YangFX YangFX

As the UK general election campaign hits the two-week mark, we take a deep dive into the latest polling, policy announcements, and campaign tactics from the major parties. Have the numbers shifted since the election was called? We analyze the polling data and what it could mean for potential outcomes.We also break down the key policy pitches from Labour and the Conservatives so far, including Labour's economic vision and the Tories' appeals to their base. How are the smaller parties like the Lib Dems and Reform UK faring?Plus, we look at the campaign trail theatrics, from Ed Davey's physical stunts to Rishi Sunak's base-shoring moves. With several TV debates on the horizon, where do the party leaders stand heading into these crucial events?Join us as we unpack all the twists and turns from the first half of this consequential campaign that could reshape British politics. Featuring expert analysis and insights from the campaign trail.


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Wave of Conservative MP Resignations
To be fair, we knew this would be an issue for the Conservatives even before the election was announced. Prior to the election announcement, 66 Conservative MPs had already declared that they would stand down at the next election. Considering that the Conservatives held 344 seats before the election, this means roughly 20% of Conservative MPs are resigning at this election.
Since the election was called, we have seen even more MPs announce their resignations. As of 9:00 AM on May 29th, the number has risen to 77. This group of 77 includes some very high-profile figures such as Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee; Chris Grayling, former Transport Secretary; George Eustice, former Environment Secretary; Michael Gove, Levelling Up Secretary and former Education Secretary; Matt Hancock, former Health Secretary; Sajid Javid, former Chancellor; and even Theresa May, former Prime Minister. In fact, of the 77 stepping down, 22 are either current or former Secretaries of State.
Comparison of Resignation Numbers in Elections
Indeed, the number of MPs resigning in this election is high. In 2019, only 32 Conservative MPs resigned, and in 2017, this number was just 12. However, this is not the highest number of resignations seen by an incumbent party during an election. Even back in 2010, 100 Labour MPs stepped down, although it's worth noting that MPs were embroiled in the expenses scandal at that time.
The Conservatives' Challenge in Selecting Candidates
With the election day approaching, the Conservatives now need to find candidates to replace these outgoing MPs. This is no small task. According to The Spectator, Labour is far ahead of the Conservatives in finalising their candidates. The deadline for this is Friday, June 7th, and as of Monday, the Conservatives still had 160 vacancies to fill.
While this sounds like a daunting task, there are some signs that they might be able to meet this target. The Spectator points out that many of the remaining constituencies are unwinnable, with many of them located in Labour strongholds in inner London. As a result, few candidates typically apply for these seats. These seats should be relatively easy for the party to find candidates for and should not take them too long.
However, the more challenging task lies in a handful of more attractive seats, those that appear more winnable, which have become available following the recent resignations of Tory MPs. Examples of such seats include Jo Churchill’s Bury St Edmunds seat, Andrea Leadsom’s South Northamptonshire seat, and Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath seat. These constituencies have majorities of 24,999 votes, 27,761 votes, and 18,349 votes, respectively. The Conservatives will want to select their candidates much more carefully here as whoever they select stands a much greater chance of winning.
Conclusion
All in all, this is going to be a tricky task for the Conservatives, and whether they succeed is anyone’s guess at this point.

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让我们首先解释为什么每个人都认为选举会在秋季举行。简而言之，传统的观点是，国家卫生服务（NHS）、经济和英国的移民危机（至少在保守党眼中）在秋季前都会有所改善，从而让苏纳克可以以“所有的努力都得到了回报”为竞选口号。例如，预计到今年年底，NHS的候诊名单将降至600万以下，到明年年底将降至10年来的最低水平，这要归功于新冠疫情压力减缓、NHS额外容量增加以及初级医生罢工的结束。在过去几周里，我们了解到英国经济已经恢复增长，通胀率已经接近英格兰银行的2%目标，如果这种趋势继续下去，到秋季利率可能会下降，实际工资可能会上升。净移民人数预计也会在今年晚些时候开始下降，因为对学生和技术工人的签证制度更加严格，但这只有在秋季发布数据时才会显现出来。如果卢旺达计划的威慑效果存在，也只有到今年年底才会变得明显。除此之外，一些保守党人希望秋季选举能将奈杰尔·法拉奇排除在外，因为他会忙于在美国为特朗普助选。
那么，为什么苏纳克选择在夏季举行选举，而他在民调中落后约20个百分点呢？诚实的答案是没有人知道，但我们提出了六种可能的原因，解释为什么苏纳克提前行动。第一个原因是他可能已经厌倦了，作为有史以来第二不受欢迎的首相仅次于特拉斯，他可能只是想放弃。听起来这可能像是对苏纳克的廉价党派攻击，但实际上并非如此。首先，现在担任首相确实看起来像是一份令人痛苦的工作。此外，这是许多知情的右翼评论员选择的解释。第二个原因是他想要出其不意，打击改革党。考虑到改革党在几周前的地方选举中只能召集300名左右的议员候选人，他们几乎不可能在7月4日之前派出632名合格的候选人，这种混乱的前景显然让法拉奇望而却步，这对苏纳克来说是个好消息。第三个原因是他想要出其不意，打击工党。因为工党也在预期秋季选举。工党还没有完全完成他们的竞选纲领，苏纳克可能希望通过迫使他们加快撰写政策平台而不给斯塔默时间建立共识，从而引发工党内部的争斗，加剧目前关于加沙问题的内部分歧。第四个原因是苏纳克认为现在是打经济牌的最佳时机。如果他等到秋季，很可能选民关注的焦点会变成其他问题，如移民问题（如果夏季小船偷渡事件增加）或污水问题（如果今年水公司在英国河流中倾倒的污水超过去年）。虽然经济新闻并不理想，但情况确实在改善，显然这是苏纳克最愿意谈论的话题。他可能还认为这是攻击工党的最佳途径之一。历史上，经济一直是工党的政治弱点，他们承诺遵循保守党的限制性开支目标，这意味着在这个问题上两党之间实际上没有太大区别。第五个原因是，尽管普遍观点认为秋季情况会好转，但实际上情况可能不会改善。通胀顽固地高于目标，这意味着利率下调和抵押贷款持有人的缓解现在看起来不太可能，而经济增长不足以证明选前减税是合理的。同样，如果卢旺达计划不起作用，苏纳克现在就选举比等到计划显得更加昂贵和无效时更好。现在选举还避免了保守党和工党的年度党代会，这对保守党来说是好消息，因为他们的会议将充满激烈的内斗，对工党来说则是坏消息，因为他们预计将在会议上筹集大量捐款。第六个也是最后一个可能原因是，苏纳克知道一些我们不知道的重大灾难即将降临英国。例如，可能是泰晤士水务的救助计划，这将花费消费者或纳税人数十亿英镑。也许是西蒙·凯斯今天在COVID调查委员会前的证词。这种信息不对称也

Market Report 1.12.2023


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Market Report 24.11.2023


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Market Report 15.11.2023


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