Probable Causation Jennifer Doleac

Oeindrila Dube is the Philip K. Pearson Professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy.
In this episode, we discuss Prof. Dube's research on a cognitive behavioral training program for police.
“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
"Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert. 
"The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Robert E. Worden, Sarah J. McLean, Robin S. Engel, Hannah Cochran, Nicholas Corsaro, Danielle Reynolds, Cynthia J. Najdowski, and Gabrielle T. Isaza. 
"The impact of implicit bias-oriented diversity training on police officers’ beliefs, motivations, and actions" by Calvin K. Lai and Jaclyn A. Lisnek.
"Does De-escalation Training Work?" by Robin S. Engel, Hannah D. McManus, and Tamara D. Herold. 
"Assessing the Impact of De-escalation Training on Police Behavior: Reducing Police Use of Force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department" by Robin S. Engel, Nicholas Corsaro, Gabrielle T. Isaza, and Hannah D. McManus.
“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour
"Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.
"The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force" by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.


“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.


“The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.


“Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.


“Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.


“As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.


“Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.


“Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.


“The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.
"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.







OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.


“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.


“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.


“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.


“The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.


Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson


"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.


“Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague on Medicaid Access and Recidivism
In this insightful episode, Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague delve into the critical role Medicaid access plays in affecting recidivism rates, drawing on their comprehensive research. Through a discussion that spans health policy, economics, and the intricacies of Medicaid's impact on individuals reentering society post-incarceration, the episode sheds light on the tangible benefits of accessible healthcare services.
Key Research Discussed:
Main Study: "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. This pivotal study forms the episode's backbone, illustrating how Medicaid access can significantly reduce recidivism rates among formerly incarcerated individuals. Read the study.
Additional Research Covered:
The episode also touches on other influential works that explore the intersection of Medicaid eligibility, mental health, and criminal involvement, including studies by Elisa Jacome, Jessica T. Simes, Jaquelyn L. Jahn, Kathryn L. Wagner, Jacob Vogler, Qiwei He, Scott Bardowski, Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings, Crystal S. Yang, Jillian B. Carr, Analisa Packham, Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, James X. Sullivan, Manasi Deshpande, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Cody Tuttle. These works collectively underscore the complex relationship between public health insurance, criminal behavior, and social welfare programs.
Episode Highlights:
Marguerite Burns' Journey: Starting from her experiences as a community health center administrator, Burns shares her transition into a health services researcher focusing on Medicaid's impact on adults with substance use and mental health disorders.
Laura Dague's Path: Dague recounts her evolution from a rural Kansas native with a burgeoning interest in public policy to an expert in health economics, emphasizing Medicaid's role as a critical safety net.
Policy Changes in Wisconsin: The episode delves into Wisconsin's Medicaid policy alterations, including eligibility expansion and pre-release enrollment assistance programs, and their profound impact on Medicaid enrollment among the formerly incarcerated.
Data and Methodology: Burns and Dague discuss the unique dataset they constructed, combining Department of Corrections and Medicaid data to analyze the effects of Medicaid access on recidivism and employment.
Findings and Implications: The significant reduction in reincarceration rates and improvement in employment among those with Medicaid coverage post-release are highlighted. The conversation also explores potential mechanisms behind these effects, underscoring the importance of considering Medicaid access in policy formulations aimed at supporting reentry.
For Further Exploration:
Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility by Elisa Jacome
Probable Causation Episode 60 featuring Elisa Jacome
Additional readings and resources related to Medicaid's consequences on public health, crime reduction, and welfare benefits are provided, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the topic.

“The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests” by Jessica T. Simes and Jaquelyn L. Jahn.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261512
 
“Public health insurance and impacts on crime incidences and mental health" by Kathryn L. Wagner.
https://doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2020-0190
 
"Access to health Care and Criminal Behavior: Evidence form the ACA Medicaid Expansions" by Jacob Vogler.
https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22239
 
"The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion" by Qiwei He and Scott Bardowski.
https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3977
 
"The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-Waiver Expansions" by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, and Janet R. Cummings.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jp

William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.


“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.


Probable Causation Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte.


"One Size Doesn’t Fit All – The Heterogeneous Effects of Prison Programs" by Michael LaForest-Tucker. [Working paper available from the author.]


"Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.
"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.


“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.


“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.


“A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.


“Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.


“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.


“Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.


“The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.


“The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.