Bear Market Rally vs New Bull Market with Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research

In this week’s podcast Grizzle was joined by Warren Pies, the Co-founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research, to help us make sense of both the equity and commodity markets, and why he believes we are in the midst of a bear market rally. Key topics discussed:

Why The Market Hasn't Bottomed  

• Earnings Still Falling
• Yield Curve Still Inverted
• Fed Still Hiking
• Lack of Market Breadth

Why Pies Remains Long Oil

• Inventory Draws Are Improving  
• OPEC Cuts Take Effect in May
• China Demand Picking Up
• US Recession Won’t Be Drastic

Will The Fed Pause?

• Historically Fed Doesn’t Pause When Markets Rally
• 5-10% Correction Comes at End of Hike Cycle
• What Happens in June Will Be Dictated By Market Performance  
• If CPI Remains Sticky A Pause From The Fed Will Be Harder

3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies / https://twitter.com/3F_Research

Grizzle Research & Quant Substack: https://grizzleresearch.substack.com

Follow Grizzle on Twitter: @grizzlemedia @margot_rubin @thomasg_grizzle @scottw_grizzle