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[i3] Podcast [i3] Podcast

    • Wirtschaft

The Investment Innovation Institute [i3] is committed to better investment outcomes through education. You can subscribe to our complimentary newsletter at: https://i3-invest.com/subscribe/

    Interview with Tim Buckley IEEFA

    Interview with Tim Buckley IEEFA

    Note: This podcast was recorded before Blackrock announced to divest from thermal coal in its active strategies.

    Climate change has been a divisive issue in the investment world, as many investors struggle to articulate the impact of this development on their portfolios.

    But Tim Buckley brings clarity to this discussion with a sharp analytical framework of how climate change and the ongoing transition to a low carbon economy will impact corporations and, ultimately, institutional investors.

    After all, you don't want to be left holding the 'canals of the 21st century' in your portfolio.

    Tim is a Director of Energy Finance Studies, Australasia at IEEFA, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. He spent most of his career in the asset management industry, including 16 years at Citigroup, where he was Head of Equity Research.

    Overview of Tim Buckley podcast:

    1:00 You were involved in equity research. How did you get into the climate change sector?
    1:35 Chinese companies were involved in clean technologies that we were conceiving off in the West
    4:30 Focusing on the energy sector
    7:00 What was an example of an interesting Chinese energy technology disruptor when you were investing?
    9:00 Next Era Energy CEO predicts renewable deflation of 50 per cent in the next 5 - 10 years
    9:30 Clean energy in Japan after Fukushima
    13:00 Nuclear energy is low emission, but is it really sustainable?
    14:30 What are the major risk from climate change for investors? Let’s take a look at what Mark Carney, Bank of England, estimates.
    16:00 The train wreck is coming, but the sooner the better because financial markets will adapt
    17:00 Do you look at climate change risks as unaccounted-for costs?
    19:00 Stranded assets and why they matter.
    21:00 Coal will have a market share of zero per cent by 2030
    23:00 Are funds already holding stranded assets? Oh yes!
    25:00 Let’s just put a price on carbon and let investors make an informed decision.
    26:00 Infrastructure investors will be a core part of the solution
    28:00 Talking about divestments: how far can you go before running into fiduciary issues?
    30:00 You have a fiduciary duty to factor in a known risk.
    36:00 Some of the developing economies are further ahead on transitioning to low carbon than the developed world.
    39:00 The disruptive technologies are truly disruptive; it is not just positive. It will destroy more shareholder value than it creates. It is a risk that needs to be addressed.
    42:00 Who will be the winners of this disruption?
    45:30 Tail risks, an example of General Electric

    • 48 Min.
    Interview with Greg Cooper

    Interview with Greg Cooper

    Greg Cooper was for many years the Chief Executive Officer for Schroder Investment Management in Australia. More recently, he joined TCorp, the AU$ 93 billion government asset manager for the state of NSW, as chair of the investment committee and non-executive director. We speak with Greg about whether public markets are broken, the state of active management and his interest in the venture capital space.

    Greg Cooper podcast overview:

    1:00 Starting out in actuarial studies
    3:00 Focussing on Japanese equities
    4:00 Compared to 1986, Japanese equities are still at the same level
    5:00 What were some of the highlights of your career at Schroders?
    6:50 We’ve moved on from strategic asset allocation
    7:55 As a CEO, don’t be afraid of what others think and try to draw out ideas
    9:35 Are public markets broken?
    11:00 Not having a well-developed VC industry means that a lot of good ideas get starved of capital and eventually go offshore
    11:30 Will that change when the effect of QE goes away?
    15:00 No investor is entirely passive.
    16:30 Passive rose, because active had too large a share, but you can’t have a 100 per cent passive investment market
    17:30 Will value-style investing come back?
    21:30 You have an interest in fintech and hold a board position at OpenInvest?
    25:00 Joining the TCorp board and chairing the investment committee

    • 30 Min.
    Interview with Vijoy Chattergy

    Interview with Vijoy Chattergy

    Vijoy Chattergy is the founder and president of VMLH, a consulting firm for global institutional investors. Previously, Vijoy was Chief Investment Officer of the US$17.5 billion State of Hawai‘i Employees Retirement System. He is well known for implementing an investment philosophy that focuses on functional risk classes instead of asset classes, which led him to create a Crisis Risk Offset sleeve to the portfolio.
    This podcast was recorded at the [i3] Asset Allocation Forum 2019 in Bowral, Australia. We spoke about the function of complexity in portfolios and how to set effective governance frameworks around this.

    Overview of Vijoy Chattergy podcast:

    2:30 How did you get started in the investment industry?
    5:00 What are some of the differences and similarities between Australian and US pension funds, you find?
    10:45 As CIO you want to make key decisions, not all the decisions.
    14:00 Does the size of the organisation come into play when designing a governance policy?
    16:45 Governance is different from culture building
    18:10 Does governance add to returns?
    21:00 Where does the member come into the governance process?
    22:00 Can we address the issue of peer risk through governance?
    24:44 Should complexity be embraced and how would you communicate it?
    27:45 Complexity should have a function in the portfolio.
    29:30 Using functional risk classes
    32:00 Should board directors be experts in asset management?
    35:00 Implementing a crisis risk offset class

    • 37 Min.
    Interview with Fiona Trafford-Walker

    Interview with Fiona Trafford-Walker

    Fiona Trafford-Walker is one of the world’s most respected asset consultants. Trafford-Walker is a founding member of Frontier Advisors and has advised many of Australia’s largest pension funds on their investment strategy. Currently, she is a Director and member of the Investment Committee at Frontier, but has announced to leave the company on 6 December 2019 to focus on her directorships.
    She is a Non-Executive Director at the Link Group, Prospa Group and the Victorian Funds Management Corporation and a member of the Investment Committee at the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute.
    Trafford-Walker was named as one of the Top 10 global asset consultants by CIO Magazine from 2013 to 2016 inclusive. She was also announced as a winner in The AFR and Westpac 100 Women of Influence Awards for 2016 in the Board/management category.
    In this podcast, we look back on her 25 years with Frontier, her career as an asset consultant and discuss a variety of topics, including manager selection, asset allocation and the changing landscape pension funds face today.

    Overview Fiona Trafford-Walker podcast:

    2:30 I’m an accidental asset consultant
    4:30 You’re named as one of the most influential asset consultants in the industry. What makes a good asset consultant?
    5:35 You have to be willing to collaborate
    7:00 Technical skills are very important, but equally important is time in the markets
    7:30 The changing role of asset consultants over the years
    9:30 As asset consultants have increased their senior staff, have conversations become more focused on strategy?
    10:30 There is still the need to have a blend of specialist and generalist skills
    11:50 Are we already heading to having a panel of asset consultants?
    13:00 Is there a good balance between the time spend on manager research and that on asset allocation?
    14:30 What type of data should inform changes in asset allocation?
    16:00 There is not much you can do about geopolitical risk; predicting what politicians are going to do next is pretty hard.
    16:30 But trade wars are a real thing that have an effect on markets
    18:00 Are the struggles of active managers, particularly value managers, structural or cyclical?
    19:00 There seems to be a need to tweak the value process to allow for the new capital-light business models. But at what stage do you get style drift?
    21:30 Frontier Advisors took the decision to build a platform with all their research on it, quite a brave step in an era where softcopies get distributed easily.
    26:00 You spent some time arguing for lower fees in the industry. Are we at the right level?
    27:30 The real change has been the internalisation of asset management by some funds.
    29:00 Can internalisation refocus asset management on the long term?
    30:00 Bottom draw mandates
    31:00 To what extent should asset owners engage with the companies they invest in? You are on a number of boards and see both sides?
    33:00 Governance certainly has changed as asset owners realise they are the beneficial owners
    35:00 To what degree can you divest from companies as a fiduciary?
    38:00 The challenge of developing retirement products
    41:00 At the moment, the willingness to do things together [as funds] isn’t there.
    42:00 What is next in store for you?
    44:00 What issues come up in mentoring new asset consultants?

    • 47 Min.
    Interview with Ned Davis Research

    Interview with Ned Davis Research

    MarketFox columnist Daniel Grioli speaks with Tim Hayes, Chief Global Investment Strategist, Joe Kalish, Chief Global Macro Strategist and Ed Clissold, Chief US Strategist of Ned Davis Research about multi-asset portfolios, asset allocation, the rules of research and the inevitability of making mistakes. Ned Davis Research is one of the largest independent institutional investment research providers in the US market. It combines both fundamental and technical research disciplines, and adheres to the adage: 'making money is more important than being right'.

    Overview Ned Davis Research

    2:00 What are some of the lessons you’ve learned the hard way?
    3:30 Joe: Ned always said: ‘Everyone makes mistakes. But the difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes’.
    9:30 Ned’s nine rules for interpreting markets
    15:00 The importance of being open to new techniques and datasets.
    17:00 Joe adds on a 10th rule
    20:50 A lot of people said they called the housing market in 2007, but I’m actually quite proud that we called when it was time to get back in 2009.
    27:00 Pay attention to correlations. Sometimes things are changing.
    28:30 How do you use base rates?
    30:00 Sometimes we are known as myth busters, because we blow up some common [held believes]. One of them is about the yield-curve inversion.
    34:00 Really good earnings growth is usually priced in when it gets announced and so is not good for price levels.
    36:40 We looked at 25 different value indicators to see which ones have done better over the years
    41:00 This has probably been the biggest divergence in the last 10 years of what happens in the US and what happens in the global markets.
    45:30 Ed: If you look at the US right now, it actually doesn’t look that bad.
    45:49 Joe: I start with a top down view
    47:37 You can’t just look at change anymore, you have to look at the second derivative: the change of change
    51:20 This is not the most exciting time in the bond market
    52:00 What is the difference between trend and market timing?
    54:45 You need to pay attention to the trend
    58:00 The value of asset allocation
    1:06:00 Make sure you’ve got that disciplined process in place to make trend decisions
    1:08:00 We only forecast for fun, but we pay attention to the indicators
    1:12:00 What is a mistake? It can be different things to different people
    1:15:00 Has your analysis been impacted by current market conditions of central bank policy and algorithmic trading?
    1:22:00 What are you working on at the moment?
    1:28:00 Tips to make better investment decisions

    • 1 Std. 32 Min.
    MarketFox Interview with Tobias Carlisle

    MarketFox Interview with Tobias Carlisle

    Tobias Carlisle is a deep value investor and founder of Acquirers Funds. He is author of the best-selling books 'The Acquirer’s Multiple', 'Deep Value', 'Concentrated Investing' and 'Quantitative Value'.
    Tobias has extensive experience in activist investment, company valuation, public company corporate governance, and mergers and acquisitions law. He has also worked as an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer.
    More recently, Tobias launched a deep value ETF, The Acquirers Fund (ticker: ZIG), which holds long positions in deeply undervalued, fundamentally strong targets for activists and buyout firms, and short positions in overvalued, financially weak companies. It started trading on the NYSE Arca in May this year.

    Overview of Tobias Carlisle podcast

    3:00 I was working as a lawyer in M&A when the tech crash happened
    8:00 There is this phenomenon in deep value where the worse the quality, the better the performance tend to be.
    12:00 Developing a quantitative value metric without the quality metric gives you better raw performance.
    13:00 Daniel: if you test Joel Greenblatt’s magic formula on Australian stocks it pushes you into all these mining companies.
    16:00 The spread between the most undervalued and overvalued stocks are at historic widths.
    19:00 There are secular issues with price to book measures.
    20:00 Factors give this nice impression that it is scientific and filters out human emotion, but the rules change all the time.
    30:00 It is hard to short a cult
    32:00 Shorting on valuation is not the way to short; you want financial distress
    33:00 Keep shorting positions small
    36:00 Why launch the fund as an ETF and not as a mutual fund?
    40:00 Do you have sector constraints?
    43:00 Shannon's Demon
    45:00 The Kelly Criterion
    53:00 Criticism of using EBITDA metrics
    57:00 There is a machine learning component to the analysis
    1:00:00 Most investors are better off to hold a low cost index fund, but I believe that over the long term a value strategy will outperform the market
    1:01:00 There is a paper that says value investors win at the expense of other value investors.
    1:04:00 Blending managers is a difficult puzzle to solve.
    1:09:00 The rise of the fourth Buffett
    1:10:30 Which lessons have you learned the hard way? …. All of them
    1:13:00 We are all cognitively impaired.

    • 1 Std. 18 Min.

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