The Week Ahead: Is There Too Much Hope Priced Into the Market‪?‬ Advisorpedia's The Week Ahead Podcast, Powered by Tematica Research

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Markets last week

Bulls are dominating - latest Investor Intelligence poll

up to 61.2% bull from 60.8% prior week

Bears down to 15.3% from prior 15.5%

Key Economic Data and Related Events LAST WEEK

Seeing further signs of slowing in geographies that were the first to pull out of the pandemic:


China’s GDP in Q2 rose 7.9% YoY, slower than the expected 8.1% increase, and 1.3% QoQ after rising 18.3% YoY and a downwardly revised 0.4% QoQ respectively in Q1. 


Global inflation remains tame:


Italy’s Inflation Rate for June was unchanged with May’s 1.3% reading, matching expectations.


DOMESTIC INFLATION

Last week’s release of the Consumer Price Index for June found that prices rose 0.9% MoM, nearly 2x the expected 0.5% increase, and were up 5.4% YoY. Both the MoM and YoY increases were at their fastest pace since 2008. Ex-food and energy prices rose 4.5%, the fastest pace since November 1991 and well above the Fed’s 2.0% long-run target pace.

RETAIL SALES STRONGER THAN EXPECTED

Retail Sales for June came in stronger than expected for June, rising 0.6% MoM from a downwardly revised -1.7% contraction in May.

JOBLESS CLAIMS


Came in at 360k, slightly above expectations for 350k and prior week revised upward to 386k from 373k. 
Typical tight labor market has just over 200k.
If companies are having such a tough time finding talent, why 2x on firings?


Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK


Monday - NAHB Housing market index
Tuesday - Building Permits, Housing Starts
Thursday -  Weekly jobless claims (last week hit a pandemic low, but still well above 200k (ish) we should be seeing), Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales
Friday - Markit Non Manufacturing PMI (flash), Markit Services PMI (flash)


Coming up…. 

Monday, July 19: 


AutoNation (AN) - cars
JB Hunt (JBHT) - west coast port issues


Tuesday, July 20: 


Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG:NYSE) - food and drinking places crushed it in 2Q per Retail sales but input costs vs. price increases
Netflix (NFLX) - growth in streamers esp outside the US, content spending, games
United Airlines (UAL).


Wednesday, July 21: 


Coca-Cola (KO)  - away from home and non sugar beverage demand
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - What is Vegas like baby? 


Thursday, July 22:  


DR Horton (DHI) - housing demand
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) - tough comps year over year - how is it navigating the return to dining out? Is it hitting its margins? forcing it to get more aggressive on deals to lure eaters?


Friday, July 23


American Express (AXP) - spending - where, how much, US vs. Europe?
Kimberly Clark (KMB) - last year was strong for paper products, but now what about the impact of lumber prices and the pricing envirnment vs. last year’s paper product shortage?
Sensient (SXT) - watching to hear what this flavoring and color company has to say about non meat protein demand in the quarter and expectations as BYND re-launched its plant based chicken with Panda Express…. 


Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins