Disorder Goalhanger & Global Enduring Disorder Ltd

April 24th marks Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, but the tragic Ottoman massacres of Armenians of over a century ago have been largely forgotten in mainstream Western consciousness. Why? 
 
In the first of a two-part series, Jason is joined by Dr Armen Sarkissian, a world-renowned theoretical physicist, diplomat, and businessman. He was Armenia’s president from 2018 to 2022 and also its prime minister from 1996 to 1997. In their interview, they discuss the century old genocide, the novel round of ethnic cleansing that happened seven short months ago in Nagorno-Karabakh, how in the 1990s Armenia could have forged a peace deal from a position of strength with Azerbaijan but missed the opportunity, and why the legacy and implications of the Armenian genocide have been largely forgotten but are essential to maintaining any form of global order.  
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/  
 
For the Encyclopedia Brittanica Definition of the Armenian Genocide: https://www.britannica.com/event/Armenian-Genocide/Genocide  
 
Armenia Under Siege: https://www.newsweek.com/armenia-under-siege-opinion-1889040  
 
On Calouste Gulbenkian as Mr 5%, and the wealthiest man in the world in his day: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jan/03/mr-five-per-cent-calouste-gulbenian-worlds-richest-man   
 
Controversial land sale puts Jerusalem Armenians on edge: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65876162  

If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/
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In the early morning hours of 19 April, American officials told major news outlets that an Israeli missile had struck central Iran near its nuclear sites. No one was harmed. Officially, the Israelis are not claiming to have attacked; and Iran is not claiming to have been attacked. It is distinctly possible that this pinprick strike combined with denials on all sides will satisfy both parties and avert further retaliation. Conversely, it is also distinctly possible that it will lead to further cycles of revenge and escalation.
 
To Order this Disorder, Jason is joined by our returning champion Arthur Snell and our great Scottish hopeful, Jane Kinninmont -- Policy & Impact Director at the European Leadership Network (an institution specializing in preventing nuclear war). The trio discuss: 1) why did Israel choose to retaliate, even though Biden counselled them to ‘Bank the Win’; 2) if this event even counts as retribution for the Iranian strikes of 14 April or could be classified as a non-strike as it is below the threshold of certain previous Israeli actions inside Iran; and 3) how Iran’s and Israel’s Sunni Arab neighbors are responding.
 
Mulling over this unique historical moment, the trio use the Ordering the Disorder segment to propose opportunities for sage diplomacy to prevail and de-escalate tensions. Of course, the mere existence of these win-win, mutually beneficial, off-ramps from further conflict, does not mean that the Iranians or Israelis will seizes these opportunities.
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/
 
Producer: James Hodgson
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
 
Show Notes Links
 
For a quick overview of April 19th’s events: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/israel-carries-out-strikes-isfahan-iran-reports?mc_cid=a8bfe16bdf&mc_eid=b844138f36
 
 
For Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out-of-the-shadow-war-iranian-narratives-of-the-confrontation-with-israel/
 
For Arthur Snell’s Substack, ‘Not All Doom’: https://arthursnell.substack.com/
 
And for his podcast ‘Behind the Lines’: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656
 
Join ELN’s roundup of the Persian language news: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=f9c4fc8e446f80bb4d50ed06f&id=ca7882ea45
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Taiwan is not only the epicentre of the world’s semi-conductor industry and a vibrant democracy. It is arguably the most important square on the chessboard of East Asian geopolitics. And the Taiwanese have watched very carefully how China has absorbed Hong Kong.  The ‘one country, two systems’ mantra was a total failure. 
 
China is not planning a peaceful union with Taiwan. China is building its military at a rate not seen since World War II. The Chinese explain their military buildup by claiming a desire to reunify with (i.e. invade) Taiwan by 2027. Is this just posturing by China or is a great power battle over the island – i.e. between the US and China – actually approaching? 
 
To examine the state of play in China/Taiwan relations, Alex Hall Hall is joined by former Danish diplomat, Jonas Parello-Plesner. In his recent book – “The Battle for Taiwan” – Jonas explores what China is doing to shape the regional balance of power. In the discussion, Alex and Jonas discuss: the surrounding countries’ (Japan/South Korea/Philippines) role in deterring China, how seriously we should take Xi’s stated ambition of ‘assimilating’ Taiwan into China, and how should Taiwan and its friends in the West protect and prepare for such a likelihood. 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
Get Jonas Parello-Plesner’s book “The Battle for Taiwan” at https://www.amazon.co.uk/Battle-Taiwan-Jonas-Parello-Plesner/dp/B0CZRYS4RZ/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=  
 
For More on Taiwan’s recent election: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html  
 
Read Alex’s most recent Bylines Times article 
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/04/09/the-dilemma-facing-civil-servants-over-the-uks-arms-sales-to-israel/  
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In the early morning hours of April 14th Iranian drones and missiles were launched towards Israel. The launch was framed as retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1st.   
 
Nearly 99% of the projectiles were intercepted. Although little physical or human damage was sustained, regional relations have been fundamentally recast: Sunni Arab states like Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia allowed the US, UK, and Israel to use their territory and intel assets to counter the threat. Israeli PM Netanyahu initially vowed a retaliatory strike, but Biden, Sunak and others are trying to dissuade him. 
 
To discuss the late breaking developments and relitigate their previous predictions, Jason is joined from Dubai by Disorder’s own Roving Correspondent, David Patrikarakos. The duo set the context of the strikes within the long durée context of decades of proxy conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic. They investigate how these events might spiral out of control to cause an apocalyptic War of Gog and Magog or how they could reconfigure regional alliances and allow for renewed Qatari/American/Egyptian mediation to find an off-ramp from the current conflict.  They also investigate the current famine in Gaza and the lack of Israeli policy for long term governance solutions for the territory.  
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
 
For an overview of the Iranian strikes and Israeli response: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/13/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news 
 
The Role of Biden: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/  
 
Read David’s sage prediction in Unherd, ‘Iran is winning the Gaza war Tehran's violent strategy could soon escalate’: https://unherd.com/2024/04/iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war/ 
 
And Jason’s plea to blame Bibi and not the Jews:  https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/blame-netanyahu-for-gaza-not-the-jews/  
 
Our Oct 12th episode: The 2023 Israeli-Hamas war: A Symptom of our era of Disorder?: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e48504038444024ddfb4d273932b9eec  
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A decisively new kind of maritime terrorism has now emerged. Last weekend, two more British-linked ships were attacked in the Red Sea by Houthi pirates. This comes after the sinking of the Rubymar on March 2nd, which released 21,000 metric tons of ammonium, constituting a major ecological disaster.  
 
Jason is joined by Laura Cretney: a Yemen expert and founder of Pink Jinn, an online marketplace focused on supporting small businesses and communities affected by conflict in the MENA region. 
The pair provide a primer on how we got to here: Who are the Houthis and how did this ‘rag tag militia’ from the mountains end up with so much leverage over the global economy?  
 
They also unpick the implications of the Houthis: Are the attacks on global shipping actually changing the course of the conflict in Gaza? And what does the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the competing social media narratives emerging around it, tell us about the regional and global order (or lack thereof)? 
 
Lastly, the pair try to Order the Disorder by debating the role Diaspora communities in the US and UK can play in providing expertise and human networks to help improve Western policymaking towards the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Gaza, and throughout the MENA region. 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
 
Hear our previous episode on Yemen here
 
Background on the Dawning of a new age of eco-terrorism here
 
To find out about the recent attacks on British shipping visit here
 
Read about the impact on Israel here
 
And the impact on the global economy here
 
And why designating the Houthis as terrorist may backfire can be read here
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Beneath the Caribbean’s idyllic seafronts and sandy beaches lies a darker truth. Illicit money flows, corruption, and organised crime leave these small states hollowed out and open to state capture. In fact, the failure of Caribbean states to provide services to their populations and to generate income has led some of them to sell their sovereignty to their highest bidder. 
 
In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by Arthur Snell, host of the Behind the Lines podcast and former British High Commissioner to Trinidad and Tobago to discuss the multiplicity of interconnected roles Caribbean nations play within the Global Enduring Disorder. The pair discuss: Haiti’s recent gang uprising, the high homicide rates throughout the Caribbean, the historical role of the Caribbean as the first truly globalized region in human history, why former British colonies like the British Virgin Islands are increasingly turning to money laundering and drug trafficking, and how the legacy of the sugar trade has left societal scars in the region that are still felt to this day. 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack here
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
Read the report, ‘Homicide and Organised Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean here
 
Read more about Haiti here 

Discover more about Andrew Fahie’s drug case here
 
Read ‘The Crime Conundrum in the Caribbean’ here
 
Buy Arthur's, How Britain Broke the World here
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