383 episodes
Forward Guidance Blockworks
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- Business
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time)
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:33) China Exporting Deflationary Pressure
(05:20) "Froth" In Commodities
(11:27) The Future Of Fiscal Policy In The U.S.
(19:41) VanEck Ad
(20:21) How Forward Looking Will Central Bankers Be?
(34:35) Chinese National Accounts And Flows
(41:21) War And Finance
(45:30) Bank of Japan
(54:57) Bond Market & Fixed-Income Trades
(01:06:16) Currency Trades on The Yen & Yuan
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
The Modular Integration Spectrum | Keone & Zon
In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in!
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(00:00) Introduction
(03:24) Modular vs Integrated
(11:47) Who are Appchains for?
(28:58) Composability in Modular World
(36:15) Monad's Endgame
(39:47) Importance of Decentralization
(48:05) Building Web3 Community
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Disclaimer:
Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation.
Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Jens Nordvig: Days of Japan’s Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Are Numbered
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:53) Japan
(11:48) Wages Are Rising In Japan
(16:45) The Effective End Of Yield Curve Control (YCC) In Japan
(22:57) When Will The Bank of Japan Raise Interest Rates?
(25:03) VanEck Ad
(26:43) How High Will The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Go?
(33:12) Jens' View On The Japanese Yen
(56:00) Jens' Updated Views On U.S. Dollar And U.S. Rates
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
The Inflation Paradox: Inflation Is Still A Problem | Weekly Roundup
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This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy!
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now)
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://x.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
Jason Shapiro website https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/
Jason Shapiro YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@crowdedmarketreport
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:41) Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks
(03:14) If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble
(06:30) Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet"
(13:00) Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner
(20:50) "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here"
(22:37) VanEck Ad
(23:17) Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take
(26:31) Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell
(27:37) Nvidia: The Mag One
(36:49) Bond Market Positioning
(41:10) U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit
(43:50) Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks
(44:56) Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500)
(51:31) Jason's View Of Market Breadth
(56:49) Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks"
(01:06:15) Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish Sign Argues Jason
(01:09:06) On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Jack Ryan on The Housing Cartel That's Stifling The American Economy
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Jack Ryan’s book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is “The Largest Cartel In The U.S.” Argues Jack Ryan
(18:01) Is This Legal?
(23:24) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs)
(28:32) Zillow’s Business Model
(35:24) VanEck Ad
(36:04) Rex’s Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change
(39:39) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down
(44:26) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits?
(48:40) How Zillow’s Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes
(54:11) Rex’s Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia
(01:05:55) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC
(01:11:59) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.