Korean Kontext Korea Economic Institute

In April 2023, the United States and South Korea marked the 70th anniversary of an alliance that has served the strategic interests of both countries. Their relationship has expanded beyond security issues to include trade, technology, and other important policy areas. However, the alliance now faces challenges from changing notions of national interests and political polarization in both countries.
On January 16, 2024, KEI hosted a discussion with Scott Snyder, author of The U.S.-Korea Alliance: Why It May Fail and Why It Must Not, on what domestic political developments in both countries mean for the future of the U.S.-Korea alliance.

Building on last year’s "Rethinking Korea initiative," in 2024 KEI will continue to explore the evolution of US-Korea relations, Korea's place in the world, rapid changes in Korean society, and a fast changing geopolitical and strategic landscape. The initiative involves both retrospective inquiry as well as prospective analysis about future trends. Our guest today is intently focused on the role of armed coercion as a tool of foreign policy employed by both the United States and China and how other states perceive and respond to it.
James A. Siebens is a Fellow with Stimson Center’s Reimagining US Grand Strategy program, where he leads the Defense Strategy and Planning project. His research focuses on grand strategy, military coercion, and gray zone conflict. Building on a co-edited volume titled, Military Coercion and U.S. Foreign Policy: The Use of Force Short of War (Routledge 2020), a book on U.S. strategy and military operations since the end of the Cold War, James is also the editor of China’s Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting (Routledge 2023), a recently published study on China’s use of military and paramilitary forces for purposes of coercion.
The second part of our conversation focuses on the application of his analysis to the Korean Peninsula – both historically and in a more contemporary context – and James’ thoughts on what the United States has gotten right and wrong on China and some related policy recommendations.
 
The book, "China's Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting," can be found here.
A shorter piece by James A. Siebens examining the effectiveness of China's use of armed coercion may be found here.

Building on last year’s "Rethinking Korea initiative," in 2024 KEI will continue to explore the evolution of US-Korea relations, Korea's place in the world, rapid changes in Korean society, and a fast changing geopolitical and strategic landscape. The initiative involves both retrospective inquiry as well as prospective analysis about future trends. Our guest today is intently focused on the role of armed coercion as a tool of foreign policy employed by both the United States and China and how other states perceive and respond to it.
James A. Siebens is a Fellow with Stimson Center’s Reimagining US Grand Strategy program, where he leads the Defense Strategy and Planning project. His research focuses on grand strategy, military coercion, and gray zone conflict. Building on a co-edited volume titled, Military Coercion and U.S. Foreign Policy: The Use of Force Short of War (Routledge 2020), a book on U.S. strategy and military operations since the end of the Cold War, James is also the editor of China’s Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting (Routledge 2023), a recently published study on China’s use of military and paramilitary forces for purposes of coercion.
Our conversation is split into two parts, the first of which focuses on: the motivation behind his latest book project and what sets it apart from other work on China; key terms and concepts used throughout the book, such as coercion, deterrence and compellence; and the overall content and structure of the book as well as some of the representative examples of China’s use of armed coercion and whether they were effective.
 
The book, "China's Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting," can be found here.
A shorter piece by James A. Siebens examining the effectiveness of China's use of armed coercion may be found here.

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, North Korea has embraced relations with Russia as a key component of its foreign policy and domestic development. However, Russia’s need for North Korean artillery and weapons to conduct its war in Ukraine also create a different dynamic between the two countries than during the Cold War. This new dynamic and the unknown outcome of the war in Ukraine raise questions about the long-term viability of deepening ties between North Korea and Russia, as well as Pyongyang’s choice to deepen relations with Moscow and to a lesser extent Beijing, rather than seeking to improve relations with Washington and Seoul.
On February 8, 2024, KEI hosted a discussion on these and other issues related to the growing relationship between North Korea and Russia with long-time North Korea expert Dr. Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University.

On August 17, 2023, KEI held a program on the U.S.-South Korea-North Korea Strategic Triangle in the Indo-Pacific Era. The program featured Scott Snyder’s work to help better understand: the evolution in perceptions of the three main actors in the U.S.-South Korea-North Korea triangle, including their respective approaches to one another and interactions with China; the main impacts of U.S.-China rivalry on their respective postures and priorities; and the future trajectory of both U.S.-South Korea-North Korea triangular relations and great power relations in the region.

On August 30, 2023, KEI hosted a discussion with Prof. Rory Medcalf on South Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and Middle Power Convergence with Australia. Over the past decade, the concept of the “Indo-Pacific” has replaced the late 20th century “Asia-Pacific” as a central frame of reference for strategy and external policy. Although the Indo-Pacific is often associated particularly with Japan and its influential prime minister the late Abe Shinzo, in fact, Australia was the first country to formally recognize the Indo-Pacific as its regional security environment. As a fellow middle power and independent-minded U.S. ally, with its own geopolitical complexities to navigate, Australia provides an illuminating example for South Korea as it operationalizes its Indo-Pacific strategy.