leaders, but city leaders are also resilient and optimistic, and they're determined to build their communities back better than ever before, in tandem with their state and federal partners.” - Clarence Anthony

“Obviously, there are lots of risks… there are things that can go off the rails, but I will say that for the first time in a long time, the risks are more symmetric.” - Mark Zandi

“We're a town of about 124,000 people and we’re home in Minnesota to the state's largest employer, which is the Mayo Clinic, and we are pleased to say that our local economy has rebounded fairly well from the pandemic.” - Mayor Kim Norton

“We definitely see some headwinds in terms of revenue for the next year, but long term, we see continued growth. We also see the demand on those revenues and the demand on the state government to just continue to grow.” - Mark Ferrandino

“In December, our economics team published its quarterly global economic outlook. And as we were just talking about, 2023 was a surprisingly good year. So good, in fact, that Fitch took off its recession forecast for 2024 in our last update, [and] we were one of those many in the consensus that we're expecting a recession, but we've pulled back on that.” - Eric Kim

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Many states, counties, and cities emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recession with record cash reserves following the US government’s injection of $5 trillion to revive the economy and prop up local government budgets. But even after the unprecedented federal support, states and municipalities have been left with more than $1.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities for public employee pension benefits that were promised but are not fully funded. Join our panel of experts as they discuss strategies that state and local governments are adopting to reduce this pension burden and whether they may have to reduce spending for education, infrastructure, and other critical public services to make room for increasing retirement contributions.

Our panel of experts includes Liz Farmer, public finance journalist and co-host of the Public Money podcast; Vedanta Goenka, senior municipal strategist, Citigroup; Merl Hackbart, professor emeritus, Martin School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Kentucky; Shoaib Khan, director, New Jersey Treasury Division of Investment; Anthony Randazzo, executive director, Equable Institute; and Les Richmond, vice president and actuary, Build America Mutual.

Notable Quotes:

“We have a target of approximately 30% of the [pension] portfolio to alternative asset classes,” - Shoaib Khan.

“Our top assessment from a 50 state review of data is that funding strategies for public plans have significantly improved whether we look at the last five years or the last 15 years,” - Anthony Randazzo

“As far as pension funding is concerned, we–– as Anthony mentioned –– have seen a tremendous improvement in ratios since the pandemic,” - Vedanta Goenka

“The adjustments that state and local governments have made to their pension systems in response to pension system concerns, such as adjusting benefits, supplemental funding, and ensuring contributions are meeting their requirements, has demonstrated a commitment to take actions to ensure the sustainability of pension systems,” - Merl Hackbart

"So, you might have neighboring towns that have very similar pension profiles — one is carrying a high amount of debt, one is carrying a little amount of debt — I would say the one with a little amount of debt is in much better shape. So it calls for granular analysis [if] we're going to answer the question if pensions are still in crisis.” - Les Richmond

“In a lot of places, [pensions are] still very much an issue, but in terms of the national conversation, pensions have definitely kind of taken a step back.” - Liz Farmer

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research invite you to join an online Special Briefing on how the rollout of the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) is proceeding. A critical part of legislation passed by Congress to combat the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and enhance the durability and sustainability of the nation’s infrastructure, the bipartisan deal promises thousands of new jobs and billions of dollars for roads, bridges, public transportation, water systems, and broadband access. Through July, the value of highway and bridge construction work was running 24 percent ahead of the 2020-21 pace, American Road & Transportation Builders data show. But there are bottlenecks as well, and the process of applying for federal grants is confusing, especially for smaller governments. Our panel of experts will sort this out and explain where infrastructure construction is headed.

Our panel of experts will include Representative Earl Blumenauer (D-OR); Samantha Silverberg, deputy infrastructure implementation coordinator at The White House; Alison Premo Black, senior vice president and chief economist, American Road & Transportation Builders Association; and Leah Brooks, professor, Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration, George Washington University; Jessica Jennings, legislative director for transportation and infrastructure, National Association of Counties; and Vikram Rai, lead strategist, Wells Fargo municipal division.

Notable Quotes:

“This is the first time we have a commitment unequivocally to be able to rebuild and renew America. It's a refreshing change and an opportunity for us,” Representative Earl Blumenauer.

“The IIJA, or the bipartisan infrastructure law as we call it, is a once-in-a-generation investment in our nation's infrastructure,” Samantha Silverberg.

“I can tell you from a market standpoint, for the transportation sector, we're absolutely seeing that program have a very big market impact,” Alison Premo Black.

“Most of America's roads are in rural areas, and 70% of counties are rural. We experienced all kinds of challenges when it comes to our small counties. And the biggest one really is our capacity,” Jessica Jennings.

“Infrastructure costs more in the U.S. than it does in almost any other country in the world. And you might not be surprised that it costs more in the U.S. than it does in developing countries like China. But you might be surprised to hear that it costs the U.S. substantially more than other countries like Germany or Australia, countries that we think actually have a full suite of environmental protections in the same way that we would like to,” Leah Brooks.

“The IIJA aims to put more transportation infrastructure by public-private partnerships. It does so by doubling the amount of availability with the objective to increase P3 (public-private partnerships) funding,” Vikram Rai.

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR) invite you to join an online Special Briefing focusing on whether Federal Reserve moves to slow inflation may result in a recession or soft landing in coming months and how states and localities may be impacted.

Our panel of experts includes Zac Jackson, Indiana budget director; Eric Kim, senior director, Fitch Ratings; Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management; Matthew Stitt, director and national lead for equitable recovery and strategic financial initiatives, PFM’s Management and Budget Consulting team, and former CFO, Philadelphia City Council; and Kate Watkins, president and chief economist, Bright Fox Analytics, and former chief economist, Colorado state legislature's Legislative Council Staff.

Notable Quotes:

“We are seeing delinquency rates going up on credit cards, and auto loans for consumers, and we are seeing default rates going up for high yield companies that are highly leveraged, but we’re still not quite seeing any significant slowdown in the broader economic data.” - Torsten Slok

“Regardless of recession or not, there are some important implications for state and local governments when it comes to our revenue streams…” - Kate Watkins

“Fitch’s view is that state governments as a whole are in a relatively strong fiscal position because tax collections have been just extraordinary…” - Eric Kim

“We took a very responsible approach when it came to using our stimulus funds in order to avoid building fiscal cliffs down the road where the state would have to supplant that one time federal money with ongoing state dollars.” - Zac Jackson

“I think when cities are really thinking about their budgets, they're always trying to look ahead to take care of your core expenses, your core services...” - Matt Stitt

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.