The Silence of the Longs Curve Your Enthusiasm

Ian is joined by Craig Bell this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent cheapening of the cash market relative to swaps. Craig discusses the specific factors in the cash market impacting relative valuations, while Ian provides an update on the fair-value estimates from his swap spread modeling work. The elephant in the room is the Canadian long-end, and the richness of 10s30s and cross market. Ian and Craig spend time discussing how we got here and, what needs to happen for this richness to be remediated. Craig and Ian discuss the upcoming Bank of Canada rate decision, and get into a friendly disagreement about the proximate trigger of rate cuts in 2024.