Capitol Crude: The US Oil Policy Podcast S&P Global Platts

Guyana is one of the most promising new sources for non-OPEC oil production growth, and the country just emerged from a chaotic five-month election drama. Opposition leader Mohamed Irfaan Ali was sworn into office as the country's new president last week.
The small South American country is home to the biggest oil discovery in recent years. In January, ExxonMobil boosted its reserves estimate for the Stabroek Block to more than 8 billion barrels.
Tristan Reilly of S&P Global Platts Analytics shares a quick history of the discovery, some of the next production targets expected and what oil prices would be needed for additional development.
Lisa Viscidi, director of the Inter-American Dialogue's energy, climate change and extractive industries program, gets into more detail about the disputed election, the newly inaugurated president and the implications for Guyana's oil future.
She also took us through some quick hits on the other top oil stories in Latin America: Venezuela's collapse, Mexico's attempts at self-sufficiency, and Brazil's double struggle with the oil price collapse and the coronavirus.

US oil producers have started bringing some shut-in wells back online since this spring's price crash.
S&P Global Platts Analytics expects the nearly all the shut-in volumes to come back by October. But US oil output will continue to decline as a result of some $41 billion in capital expenditure cuts announced by drillers this year.
Ash Singh, manager of non-OPEC supply at Platts Analytics, expects US production to decline around 500,000 b/d year on year in 2020 and more than 1.5 million b/d in 2021. That would put US output about 3.4 million b/d below Platts' pre-price collapse forecast by end-2021.
We asked Singh about which US basins would come back first, how a potential Dakota Access Pipeline shutdown would impede the Bakken's return, and what's happening with other non-OPEC producers outside of the US and Canada.
Singh also shares his outlook for US crude exports and whether second-wave coronavirus outbreaks or rising US-China tensions will alter that picture.

A massive regulatory shift could occur if US President Donald Trump loses the White House in November.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has embraced energy and climate priorities that swing further left than many of the Obama administration’s, as evidenced by his recently announced four-year, $2 trillion climate plan focused on clean energy infrastructure and jobs.
We spoke with David Livingston, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, to help us understand the potential shift that is in store. He said that while some regulatory changes could burden companies, Biden's proposals could also offer opportunities for the sector.

US President Donald Trump has used the phrase "take the oil" many times, both as a candidate to criticize previous administrations' strategies in Iraq and while in the White House when discussing Syria.
The idea is rooted in the belief that countries have gone to war in the past to grab natural resources, especially oil.
This week's guest scrutinized that idea in her new book, "The Oil Wars Myth." Emily Meierding, an assistant professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, analyzed more than 600 international military disputes between 1912 and 2010, and determined that classic oil wars are a myth.
She argues this myth creates a collective intellectual blind spot that continues to shape contemporary foreign policy choices.
We talk about how the idea of oil wars shapes US foreign policy, how the global shift toward oil supply abundance changes this debate, and how current low oil revenues could pose security risks and increase regional aggression.

Last week delivered some huge news on the pipeline front that highlights the challenges ahead for the US midstream sector and the fate of future efforts to build multi-state energy projects.
First Duke Energy and Dominion Energy announced they were canceling the Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline after already spending more than $3 billion on it.
Then a federal judge ordered Energy Transfer to shut down the Dakota Access crude pipeline and empty it of oil by August 5 while the Army Corps of Engineers conducts a more extensive environmental review.
Finally, the Supreme Court said the Army Corps can resume a fast-track permitting process called the Nationwide Permit 12 -- on all pipelines except for TC Energy's Keystone XL heavy crude pipeline from Canada, extending the more than decade-long uncertainty for that project.
James Coleman, an energy law professor at Southern Methodist University, joins us to walk through the possible scenarios for Dakota Access in the next month, as well as the broader uncertainty hanging over the midstream sector and the major shift in US pipeline regulation expected if Joe Biden beats President Trump in November.

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and a host of other global tensions and trade conflicts brewing in recent months have heightened geopolitical risks to energy trade.
Harvard University professor Meghan O'Sullivan shares what she sees as the top geopolitical themes likely to persist beyond the pandemic.
O'Sullivan is the director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. She was a special assistant to former US President George W. Bush and a deputy national security adviser.
She sees three main themes dominating: global energy abundance, the interconnectedness of oil markets and efforts to accelerate the energy transition.
We also talked about whether a stunted US shale sector will weaken the impact of US sanctions and other foreign policy, the US' role around OPEC+ talks, and a potential decoupling of the US and China.