Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics, When Numbers Replace Wisdom & Common Sense‪.‬ Your Health in Your Hands!

Fifty years ago , when I was working as an operational research consultant for a major industrial corporation, I was modelling the growth of electricity demand with an IT colleague because the company couldn’t rely on the official forecasts from the electricity companies.

It was a great piece of statistical modelling, taking into account every user and industrial sector development, but soon we realised that the electricity demand was following the growth of the economy. The company’s computer filled a large room, data was input with punch-cards and great sheets of paper printed out the results. Because we soon realized that the forecasts were so dependent on the UK economic growth forecasts, I arranged an appointment with a senior statistician at the Government’s National Statistics Department.