DHUnplugged #697: YesNo Rate Cuts DHUnplugged Podcast

A WINNER - CTP for Rumble

A new CTP to announce!

Club 72 Thank You

Solar Eclipse

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Warm Up
- A WINNER - CTP for Rumble
- A new CTP to announce!
- Club 72
- Solar Eclipse

Market Update
- Boeing issues continue
- Oil market on fire
- Yellen - talking tariffs again
- Kashkari and others on cuts
- Earnings season starts this week

Lucky CLUB 72
Jonathan Farris
Mark Studebaker
William Palmer
Susan Erickson
Terrence Cleary
Anonymous (2)

Fed Walking All Back
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that at the U.S. central bank's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end.
- "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said during an interview with Pensions & Investments. "There's a lot of momentum in the economy right now."

Walking Forward
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it's possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting.
- "While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,"

Who is the best?
-If you were wondering about the track record of the Fed Chair's performance over time, it's worth delving into the historical data.
- Overall, the track record of Fed Chairs over time reflects the challenges and complexities of managing monetary policy in a dynamic and ever-changing economic environment. Each Chair has faced unique circumstances and challenges during their tenure, and their actions have had far-reaching implications for financial markets and the economy as a whole.



 

Whispers
- Hearing that the car business - used and new having one of the worst years on record (from selective car salespeople)
- Same as above on lower end boat business (sales)
- U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday.
- The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98.
- - Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, reflecting higher input and labor costs, up 2 points from February. The share of businesses raising average selling prices rose 7 points from the prior month.

Inflation Data and ECO
- CPI and PPI this week
- CPI expectations are 0.4% MoM for March
--- Many are sahing that this is a clean month without odd seasonal factors - so something to watch
- - 10 Yr at 4.378%
----------- FOMC minutes at 2:00 Wednesday
-- Last week - Employment situation continues to be strong - 3.8% Unemployment rate 300k added to payrolls (Wage growth was okay)

Earnings Season - Banks in Focus
- Banks are expected to see some decline in earnings over the period
- Focus on net interest margin as well as credit deterioration (and days outstanding)
- However, YoY - earnings growth for some look pretty good
- - - - Property & Casualty Insurance (87%), Reinsurance (62%), Life & Health Insurance (12%), and Multi-line Insurance (12%).

REMOTE WORK on the sea