100 episodes

Join the MUFG Global Markets Research Team for expert analysis of the week's most pressing topics impacting economies and the markets.

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast MUFG EMEA

    • Business

Join the MUFG Global Markets Research Team for expert analysis of the week's most pressing topics impacting economies and the markets.

    Biden inauguration spells new beginning for U.S.? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

    Biden inauguration spells new beginning for U.S.? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

    All eyes are on the U.S. this week, where Joe Biden will be inaugurated as President on Wednesday. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, believes the markets will remain steady due to no expectations of social unrest.
    This week, Derek talks through the priorities for Biden and his administration, including tackling the pandemic head-on and the related fiscal stimulus package; trade policy and rewriting “the rules of the road"; and executive orders to reverse some of the steps taken by President Trump.
    Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    • 12 min
    Emerging Markets in EMEA: 2021 outlook: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

    Emerging Markets in EMEA: 2021 outlook: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

    Cyclical headwinds, policy limits and the legacy of the 2020 contraction will weigh on much of the emerging market (EM) countries in the EMEA region for years to come, with structural constraints placing a cap on the recovery.
    Notwithstanding the current challenging environment which has been amplified by the obstructive virus resurgence, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), believes that the contours of a post-virus equilibrium are coming into sight, with commodity prices rebounding, deficits narrowing and funding flows remaining robust.
    This favourable backdrop leads him to remain constructive on the outlook of the EM EMEA region in 2021, with growing conviction that after a painful 2020, and a first quarter COVID-19 winter speed bump (which will delay not derail the recovery), risks are now weighted to the upside.
    Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    • 8 min
    Bond investors “Won’t Get Fooled Again”: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

    Bond investors “Won’t Get Fooled Again”: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

    Both the press statement and the minutes from the December FOMC meeting make the end of the Fed’s asset purchase program pretty clear: the official “taper and cease” program is conditional upon the economy attaining “substantial further progress toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.”
    The latest December employment report fits quite well with MUFG’s U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann's view that the U.S. economy is on track to attain: (a) a complete recovery to the aggregate level of real GDP by mid-summer 2021, (b) full year growth of +5.7% YoY in 2021, (c) a +4.2% U3 unemployment rate by year-end 2021 and (d) the economy adding a net +6.1 million new jobs by year-end 2021.
    By the end of the 3rd Quarter 2021, and possibly sooner, most investors are likely to believe that an official “taper and cease” announcement may occur prior to the end of the year. Unlike in 2013, however, we believe that most investors will not wait until the FOMC unveils an official “taper and cease” announcement to invest and trade it. Hence, our core strategic investment stance remains a 2s-30s Treasury yield curve steepener. Investors desirous of a little extra optionality from, say, mortgage convexity selling in the spring and a little extra juice, may consider a 2s-10s Treasury yield curve steepener, we believe.

    • 15 min
    The year ahead in Agency MBS: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

    The year ahead in Agency MBS: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

    In this episode, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, discusses MUFG’s 2021 forward outlook in prepayment speeds, mortgage origination volumes, primary and secondary spreads, and investor appetite.
    Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    • 11 min
    What do changes in December fiscal flows, BoJ monetary operations, and base money mean for USDJPY, cross-currency basis, and JPY rate?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

    What do changes in December fiscal flows, BoJ monetary operations, and base money mean for USDJPY, cross-currency basis, and JPY rate?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

    Now that the U.S. Presidential and Congressional election results have been confirmed, the U.S. yield curve is likely to steepen over the near-term. Japanese investors will have to adjust their developed economy bond portfolios, not only with U.S. Treasuries, but also European bonds and JGBs. Developed economy stock markets have reacted favorably to the confirmation of results of the U.S. elections. The BoJ’s ETF purchases are clearly helping to drive the Nikkei Average upward. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic is growing more serious and on January 7, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga declared a state of emergency for the Tokyo area. The spotlight will be on the government and BoJ’s pandemic support measures, and investor behavior could change. Understanding fiscal and monetary policy will be key to prognosticating the next trend for JPY cross assets.
    In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, discusses developments with fiscal financing, the BoJ’s monetary operations, and the monetary base in December and what they could mean for the BoJ's monetary policy review in March. He also shares his outlooks for USDJPY, cross-currency basis, and JPY rate.
    Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    • 9 min
    Some relief at last for the USD: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

    Some relief at last for the USD: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

    This week, Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst, gives his expectations for the future of U.S. fiscal stimulus and monetary policy now the surprise results from the Georgia run offs mean the Democrats have narrowly taken back control of the Senate.
    Meanwhile in the UK, the economic forecast is far from rosy; a sharp acceleration of COVID-19 cases has led to nationwide lockdowns with possible tighter restrictions on the horizon. Is it time for the Bank of England to introduce negative interest rates? Lee Hardman gives his view.
    Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    • 12 min

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