Behind the Markets Podcast Behind the Markets on Wharton Business Radio

Show from 06/14/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start this week by discussing the latest inflation data and the Fed meeting outcomes. Professor Siegel highlights that inflation numbers across various indices have met or fallen below expectations, and he anticipates a potential rate cut by the Fed based on the current data trends. Additionally, Siegel touches on the job market’s stability and the strong performance of specific tech stocks despite a narrow market rally. (10:04) Jeremy continues the conversation with Philippe Gijsels, who introduces his new book “The New World Economy in Five Trends.” They discuss the long-term inflationary trends driven by aging demographics, climate change, and debt, and the role of innovation in potentially countering these trends. Gijsels elaborates on the importance of real assets in an inflationary environment. The two also discuss the significance of geopolitical shifts, and the potential for significant developments in commodities and clean tech sectors.

Guest: Philippe Gijsels is an enthusiastic investment professional, a rare exception who managed to turn his hobby into a profession. He studied economics and financial analysis, read tons of books on investing and many other topics and has now been working for the Fortis ‘family’, which was renamed BNP Paribas Fortis, for almost 20 years. The integration of the bank into the BNP Paribas group opened up a whole new world of contacts and information for him.

Learn more about Philippe at: https://www.bnpparibasfortis.com/newsroom/press-release/philippe_gijsels_appointed_chief_strategy_officer_at_bnp_paribas_fortis

Follow Philippe on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/philippe-gijsels-5563131

Show from 06/7/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into this week’s market data, highlighting unexpected job growth and its implications on the economy. Professor Siegel notes the market’s resilience despite bond market fluctuations, and emphasizes the potential impact of upcoming FOMC meetings and CPI reports. (10:47) Jeremy Schwartz continues the discussion with Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. They explore the strategic importance of technology and innovation in maintaining global competitiveness, particularly against China. Ylli discusses the parallels between their new document and the Cold War-era NSC 68, and outlines the critical role of AI and other emerging technologies in the geopolitical landscape. They also touch on the necessity for public-private partnerships and the bipartisan support needed to stay ahead in the technology race.

Guest: Ylli Bajraktari is the President and CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. Prior to launching SCSP, Ylli served as the Executive Director of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Prior to joining NSCAI, he served as Chief of Staff to the National Security Advisor LTG H.R. McMaster, held a variety of leadership roles for former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, and served as Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey. Originally joining the Department of Defense in 2010, he served in the Office of the Undersecretary for Policy as a country director for Afghanistan, and later India. Mr. Bajraktari is the recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Medal – the highest award given to career DoD civilian employees.

Learn more about Ylli at: https://www.scsp.ai/ylli-bajraktari/

Follow Ylli on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/ylli-bajraktari-5b101326b

Show from 05/31/24

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss recent market trends, starting with the latest inflation data, earnings season results, and current tech sector weaknesses. Professor Siegel comments on the recent jury decision on Trump, noting it had no significant market impact. Professor Siegel anticipates a slowdown in GDP growth but does not foresee a recession. (09:03) Jeremy continues the conversation with Adam Phillips, Managing Director of Investments at EP Wealth Advisors. Adam provides an overview of EP Wealth Advisors, emphasizing their focus on comprehensive financial planning and investment management. He discusses how election uncertainties impact clients’ investment strategies and the broader market. He also explains the firm’s approach to managing portfolios, highlighting a preference for high-quality investments and strategic diversification. Adam noted an increased interest in international investments, particularly in Japan and Europe. On the fixed income front, Adam describes their strategy of managing duration and maintaining exposure to high-quality bonds while cautiously incorporating strategic income assets. Adam also touches on the role of alternative investments in client portfolios, including private credit, private equity, and other non-traditional assets. He underscores the importance of these investments in achieving diversification and managing risk in the current economic environment.

Guest: Adam N. Phillips, CFA, CAIA, CFP® has a strong background in investments and portfolio strategy. Adam N. has held various senior level positions at EP Wealth Advisors and City National Rochdale, where Adam N. has worked with high net worth, trust, and institutional clients. With an MBA from UCLA Anderson School of Management and a BS in Business Administration from USC Marshall School of Business, Adam's expertise in asset allocation, security selection, and tax management make him a valuable asset in the finance industry.

Learn more about Adam at: https://theorg.com/org/ep-wealth-advisors/org-chart/adam-n-phillips-cfa-caia-cfp

Follow Adam on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/adamnphillips

Show from 05/24/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz is joined by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese for a special dual release episode of Behind the Markets and Facts vs. Feelings. The tables turn in this episode as Jeremy takes the guest seat. He discusses his long-term collaboration with Professor Jeremy Siegel and their work on “Stocks for the Long Run,” highlighting insights on market trends, valuation perspectives, and international investments. They delve into the current state of the economy, inflation measures, and the potential impact of AI on productivity. Ryan and Sonu then shift the conversation to Jeremy’s experiences as WisdomTree’s Global CIO, exploring the firm’s innovative approaches to ETFs and model portfolios. Jeremy shares his thoughts on the importance of international diversification, the competitive edge of Japanese stocks, and the implications of currency hedging strategies. The episode concludes with Professor Siegel and Jeremy’s passion for barbecue.

Facts Vs Feelings Hosts: As Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, Ryan Detrick brings a wealth of expertise and a strong understanding of financial markets to guide the firm’s strategic investment decisions. With a proven track record of insightful market analysis and a passion for helping both advisors and clients navigate the complexities of the financial landscape, Ryan plays a pivotal role in shaping the investment strategies that drive Carson Group’s success.

Sonu Varghese has over 15 years of experience in the Asset Management industry. Before joining Carson, he was a Partner and Director of Research at Convex Capital Management where he co-managed portfolios, advised clients and led the research effort, including creating a proprietary leading economic index for 30 countries and systematizing investment processes. Prior to that Sonu worked independently with hedge fund managers and high-net worth individuals to develop quantitative investment models for trading equities, options, ETFs and closed-end funds.

Learn more about Ryan at: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/team-members/ryan-detrick/

Follow Ryan on X(Twitter): @RyanDetrick

Learn more about Sonu at: https://www.carsonwealth.com/team-members/sonu-varghese/

Follow Sonu on X(Twitter): @sonuvarghese

Listen to Facts vs. Feelings on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0pDWHQulo5ezvA3hPS5wH7

Listen to Facts vs. Feelings on Apple Music:
https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/talking-about-markets-and-life-with-jeremy-schwartz-ep-87/id1651235114?i=1000657157147

Show from 05/24/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the recent positive economic data, including strong durable goods reports, good claims data, and a strong GDP growth rate for the current quarter. Professor Siegel expresses optimism despite some market jitters related to the FOMC minutes and commodity price movements. He highlights how certain economic indicators, such as oil and copper prices, have softened, which may positively impact inflation trends. Siegel also discusses the potential implications of AI advancements, especially in light of NVIDIA’s impressive earnings, and the broader economic context, emphasizing the importance of monitoring future economic data closely. (6:56) Jeremy welcomes guest Daniel Rock, a professor at Wharton and an expert on AI and its economic impacts. They discuss Daniel’s recent AI conference and the cutting-edge research presented there, including the role of AI in enhancing productivity and the transformation of various job sectors. Daniel elaborates on his research findings, indicating that while AI can significantly boost productivity in higher-wage jobs, it also poses challenges in terms of job displacement and economic inequality. The conversation touches on practical AI applications in business, the necessity of training and adaptation for effective AI implementation, and the potential long-term economic benefits and risks associated with widespread AI adoption. Daniel also highlights the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration to fully understand and harness the power of AI in the evolving economic landscape.

Guest: Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor in the Operations, Information, and Decisions(OID) department at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is one of the affiliated faculty members at Wharton AI for Business. Broadly, his research is centered on the economic impact of digital technologies. Daniels' work shows that new digital technologies and intangible assets are an increasingly important component of economic activity. Investment in data assets, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and technological human capital are critical margins for firm competition and social change in this environment. In his research, Daniel measures and explains how some of these trends are evolving.

Learn more about Daniel at: https://www.danielianrock.com/

Follow Daniel on X(Twitter): @danielrock

Show from 05/17/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel delve into the latest market trends, starting with recent positive inflation data. The Prof notes concerns over various economic indicators, such as soft retail sales and housing starts, while emphasizing strong earnings and technical market strength. He also mentions the rise in commodity prices, particularly copper, driven by AI-related demand. Despite some economic weaknesses, The Professor remains bullish on the market’s short-term technicals. (12:08) Jeremy then welcomes Krishna Kumar, founder and PM at Goose Hollow Capital. They discuss the dominance of tech stocks in the S&P 500, the challenges of high valuations, and the strategic importance of commodities in portfolios. Krishma elaborates on the need for tactical investment strategies. He talks about the potential of emerging markets, and the importance of diversifying beyond traditional U.S.-centric portfolios.

Guest: Krishna Kumar is the CIO of Goose Hollow Capital Management, a boutique investment management firm based in the NY area. He has two decades of markets experience with expertise in derivatives trading and has managed size-able multi-asset portfolios at two large Hedge Funds. Prior to his buy-side career, Mr. Kumar worked in Derivatives at Citi and Barclays. He was a pioneer in creating Systematic Strategies at Barclays. He has an undergraduate degree in Mathematics and Graduate degree in Computational Finance. He has been applying machine learning techniques to Macro Markets.

Learn more about Krishna at: https://goosehollowcapital.com/

Follow Krishna on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/krishna-kumar-mba-89372aa