How will the next five years unfold?
That’s the question everyone is asking, isn’t it?
What’s going to happen to my life, my health, my job or my business?
And for many people listening to this podcast, they’re wondering what’s going to happen to our property markets and the value of my home and my investment properties.
Of course, nobody knows for sure, the world seems to be in a state of chaos.
While some of the parts of the world are experiencing a second wave of coronavirus, other poor parts of the world are experiencing extreme first wave. Add to this the state of flux of Australia’s trade relationships, the world’s geopolitical problems, and we are living in interesting times – aren’t we?
But amongst this chaos in tune, there are some things that can be said about the next five years, some emerging trends, behaviours and opportunities that will flow from the various undulation is in our Australian demographic landscape and that’s what I’d like to talk about today with Simon Kuestenmacher.
One of the themes of our regular discussions tends to be how demographics drive our markets – not just the property markets but business as well.
Let’s start with the elephant in the room – clearly, we are going to have less immigration in the short-term.
Immigration will slow in the short-term We’ll have fewer students, fewer tourists and fewer backpackers As soon as practical, the government will open the gates and encourage immigration as a way of increasing our GDP We shouldn’t forget that almost half of Australia’s population growth comes from natural increase, and an even bigger driver of demand are emerging trends, behaviours and opportunities flow from the various undulations in the demographic landscape.
A breakdown of the different demographic groups:
Kids – birth to late teens Learning – entering university, moving out of the parental home, becoming an adult Partnering – may stay in the inner-city (near jobs) with a partner Building – having children with a partner, real estate needs increase, need 3-4 bedrooms Easing – When you’re 55-64, in the later stages of a career, may be taking more time off Retiring – Even if they aren’t all retired, they have less of an influence on the workforce. Spending more time with grandchildren. Staying in home as long as they can. Aging – 80+ cohort, needs accessible property, needs to be located near medical facilities Which of these groups are going to change significantly and place an increasing demand on our resources?
Teenagers - schools, sporting facilities 40 somethings – family, accommodation Retirees Because of their sheer size and stage in the life cycle, no generation will shape Australia more during the 2020s than millennials.
Millennials were born between 1982 and 1999. This makes them aged 21 to 38, and they will be 31 to 48 by 2030. Millennials perfected the art of procrastination as they popularised the gap year, forgot to move out of the parental home, pursued education for much longer, settled for a partner much later in life, and pushed out buying their first home and birth of their first child into their mid-30s. Throughout the 2020s, this generation of procrastinators will follow in the footsteps of every generation before them and enter the family-formation and home-buying stage. As life pushes you forward, preferences change. Throw a newborn into the mix and even the hippest inner-city couple gives in and follows the suburban sirens Throughout the 2020s, millennials will leave their centrally located one or two-bedroom apartments and migrate to the suburbs or even regional centres in search of more bedrooms. They want an additional bedroom or two to bring up the kids and to work from home occasionally. How are millennials going to reshape suburbia?
Due to COVID-19, reshaping will be more int