Star Spangled Gamblers Keendawg & Pratik

Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year.
Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter
5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos
6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process
8:33: Best Market
9:27: Room temperature superconductor
10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market
11:23: Best Trade
11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market
12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1
12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei
13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song
13:12: Domer debt limit profits
13:17: Worst Trade
14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count
14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president
15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement
15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy
17:21: Best Shitposter
19:06: Domer's shitposting
19:56: RelayThief's shitposting
20:44: Rookie of the Year
21:12: Naman Mehndiratta
22:39: Manifold Markets
23:20: Betting platforms
23:48: TheWinner
25:29: Trader of the Year
25:46: ANoland
26:07: Gaeten Dugas
27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger)
28:33: Doug Campbell
29:05: Worst Pump
31:04: Kalshi election contracts
31:15: Hamas control of Gaza
32:00: Trump third indictment 
32:44: Semiconductor yes holders
33:40: RFK Democratic nominee
33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year
34:22: Best News Source
34:41: Politico Punchbowl
35:00: PredictIt comments
35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI
35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips
37:29: CSP Discord
38:36: Service to Political Gambling
38:36: PredictIt
39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck
39:56: Government Shutdown
40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump"
41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles
42:19: submarine debris
43:04: Trump indictment on March 31
43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages
44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute
44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack
45:59: Postscript
46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination
47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market at polymarket.com 
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Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged.

Timestamps

0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling

3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important

8:15: Interview with Hemma begins

9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling

9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics?

11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor

16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift

16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real?

19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip

20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline

24:34: Swift's past relationships

27:57: The Eras Tour

31:23: Kelce's public statements

32:02: Do they want kids?

35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market

40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year?

44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topics
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Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. 
Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself.
Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality.
0:42: Doug's background

0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia https://youtu.be/BZ0BbIbMcYg?si=Hr-jrGmlmi3LX9O2
1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest https://youtu.be/YrhsSohbRO4?si=07mDDuDKZRE2i9Y4


1:32: Manifest conference 2024
4:33: Interview begins
5:17: High-level update on the war
13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war
14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine
18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word
19:21: Sanctions against Russia
22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated
24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict
25:14: Impact of a Trump victory
26:02: Western aid to Ukraine
28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office
29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation
31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets
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Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference.
In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community.
In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick.
In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets.
0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn
1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest
1:56: Manifest Conference 2024
3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market
4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination
5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young
9:03: Interview with Saul begins
9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space
11:00: Optic forecasting clubs
12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community
13:25: Manifest Conference
13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community
14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community?
14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community
16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting
19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community
20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community
21:18: Communities interested in forecasting
21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting
24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting
28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins
28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds
29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds
30:05: Swing state VP contenders
31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins
31:59: Taxing bad predictions
33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets
34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets 
40:12: Hedge funds and AI

Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection.
Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC.
0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee
3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment
4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo
8:28: Darling interview begins
10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP
11:49: Noem's history with Trump
15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski
16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate
17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection
18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty
21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination?
22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP
22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares
24:29: Why Haley is trading so high
31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds
33:57: Bransfield segment begins
39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge
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Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president.

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0:00: Pratik introduces the episode
1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor
4:17: Interview begins
5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease
6:32: Trump's physique
10:12: Trump's psychology
11:05: Note from Trump's doctor
13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition?
15:06: Trump's genetics
17:46: Is weight protective in old age?
21:00: Trump's cognitive decline
25:29: Trump's OCD
27:00: Trump's purpose in life
29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health
35:00: How to trade on Trump's health
39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's health
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