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Researchers and regulators are working to compress the typical six-to-10-year time frame it usually takes for vaccines to get developed, approved and marketed to the public.

U.S. President Donald Trump has proclaimed developing one would take a few months. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it could be on the market before the fall.

Experts’ estimates are less exaggerated. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) says a vaccineis at least one year away, but even this is optimistic.

“There’s no question about it. Time is not on our side” — Lincoln Tsang, expert in vaccine approval

The truth, according to many public health experts, is that it’s impossible to predict with much certainty how long it will take before a vaccine is widely available. What’s undeniable is that no matter how much money and expertise are thrown at the effort, or how much regulatory red tape is cut, there are steps of the process that simply cannot be sped up.

“It could be [that] the first vaccine works perfectly … and we’ll get there faster than even I expect,” said Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. “But I wouldn’t want to get people’s hopes up.”
The hope is that lockdowns will slow the spread of the disease, and in the meantime, a vaccine will be deployed that will safely build herd immunity in the population. But in the time it takes to develop, approve and produce a vaccine, the virus might have already spread its way around the globe. Even by the most optimistic estimates, 12 months might be too late.

“There’s no question about it,” said Lincoln Tsang, a partner at the law firm Arnold & Porter and an expert in vaccine approval. “Time is not on our side.”

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