96 episodes
Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded Moody's Investors Service
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- Business
Moody’s experts from around the globe and external guests join hosts Scott Phillips and Vittoria Zoli discuss macro, financial and credit trends shaping the world of emerging markets. Published by Moody’s Investors Service.
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EM macro conditions are improving unevenly as GDP growth stabilizes and inflation slows
Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.
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China’s push to shift economic growth engines faces hurdles but will benefit some EMs
It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.
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Digging into key credit stories for emerging market sovereign investors across the globe
China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.
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A focus on West Africa, where bright spots shine through political, security and climate risks
Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.
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State-contingent debt instruments gain traction in restructurings as sovereign defaults rise
These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.
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Emerging market central banks lower rates while US Fed signals rate cuts are not imminent
Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.