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Since 2016, polling has become somewhat of a controversial topic in the world of politics. Some Democrats have their concerns because of the pure shock of Donald Trump's victory in 2016, while some Republicans distrust polls because they have recently shown President Trump down considerable margins in key states. Despite this, public opinion institutes and pollsters have continued to churn out what they believe to be reputable data points about many campaigns all over the country. One of these pollsters, Dr. Christopher Borick, joined the Millennial Politics Podcast this week to discuss his work, how polls have improved over the past few years, and to look toward next week's elections.

Dr. Borick is a Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. His polls, only one of six to receive an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight, are widely regarded as some of the best in the country. Some of the things that he thinks contribute to this prestige are their level of transparency and their sampling and interview methods. Another aspect that Muhlenberg has recently included is weighting by educational attainment, which Dr. Borick says the absence of may have led to some of the polling errors we saw in 2016 in states like Wisconsin.

In talking about the current state of the 2020 race, the professor said that as the polls currently stand, an error large enough to lead to a President Trump victory is a low-probability event but is certainly not impossible. However, he also cautioned that a polling error wouldn't necessarily be biased towards the Democrats as it was in 2016 and that in 2012, polls actually underestimated President Obama's performance.

Dr. Borick went into detail about modeling and gave us some insight into what he thinks the probabilities of certain outcomes are for next week. In that conversation, he shared how factors like voter suppression, voter turnout, and mail-in voting affect the modeling and polling industry and what challenges those fields face in an unprecedented election cycle like 2020.

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Across the country, there has been a wave of progressive victories in Democratic primaries over the past few years. In 2018, we saw Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, and a number of New York State Senate seats flip from the hands of incumbent Democrats to young, bold progressive voices fighting for a new status quo. This trend has continued in 2020 with Cori Bush, Marie Newman, and many others, including a man from the Bronx, NY. 

On June 23, Jamaal Bowman unseated a powerful sitting representative: Eliot Engel has been in Congress for 31 years and is the current Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Bowman won the primary by a resounding margin, beating Rep. Engel by nearly 15 percentage points and over 13,000 votes. It was a huge shock for many in the political world: how could an influential incumbent once again vastly underestimate their primary challenger? Bowman's campaign, however, knew that anything was possible with enough hard work and community engagement.

A former middle school principal and founder of the Cornerstone Academy for Social Action in the Bronx, Bowman's background is in education. He says that his motivation for running for Congress came mainly from seeing firsthand how poorly those children were treated and how little resources they had available to them in order to live successful lives.

There's a direct connection between those horrible outcomes [youth deaths and suicides] and the trauma our kids and families deal with and poverty and bad policy that often comes from Washington.

Bowman also speaks about NY's 16th Congressional District, which is the area he will be representing come January 2021. He talks about the vast wealth inequality that exists both in America as a whole but also specifically in his district: the 16th consists of very poor areas in the Bronx but also extremely affluent Westchester suburbs. When it comes to squaring his support of Joe Biden's presidential campaign and his own progressive values and beliefs, Bowman believes it isn't an either-or situation.

He fights for things like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal because his constituents voted for him. After Trump has been defeated, Bowman says, then the left can begin working with Biden to further progressive policy. For now, he and his team are focused on helping with the Census count in the Bronx and ousting the GOP incumbent in November.

As just a junior in college, he has already chaired a political organizing group and launched his own PAC. He also wants to help elect progressives across the country, specifically through mobilizing youth voters through a Jewish lens. Ethan Wolf is passionate about Democratic politics and his Jewish identity and uses both of those to drive and influence his work. A former chair of the organizing body Jews 4 Joe, Ethan now leads the Jewish Unity PAC, which aims to turn out young voters in key swing states with digital ads, mailers, and more.

He joins Nathan and Sam on the Millennial Politics Podcast this week to discuss his work and also touched on the recent rise of anti-Semitism in American politics. Although he acknowledges the presence of anti-Semitism among some on the left, Ethan thinks the most important thing to do right now is to unite against Donald Trump and the Republican Party. After that task is complete, he says, we can focus on working with, building with, and educating members of the Democratic party about what anti-Semitism looks like, and what allyship for American Jews can mean.

We can be critical of the State of Israel just as we would be of any other nation... but the important thing is that we don't delegitimize, we don't demonize, and we don't deny Israel's right to exist.

Ethan also discusses why he thinks so many Jewish voters are drawn to the Democratic Party and its values, talking about how Democrats are the ones most interested in leaving a better world for the next generation with their advocacy on issues like climate change and gun control. He also said that because the Jewish community has seen so much discrimination in its history, most Jews share the pain of those marginalized and gravitate towards groups that want to make a change for the better.

While not often understood by most Americans, prosecutors at the local, state, and federal level have immense power in our judicial system. Effectively, they can choose to pursue the maximum sentence against an alleged criminal (within the legal guidelines), or, they can choose to be lenient and opt for the minimum. The decisions made at the prosecutorial level can change someone's life forever.

In practice, it's quite literally the difference between an addict being sent to rehab, or being convicted of a felony, sent to prison, and sentences to an endless cycle of recidivism through the prison system; the difference between a second chance, or a life sentence.

There is tremendous leeway in how criminal cases can proceed, and ultimately, it's up to the prosector to decide. 

Jami Hodge, Director of Vera Institute for Justice's Reshaping Prosecution program, joined the Millennial Politics Podcast to dig deeper into their work of ending mass incarceration through progressive prosecution methods. Hodge, with a JD from Duke University and having served as a former Assistant US Attorney, Senior Advisor in Obama's Department of Justice, and Advisor on Criminal Justice and Legal Policy for Vice President Biden, brings with her a wealth of knowledge and experience.

As the Director of the Prosecution Reform Program, Jami and her team work with elected prosecutors to end mass incarceration, address racial disparities, and to make their offices more accountable to the communities they serve. 

Listen to our conversation, and please feel free to continue the conversation with us on Twitter @MillenPolitics.

From entering the White House as a speechwriter at age 24 to writing most of President Obama's White House Correspondents Dinner jokes for four years, David Litt got into politics at a young age and quickly rose to the top of his profession. He joined the Millennial Politics Podcast this week to discuss his career in the White House, the current troubles facing our nation, and his new book, Democracy in One Book Or Less: How It Works, Why It Doesn't, and Why Fixing It Is Easier Than You Think.

Litt talks about his first book, a memoir recapping his time in the White House, and how his experience is different from others who have written similar books because of how young he was at the time. In discussing his newer research and writing, he diagnoses some major problems facing American democracy and how they are often extremely intertwined. With those connected issues, Litt says, also come connected solutions. He weaves in a fun story about the connection between Mitch McConnell and a fraternity house in Northern Kentucky.

Litt also speaks about how Democrats should govern if they do win back the Senate and the Presidency, including whether they should look to abolish the filibuster and how they use their legislative power.

I think that Democrats ought to be more comfortable using the tools available to them... in order to not just win elections but in order to make the playing field fairer.

Lastly, the Litt discusses some of the speeches he wrote for President Obama and the type of work he did while working in the administration. He also gives us a look into what it was like working in the White House, including an embarrassing story regarding an experience he had on Air Force One.

If you liked this episode, be sure to like and subscribe to our podcast, rate us five-stars, and leave a review. It's one of the best ways for new listeners to find us. Stay tuned for our next episode.

If you'd like to continue the conversation, David Litt can be found on Twitter @DavidLitt, Nathan can be found @NathanHRubin, and Sam can be found at @JeskeSam.

Swing Left was founded in January 2017 as a reaction to Donald Trump's ascension to the presidency. Since then, the progressive political group has grown exponentially. With chapters across the nation and representatives on college campuses, along with a massive organizing infrastructure, they're poised to make an enormous difference in elections taking place this November.

Steve Pierson and Mariah Craven joined the Millennial Politics Podcast to discuss the work they do on Swing Left's podcast, "How We Win," and the organization's new fundraising tool called "Blueprint." Branded as an investment portfolio for activism and giving, Blueprint empowers volunteers and donors to more effectively donate, track progress, and realize the difference that their contributions are making. Blueprint focuses on "Super States," which are states that Swing Left identifies as the key battleground states of the election.

Steve and Mariah also talked about their personal journeys of getting involved with politics and Swing Left, and how they came to co-host the "How We Win" podcast. The pod's purpose is to "provide inspiration and tools and calls to action" to their listeners so that they can get involved and make a difference. They have featured prominent guests, like Democratic pollster Cornel Belcher, founder of Mom's Demand Action Shannon Watts, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler, and MP's own Nathan Rubin.

If you'd like to continue the conversation, Nathan can be found on Twitter @NathanHRubin, Sam can be found @JeskeSam, Steve can be found @BluesBoySteve, and Mariah can be found @Mariah_Craven.