Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes ECFR

When Europe’s single market was first conceived in the 1980s, the number of member states was half of what it is today, the Soviet Union still existed, Germany was not yet reunified, and the Chinese and Indian economies comprised less than 5 per cent of the global economy. Now, the European Union’s economic, political, and demographic landscape is almost unrecognisable. While the single market continues to be a cornerstone of European integration, it urgently needs strengthening to adapt to this changing global order.
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes former Italian prime minister and ECFR council member Enrico Letta to discuss his report examining the European single market’s future. Why is the single market so important? How can it be improved to meet today’s geopolitical challenges? And what are the dangers if the EU doesn’t adapt?
This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.
Bookshelf
Salviamo l’Europa: Otto parole per riscrivere il futuro by Michele Bellini
L’Europe enfla si bien qu’elle creva: De 27 à 36 États? by Sylvie Goulard


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With the European Parliament election only one month away, there is feverish speculation about who will get the top jobs of Commission President, President of the Council, and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. With predictions of a far-right surge and the influence of domestic politics, this electoral cycle will be crucial in shaping the very future of European politics. 
Live from the ECFR staff retreat in Bologna, Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Puglierin, Célia Belin, José Ignacio Torreblanca, Arturo Varvelli, Maria Simeonova, and Piotr Buras, the heads of our Berlin, Paris, Madrid, Rome, Sofia, and Warsaw offices, respectively, to discuss the election. In addition to giving their best guesses as to who will get what jobs, they will take a closer look at how domestic politics is likely to influence the elections and shape the Europe that emerges from them. 
The podcast was recorded on 28 April 2024
Bookshelf 
Battle redux: Macron, Le Pen, and France’s European election campaign by Célia Belin 
The long shadow of the populists: Donald Tusk’s first 100 days by Piotr Buras 
Turning point or turning back: German defence policy after Zeitenwende by Jana Puglierin 
Hanging in the balance: How to save Bulgaria’s foreign policy from political turmoil by Maria Simeonova 
La hora más crítica de la Unión Europea by José Ignacio Torreblanca 
The Atlantic is not enough: The Italian government’s difficult relations in Europe by Arturo Varvelli  
The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe by Mark Leonard  

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Taiwan has come to represent a strategic flashpoint in US-China relations. As Beijing ramps up its political and military pressure on Taipei, any escalation could trigger a major conflict between the two powers. Unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China may have to reckon with direct US intervention if it chose to invade Taiwan. Alongside this, the US-China strategic competition is rising, with the United States’ strategic approach involving aggressive export controls, maintaining tariffs, and creation of alliances in the Indo-Pacific.
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of national security think-tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, to discuss US-China competition and the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. What would the consequences of an invasion be? What can the US do about it? And what role should Europeans play in all of this?
This episode was recorded on 25 April 2024
Bookshelf:
To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power by Sergey Radchenko

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As the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s Saturday attack, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza persists and the territory remains on the brink of famine. While Israel’s attention is momentarily diverted towards Iran and its proxies, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu insists he is still planning an offensive on Rafah, discussions around a ceasefire and hostage exchange remain in deadlock, and a possible two state-solution recedes further into the distance.  
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt and chief of programmes and communications at the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, Muhammad Shehada from Gaza, to discuss the war in Gaza and the prospects for Palestinian statehood. What pathways for a solution to the conflict remain? Should the emphasis continue to be on Palestinian statehood, or on self-determination in a broader sense? Can Europeans play a constructive role in finding a peaceful solution? 
This episode was recorded on 17 April 2024 
 Bookshelf: 
Crossing the Divide: Intergroup Leadership in a World of Difference by Todd Pittinsky 
The Bank Manager and the Holy Grail: Travels to the Weirder Reaches of Wales by Byron Rogers  

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On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have intercepted most of these and the airspace over Israel and Jordan has since been reopened.
In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, where he focuses on Iranian foreign policy and regional issues. But the attack remains historically unprecedented and leaves the Middle East sliding to the edge of a regional war. What motivated Iran to attack? How will Israel respond? And what role is the us playing?
The podcast was recorded on 14 April 2024

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Amid growing geopolitical fragmentation and the rise of middle powers, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia stand out for their successful attempts to reinvent themselves as regional linchpins. Despite having to operate within an increasingly difficult economic environment, the Gulf states have simultaneously expanded their ties with China, Europa, Russia, and the United States and reaped remarkable economic rewards in the process. 
In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Agathe Demarais, visiting fellow Cinzia Bianco, and policy fellow and Deputy Head of ECFR’s Paris office, Camille Lons, to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf. How have the UAE and Saudi Arabia managed to juggle different competing powers? What lessons do their strategies hold for other middle powers? And what should the European Union be doing to pursue its own interests in the region? 
This episode was recorded on 11 April 2024 
Bookshelf: 
3 Body Problem – a Netflix TV Series by David Benioff, Daniel Weiss, and Alexander Woo 
Blind Man’s Bluff: The Untold Story of American Submarine Espionage by Sherry Sontag and Christopher Drew, with Annette Lawrence Drew 
The Power of Currencies and Currencies of Power by Alan Wheatley 
There’s Still Tomorrow – a film by Paolo Cortellesi 

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