In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates.
Host Thomas Harr will discuss weekly market views, and deep dive into a selected theme together with his co-host of the week.
Macro Strategy Views: The short- and long-term consequences of Brexit
Today, we discuss why we think the EU and UK are moving closer to each other in the negotiations, the difference between a deal and no-deal and the implications for financial markets. We also discuss the medium-term implications for the UK economy, whether the UK could become Europe’s Singapore and the implications of the US election.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Analyst and UK economist Mikael Olai Milhøj.
Macro Strategy Views: Slower growth, downside risks but higher equities
Today, we discuss the scenarios for the global economy and what they imply for equities. We argue that growth will slow and risks are skewed on the downside but a possible double-dip recession in 2021 could ease in the later part of the year due to new stimulus and support from China. The balance of risks is for equities to head higher.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of Macro and EM Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen
Macro Strategy Views: How the US election could boost the US economy and equities
Today, we discuss the US election and the implications for the economy and equities. We discuss the degree to which a united democratic government would lead to a demand boost and how this compares with a republican sweep. We discuss the implication of the election for the US’s approach to China and how we believe it will affect global equities. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomas.
Macro Strategy Views: Hawkish Norges Bank and FAITing Riksbank
Today, we discuss why we expect Norges Bank to lift the rate path this week, signalling a full rate hike by Q2 22. We argue why, from a risk-reward perspective, it makes sense to position for higher short-end and belly rates, while any NOK strength is likely to be short lived. We also discuss whether the Fed’s FAIT has implications for the Riksbank. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Chief Economist for Sweden Michael Grahn.
Macro Strategy Views: Inflation at 3% - how to get there?
Today, we discuss what could drive much higher inflation rates over coming years. We discuss a fast recovery, the Fed’s change and its influence on the ECB, monetary financing of expansionary fiscal policies and a political shift to a progressive left in the US and Germany. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj, Euroland economist Aila Mihr and ECB economist and FI strategist Piet Christiansen.
Macro Strategy Views – Reflation, equity rotation and the impact on credit markets
Today, we discuss whether the volatility experienced in particularly equity markets late last week is set to continue. Positioning and retail involvement suggest that more is in store but the macro-drivers - vaccine developments and Fed action – for the reflation theme to continue are still very much in place. We discuss the rotation dynamics in equities and the primary market’s influence on the secondary outlook in credit.
Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen and Credit Strategist Mark Naur.