Forward Guidance Blockworks

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This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy!
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Jason Shapiro website https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:41) Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks
(03:14) If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble
(06:30) Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet"
(13:00) Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner
(20:50) "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here"
(22:37) VanEck Ad
(23:17) Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take
(26:31) Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell
(27:37) Nvidia: The Mag One
(36:49) Bond Market Positioning
(41:10) U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit
(43:50) Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks
(44:56) Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500)
(51:31) Jason's View Of Market Breadth
(56:49) Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks"
(01:06:15) Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish Sign Argues Jason
(01:09:06) On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Jack Ryan’s book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is “The Largest Cartel In The U.S.” Argues Jack Ryan
(18:01) Is This Legal?
(23:24) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs)
(28:32) Zillow’s Business Model
(35:24) VanEck Ad
(36:04) Rex’s Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change
(39:39) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down
(44:26) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits?
(48:40) How Zillow’s Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes
(54:11) Rex’s Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia
(01:05:55) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC
(01:11:59) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Kyla Scanlon’s Book, “In This Economy?” https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:19) In This Economy?
(07:44) How Are The Vibes Right Now
(11:43) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis?
(14:21) VanEck Ad
(15:02) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued)
(19:45) Declinism & Doomerism
(27:23) Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S.
(32:46) Political Polarization
(34:16) The Origin Of Money
(36:10) MMT & Debt
(40:48) Elder Care & Child Care Costs
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties.
Although the title “head of macro” plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlight’s macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024.
James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0
Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback:
https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(06:08) Job Offer And Title
(12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro?
(20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest)
(23:48) Van Eck Ad
(24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing"
(31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro"
(50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie"
(56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial"
(58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023
(01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment"
(01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn
(01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem"
(01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative
(01:19:17) Higher For Longer
(01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election
(01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve)
(01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft
(01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency
(01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1
Mel Mattison’s book https://www.melmattison.com/quoz
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:37) Mel’s Background
(04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years)
(06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market
(11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook
(14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard”
(17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”)
(24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s
(27:56) VanEck Ad
(28:38) Why Now?
(37:01) Great Depression
(43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues
(48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)?
(59:14) Timing: 2027
(01:04:52) Social Security Funding
(01:17:01) Gold and Inflation
(01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.