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Die Universitätsbibliothek (UB) verfügt über ein umfangreiches Archiv an elektronischen Medien, das von Volltextsammlungen über Zeitungsarchive, Wörterbücher und Enzyklopädien bis hin zu ausführlichen Bibliographien und mehr als 1000 Datenbanken reicht. Auf iTunes U stellt die UB unter anderem eine Auswahl an elektronischen Publikationen der Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler an der LMU bereit. (Dies ist der 1. von 3 Teilen der Sammlung 'Mathematik, Informatik und Statistik - Open Access LMU'.)

Comparing Different Estimators in a Nonlinear Measurement Error Model

## Comparing Different Estimators in a Nonlinear Measurement Error Model

A nonlinear structural errors-in-variables model is investigated, where the response variable has a density belonging to an exponential family and the error-prone covariate follows a Gaussian distribution. Assuming the error variance to be known, we consider two consistent estimators in addition to the naive estimator. We compare their relative efficiencies by means of their asymptotic covariance matrices for small error variances. The structural quasi score (SQS) estimator is based on a quasi score function, which is constructed from a conditional mean-variance model. Consistency and asymptotic normality of this estimator is proved. The corrected score (CS) estimator is based on an error-corrected likelihood score function. For small error variances the SQS and CS estimators are approximately equally efficient. The polynomial model and the Poisson regression model are explored in greater detail.

The Tail of the Stationary Distribution of a Random Coefficient AR(q) Model

## The Tail of the Stationary Distribution of a Random Coefficient AR(q) Model

We investigate a stationary random cofficient autoregressive process. Using renewal type arguments tailor-made for such processes we show that the stationary distribution has a power-law tail. When the model is normal, we show that the model is in distribution equivalent to an autoregressive process with ARCH errors. Hence we obtain the tail behaviour of any such model of arbitrary order.

Application of Survival Analysis Methods to Long Term Care Insurance

## Application of Survival Analysis Methods to Long Term Care Insurance

With the introduction of compulsory long term care (LTC) insurance in Germany in 1995, a large claims portfolio with a significant proportion of censored observations became available. In first part of this paper we present an analysis of part of this portfolio using the Cox proportional hazard model (Cox, 1972) to estimate transition intensities. It is shown that this approach allows the inclusion of censored observations as well as the inclusion of time dependent risk factors such as time spent in LTC. This is in contrast to the more commonly used Poisson regression with graduation approach (see for example Renshaw and Haberman 1995) where censored observations and time dependent risk factors are ignored. In the second part we show how these estimated transition intensities can be used in a multiple state Markov process (see Haberman and Pitacco, 1999) to calculate premiums for LTC insurance plans.

Modelling Data from Inside of Earth: Local Smoothing of Mean and Dispersion Structure in Deep Drill Data

## Modelling Data from Inside of Earth: Local Smoothing of Mean and Dispersion Structure in Deep Drill Data

In this paper we analyse data originating from the German Deep Drill Program. We model the amount of 'cataclastic rocks' in a series of measurements taken from deep drill samples ranging from 1000 up to 5000 meters depth. The measurements thereby describe the amount of strongly deformed rock particles and serve as indicator for the occurrence of cataclastic shear zones, which are easily speaking areas of severely 'ground' stones due to movements of different layers in the earth crust. The data represent a 'depth series' as analogue to a 'time series', with mean, dispersion and correlation structure varying in depth. The general smooth structure is thereby disturbed by peaks and outliers so that robust procedures have to be applied for estimation. In terms of statistical modelling technology we have to tackle three different peculiarities of the data simultaneously, that is estimation of the correlation structure, local bandwidth selection and robust smoothing. To do so, existing routines are adapted and combined in new 'two stage' estimation procedures.

Risk Management with Extreme Value Theory

## Risk Management with Extreme Value Theory

In this paper we review certain aspects around the Value-at-Risk, which is nowadays the industry benchmark risk measure. As a small quantile (usually 1%) Value-at-Risk is closely related to extreme value theory. We explain an estimation method based on extreme value theory. Since the variance of the estimated Value-at-Risk may depend on the dependence structure of the data, we investigate the extreme behaviour of some of the most prominent time series models in finance, continuous as well as discrete time models. We also determine optimal portfolios, when risk is measured by the Value-at-Risk. Again we use realistic models, moving away from the traditional Black-Scholes model to the class of Lévy processes. This paper is the contribution to a book by several authors on Extreme Value Theory, which will appear by CRC/Chapman and Hall.

Model Selection for Dags via RJMCMC for the Discrete and Mixed Case

## Model Selection for Dags via RJMCMC for the Discrete and Mixed Case

Based on a reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm which was developed by Fronk and Giudici (2000) to deal with model selection for Gaussian dags, we propose a new approach for the pure discrete case. Here, the main idea is to introduce latent variables which then allow to fall back on the already treated continuous case. This makes it also straightforward to tackle the mixed case, i.e. to deal simultaneously with continuous and discrete variables. The performance of the approach is investigated by means of a simulation study for different standard situations. In addition, a real data application is provided.

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