Actions in Iran Academy Securities: Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast

Key Points: 
Iran has been severely weakened by sanctions and the death of Soleimani further destabilizes Iran  
The death of Soleimani is part of a three-part strategy:  
Constrain Iran’s malign activity  
Roll back Iran’s influence in the region - especially in Iraq 
Deter further Iranian aggression 
Iran hopes that the death of Soleimani would galvanize its population  
Iran’s strategic information capabilities are significant  
The IRGC are more ideologically entrenched than the conventional Iranian military forces  
Iran is unlikely to want to confront the U.S. again in a direct fashion  
Future attacks will allow Iran deniability  
Attacks are likely to occur against U.S. allies in the region  
Expect a back channel movement to establish a diplomatic resolution – ease sanctions  
A significant portion of the Iraqi population wants Iranian influence out of Iraq  
Kim Jung Un is watching this closely  
China remains a critical aspect to resolution with North Korea  
China could provide military and nuclear top cover for North Korea 
For the first time, Iran, China, and Russia held joint naval exercises  
Remains to be seen if this partnership will embolden Iran  
Remains to be seen if Russia and China will stand behind the actions of Iran  
If Iran attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, China would be greatly impacted