Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

Roaring Kitty is not the problem, nor is Gamestop the company and its stock. All are symptoms of a degraded model that increasingly rewards all the wrong behaviors. Stocks have become lottery tickets, the pie-in-the-sky way out for way too many Americans otherwise trapped in a real economy that continues to leave them behind - as the latest employment report proves. 
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Roaring Kitty Livestream 6/7/2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1prSyyIco0&t=658s
The Hill GameStop shares plunge, halted during Roaring Kitty livestreamhttps://thehill.com/business/4710147-gamestop-shares-trading-roaring-kitty-livestream-meme-stock/
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This has never happened before. Sure, the payroll data and CPS series have diverged before but this is something entirely new. The fact that it runs contrary to decades of history makes our determination rather easy and simple: the labor market noose is tightening. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Big US Job Gains Is Out of Sync With Recent Weaker Economic Datahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-07/us-employment-report-for-may
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After two years unequivocally stating "inflation" was the world's biggest threat and crisis, and that nothing short of full victory would suffice, now all of a sudden Europe (and Canada) is changing it up, cutting rates even as price estimates remain well short of their standard while also appearing to be stuck that way. What is really going on here?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2024/html/ecb.is240606~d32cd6cc8a.en.html
Bank of Canada Rate Cut Announcementhttps://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-policy-rate-announcement-june-2024/
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ADP National Employmenthttps://adpemploymentreport.com/
ADP Pay Insightshttps://payinsights.adp.com/?_ga=2.165121663.1500609015.1717601960-340309474.1717601960
BLS QCEW Overviewhttps://www.bls.gov/cew/overview.htm
BLS QCEW https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.nr0.htm
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

As more weak data pours in on the US economy, the more clarity it offers on the future path of ST interest rates. As that clears up, market rates are moving lower. But why? Mainstream theory demands we consider rates as entirely supply or demand factors (like QE). Yet, the past couple years have thoroughly disproven the idea. Rates are going lower because that's where and what the fundamentals are. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Majority of Middle-Class Americans Say They Struggle Financiallyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/two-thirds-of-middle-class-americans-face-hardship-in-poll?srnd=economics-v2
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A rare warning strikes the gasoline market in another confirmation of economic weakness, one primary factor which forced OPEC this past weekend to extend its production restrictions. On top of those, big changes to US income estimates further corroborating the deterioration, as did a surprise drop in one of the more critical sentiment signals.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters Weak US gasoline demand compounds pressure on oil ahead of OPEC+ meethttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/weak-us-gasoline-demand-compounds-pressure-oil-ahead-opec-meet-2024-05-31/
Nikkei  OPEC+ extends deep oil production cuts into 2025https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/OPEC-extends-deep-oil-production-cuts-into-2025
ISM Manufacturing May 2024https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/may/
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU