"Live Players" with Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg Turpentine

This episode features Erik and Samo's 2nd-ever interview for the Venture Stories podcast, an in-depth discussion of geopolitics, statecraft, and the study of society. It was recorded in 2019. They cover: how might cryptocurrencies increase centralized state power? What do our economic analyses miss when they do not look inside the inner workings of companies? How do media companies drive news narratives?
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Also discussed: Democracy, capitalism, and the Hong Kong protests. ​​Silicon Valley’s startup culture as it contrasts with corporate culture as descended from IBM. ​​Free trade, domestic protectionism, and subsidy of foreign exports as trade strategies for developing nations: lessons from Japan, South Korea, and pre-1980s Iran. Kissinger’s approach to geopolitics. Gorbachev and Deng Xiaoping, and Marxism’s legacy. ​​​The political future of the European Union and the economic future of the Indian Ocean. Systems of immigration in France, Canada, the U.S., and Japan. ​Predictions for meaning-making in the modern era.

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SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | HARMONIC

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🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine during your demo.
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Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns
Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,
Spotify
Apple
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LINKS:

Samo’s Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
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FOLLOW US ON X:
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@samoburja (Samo)
@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:50) Exploring Alternatives to Democracy and the Rise of CEO-Driven Countries
(02:03) The Complexities of Government Transparency and Military Interventions
(02:57) Analyzing Authoritarian Elements in Societies and the Hong Kong Protests
(07:25) Sponsor: Beehiiv | Harmonic
(09:35) The Influence of Economic Growth and Technology on Global Politics
(13:37) Silicon Valley vs. Corporate America: A Battle of Cultures
(15:01) The Future of Media: Silicon Valley's Integration with East Coast Media
(28:04) Navigating the Complexities of Progress and Environmental Sustainability
(35:21) Lessons from Historical Civilizations to Avoid Modern Decline
(39:06) The Evolution of Whistleblowers and Heterodoxy
(39:57) Reforming Societies: Historical Insights
(40:51) Marx's Legacy and Predictions for the Future
(43:28) China's Rising Influence and Global Shifts
(45:43) Europe's Political Stability and Economic Challenges
(48:44) The Future of Globalization and Regional Blocks
(51:59) Decentralization, Blockchain, and State Power
(55:09) Sovereign Individuals and Legal Jurisdictions
(58:26) Immigration Policies and Cultural Integration
(1:02:27) Globalization vs. Localization: Future Scenarios
(1:06:11) Addressing Global Challenges: Climate Change and AI
(1:09:54) Religion's Role in the Future
(1:14:45) Wrap

This week Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss India as a live player. They cover: India's demographics and the barriers it faces towards industrialization and wealth.
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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
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SPONSOR: HARMONIC
🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine during your demo.
---
Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns
Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,
Spotify
Apple
---
LINKS:
Samo’s Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
---
FOLLOW US ON X:
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@samoburja (Samo)
@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:28) Diving Deep into India's Demographics and Future Prospects
(04:07) The Economic and Social Implications of India's Aging Population
(07:23) India's Talent and Labor Force in the Global Context
(10:06) Institutional Barriers and Governance Challenges in India
(14:15) The Geopolitical Landscape: India, China, and Global Dynamics
(19:53) Sponsor: Harmonic
(21:00) If You're Betting On India, You're Betting On a Multipolar World
(27:16) India's Digital and Economic Strategy for the Future
(32:20) Comparing India and China: Leadership and Economic Strategies
(32:33) The Impact of Brain Drain and Language Proficiency
(33:46) Globalization's Influence on Regional Economies
(36:56) India's Potential Partnerships and Geopolitical Strategy
(38:14) The Future of India: Recommendations and Challenges
(45:14) India's Political Economy and the Need for Reform
(52:41) Navigating Globalization: A Skeptical Perspective
(57:37) India's Demographic Dynamics and Education System
(59:55) India's Geopolitical Strategy
(1:01:09) Wrap

This is a special re-airing of an episode Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg taped for Venture Stories (Village Global's podcast) in 2019 . Their conversation covers the following: the distinction between invention vs. adoption of technology. What a truly egalitarian society might like, and whether such a society can exist. How individuals’ personal theories of history have influenced outcomes in the past, from the USSR’s espionage of the Manhattan project to Christianity & the Roman elites. The U.S. government as an institution under Great Founder Theory, and its foreign policy in the 20th and 21st centuries. Lee Kuan Yew and Singapore, and Paul Kagame and Rwanda. Patronage as a social technology used by the Chinese Communist Party. To what extent China’s social stability is dependent upon the promise of growth. Bureaucratic legibility as a key mechanism by which technology is a centralizing force.
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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
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REFERENCED ARTICLES:
“Functional Institutions are the Exception” https://samoburja.com/functional-institutions-are-the-exception/
“How Roman Emperors Handled the Succession Problem” https://samoburja.com/how-roman-emperors-handled-the-succession-problem/
“Intellectual Dark Matter” https://www.samoburja.com/intellectual-dark-matter/
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SPONSOR: HARMONIC
🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.
---
Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns
Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,
Spotify
Apple
---
LINKS:
Samo’s Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
---
FOLLOW US ON X:
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@samoburja (Samo)
@whatifalthist (Rudyard)
@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:11) Exploring Civilizations: Flourish, Decay, and the Immortal Society
(02:44) The Role of Society and Institutions in Shaping Civilization
(04:07) Understanding Human Nature and the Impact of Institutions
(05:06) The Dynamics of Flourishing vs. Decaying Institutions
(08:40) Great Founder Theory vs. Technological Determinism
(09:54) Government Innovation and Cultural Shifts
(14:50) Rethinking Democracy and Governance
(19:26) Designing Cities for Outliers: A Controversial Idea
(23:07) Egalitarianism, Status, and Happiness in Societies
(23:11) Sponsor: Turpentine
(31:43) Understanding Mimetic Desire and Social Dynamics
(34:19) The Role of Egalitarianism and Social Hierarchies
(36:22) Prioritizing Outliers for Societal Wealth and Innovation
(39:35) Theories of History and Political Dynamics
(51:43) Recommendation for U. S. Foreign Policy
(56:20) Globalization vs. Innovation: Navigating the Future
(58:20) Centralization vs. Decentralization in the Future Society
(59:10) Succession, Fertility, and the Future of Societies
(1:01:34) Closing Thoughts on Centralization and Innovation
(1:02:29) Wrap

Today we're dropping a special episode of History 102 with Rudyard Lynch (@Whatifalthist on YouTube). Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg delve into the critical moments and competing narratives of the fall of the Roman Empire. They compare the classical Greeks and Romans, identify key Roman figures and outsiders who impacted the course of history, and identify the major influences that shaped their era - and our current one.
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Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns
Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,
Spotify
Apple
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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
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RECOMMENDED BOOKS:

The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon

The World of Late Antiquity: AD 150-750 (Library of World Civilization) by Peter Brown

Empires and Barbarians: The Fall of Rome and the Birth of Europe by Peter Heather

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SPONSOR: HARMONIC
🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.
---
LINKS:
Samo’s Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
---
FOLLOW US ON X:
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@samoburja (Samo)
@whatifalthist (Rudyard)
@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Introduction to History 102's The Fall of Rome
(00:14) Context and Theories
(03:11) The Rise of Rome: From Village to Empire
(24:52) The Huns' Invasion and Its Impact
(40:06) Post-Roman Empire: The Birth of New Civilizations
(48:04) Reflecting on Rome's Legacy and Modern Comparisons
(52:02) Recommended Reading

In this episode Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the current state and future state of America, China, Russia, Ukraine, energy, the US dollar, AI, Peter Zeihan, Balaji Srinivasan, and more. This episode was recorded in 2023 for the Upstream podcast - before the two started Live Players. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
--
Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns
Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,
Spotify
Apple
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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
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SPONSOR: HARMONIC | BRAVE
🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.

Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to  https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
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LINKS:
Samo’s Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Episode preview
(00:58) Who’s right: Balaji, Zeihan, or Olson?
(05:00) Why China’s prospects aren’t as bad as Zeihan thinks
(07:28) What have we learned one year out after Ukraine?
(11:15) Future of The U.S. dollar
(13:11) Sponsor: Turpentine | Brave
(13:10) Balaji’s Bet
(14:57) Future of America
(19:20) Why Brazil hasn’t panned out
(21:00) Is AI communist and crypto libertarian
(26:53) Evolution of elites
(31:04) Comparing Elon and SBF
(33:29) Economics of automation and AI
(37:23) How intellectual culture has changed
(45:07) America and China converging
(47:27) Startup cities vs incumbents
(50:14) Bismarck Analysis
(52:56) Samo’s upcoming research interests
(55:04) Wrap

In this conversation, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss Alibaba after Jack Ma's exit and analyze the Chinese Economy. With 1.3 billion users and $135 billion in revenue, Alibaba is like China's version of PayPal, Amazon, and Walmart combined. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.
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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Autopilot explores the adoption and rollout of AI in the industries that drive the economy and the dynamic founders bringing rapid change to slow-moving industries. From law, to hardware, to aviation, Will Summerlin interviews founders backed by Benchmark, Greylock, and more to learn how they're automating at the frontiers in entrenched industries.

Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6YQZkKHN7EP2yWedAvSxBC?si=18377c69a2804333
Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/autopilot-with-will-summerlin/id1738163836.

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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

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SPONSOR: HARMONIC | BRAVE
🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.

Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to  https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.

—

LINKS:
Samo’s Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:28) What Happen to Alibaba after Jack Ma’s Departure
(00:44) Alibaba: From Revolutionary to Incumbent
(16:06) Sponsor: Brave | Turpentine
(17:53) Jack Ma’s Influence
(21:58) Who’s In Charge in China
(25:39) Pushing Away Jack Ma
(31:50) Losing the Economic Advantage
(42:24) China’s Ambitions and Realities
(47:56) Alibaba's Future
(54:16) Wrap