The Real Investment Show Podcast Lance Roberts

June is half-over, and the stock buy back blackout begins today, removing that source of activity from the market. Economic data points continue to weaken, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants to see "more good data." There is an alternative universe of debt; the Fed wants weaker economy so they can lower rates. The S&P 500 sets another new, all-time high; Apple, Miscrosoft, & Nvidia are driving the market. There is an ever-widening performance gap between the S&P 500 and everyone else. Mrs. Roberts' Roomba and an FOMC Meeting recap; the economy is "normalizing." Jerome Powell's humility; interest rates are restrictive; the problem with being data-dependent. Elon Musk's pay package; markets are still being driven by fewer and fewer stocks; buy backs' influence on market performance; was Apply buying back shares to bolster reaction from Apple Intelligence rollout? What happens when correction comes; what will trigger. Chocolate chip cookies & Cinnabons; the Bond market is picking up as consumer spending slows. there's plenty of room for downside in bonds; Gold's response to real rates. Speculation is driving gold. Private Credit opportunities and trends. Buy now pay later companies' credentials are very opaque; are you being rewarded for the risk you're taking on?  SEG-1: Lopsided Market Response to FOMC Meeting/Inflation SEG-2: FOMC - The Economy is Normalizing SEG-3: Markets' Driven by Fewer Stocks - What Happens When Correction Comes? SEG-4: CPI & Employment Data is Belying Deeper Problem Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EarrHemHx5U&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Golf and Investing: Mastering Long and Short Games For Success" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/golf-and-investing-mastering-long-and-short-games-for-success/ "It’s Not 2000. But There Are Similarities." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/its-not-2000-but-there-are-similarities/ "Are Economic Reports Pointing To A Recession?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Commodities And The Boom-Bust Cycle" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/commodities-and-the-boom-bust-cycle/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Deviation from 50-DMA is Extreme " is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrXTxLY9ihQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Managing Risk & Returns with Individual Treasury Bonds" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E6tkkfvRTQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1  -------- REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee (6/29/24): https://streamyard.com/watch/TX6irKYnjHnh ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #LaborMarket #Overstated #BLSdata #FederalReserve #Employment #ElectionCycle #JobStatistics #EconomicIndicators #DataDiscrepancies #UnemploymentRates #MarketDataAnalysis #LaborStatistics #JobMarket #EmploymentReports EconomicDataReliability #Markets #Money #Investing

The S&P set an all-time high following Wednesday's softer inflation report. Ironically, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia were the primary market drivers for the day. This continues to be a very lop-sided market; the deviation from the 50-DMA is getting pretty extreme again. Outside the S&P, the equal-weighted index is underperforming, and that gap is widening. 40% of the Russell 2000, for example, is non-profitable companies. There's a very big difference between what's happening in the S&P and the rest of the non-weighted world. Small- and Mid-cap companies are even more sensitive to economic data, and since 40% are not profitable, they're relying on debt; their survival is more dependent upon consumer strength and liquidity, which is waning. Despite yesterday's S&P performance, the Russell 2000 is still below its peak of 2022. There has been similar, disappointing performance in the S&P 600 of Small-cap companies. Also note: These companies do not do stock buybacks, so that "trick" for boosting shares does not exist for them. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrXTxLY9ihQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #SP600 #Russell2000 #ExtremeDeviation #StockBuyBacks #AppleIntelligence #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #MagnificentSeven #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #RateCuts #QuantitativeTightening #PortfolioRebalancing #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #CruideOil #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

It's Fed Day and Inflation Day: The FOMC meeting commences, and inflation in May cooled a bit. What will the Fed's Dot Plot show? Rate cut expectations are down to just two for this year, and likely not occuring until after the election. How will the Fed loosen QT? Markets set another all time high, marginally. The rally-restest-rally pattern continues. Apple was the big driver on Tuesday with the heralding of "Apple Intelligence." We answer viewers' questions about owning Bonds vs Treasuries vs ETF's. The saga of predictions, swimming in oil, and uranium's leap ahead of its reality. Our investing strategy now: What we're buying and selling, and why; how we manage risk. SEG-1: Fed Day/Inflation Day; Apple Intelligence SEG-2: Outlook for Owning Bonds SEG-3: Swimming in Oil & The Saga of Predictions SEG-4: How We Manage Risk Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E6tkkfvRTQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1  ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "It’s Not 2000. But There Are Similarities." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/its-not-2000-but-there-are-similarities/ "Are Economic Reports Pointing To A Recession?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Commodities And The Boom-Bust Cycle" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/commodities-and-the-boom-bust-cycle/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is Now the Time to Buy Apple?" is here:  https://youtu.be/3HXblWzZ5S4 ------- Our previous show is here: "How the 60/40 Investment Strategy Works for You" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xv5IwzcX8Xc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2187s -------- REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee (6/29/24): https://streamyard.com/watch/TX6irKYnjHnh ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #AppleIntelligence #FOMC #FederalReserve #Inflation #RiskManagement #Portfolio #TreasuryBonds #YieldMaximization #HurdleRates #InvestmentStrategy #RiskHedge #FinancialPlanning #AssetAllocation #BondInvestment #IndividualBonds #PortfolioManagement #ReturnCalculation #FinancialAdvice #BondMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

Markets set another all-time high Tuesday, albeit marginal, despite the trumpeting headlines, and trading negatively for most of the morning. We're now seeing institutions coming in to buy during late afternoon trading, lending bullish credence to the market. Traders are tracking right along the 20-DMA, as we saw in January and February, rebuilding the same pattern of rally-retest-rally. The big driver was Apple, with the advent of their "Apple Intelligence." A brilliant marketing move (pssst - it's still AI.) After nearly a year of not pulling its weight in the Magnificent Severn, Apple is now back in the game with a big breakout that drove markets higher yesterday.  Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-XpND3aEVE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #AppleIntelligence #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #MagnificentSeven #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #RateCuts #QuantitativeTightening #PortfolioRebalancing #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #CruideOil #EnergyStocks #OPEC #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets are essentially in stasis until after tomorrow's conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Market enthusiasm is similar to that seen in 2000, but there are a few differences this time around. Will Apple AI tailor a better product for users; can AI actually deliver? Crude Oil in a MACD buy signal from very low levels: Time to buy? How Generation-Z is making blue collar jobs cool; implications of power demands for AI and requirements for building out power grid to meet AI demand. Is it time to re-think the 60/40 portfolio? The finite value of bonds vs equity market risk. You can always adjust ratios to match your appetite. The basic economics of interest ates & monetary velocity. Looking at Media-driven narratives vs real data: dealing withi emotions in investing. Gold vs lead: Know your narrative. Importance of knowing how to make money with your money; copper commodity cycles; oil prices. SEG-1: Markets Meander; Time to Buy Oil? SEG-2: Gen-Z Making Blue Collar Jobs Cool Again SEG-3: Is It Time to Re-think the 60/40 Portfolio? SEG-4: Media-driven Narratives vs Real Data in Investing Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xv5IwzcX8Xc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2187s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "It’s Not 2000. But There Are Similarities." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/its-not-2000-but-there-are-similarities/ "Are Economic Reports Pointing To A Recession?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Commodities And The Boom-Bust Cycle" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/commodities-and-the-boom-bust-cycle/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is Now the Time to Buy Crude Oil?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-XpND3aEVE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Rising Unemployment Rate: A Possible Recession Indicator?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eUrYPVoG3M&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee (6/29/24): https://streamyard.com/watch/TX6irKYnjHnh ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #60_40_Allocation #Interest rates #EconomySlowing #BondPrices #Economics #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #AssetAllocation #StockBondMix #InvestmentPortfolio #MarketConditions #Recession #EconomicDownturn #InterestRateImpact #BondMarket #InvestmentAdvice #FinancialInsights #PortfolioManagement #Commodities #BoomBustCycle #Copper #Silver #HuntBrothers #Markets #Money #Investing

Markets are essentially on hold for the next 48-hours until we get through the FOMC meeting starting today; results will be announced tomorrow. Markets are overly sensitive to rate moves and want to know when and how much the Fed will cut. Markets could move up or down, sharply, based on the Fed's announcement tomorrow. Meanwhile, speculative bets on Crude Oil have gotten extremely negative. A lot of traders are long on Crude Oil, which has been very quietly moving up, and has now triggered a MACD buy signal from a very low level. This should give oil stocks a bit of a lift. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-XpND3aEVE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #RateCuts #QuantitativeTightening #PortfolioRebalancing #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #CruideOil #EnergyStocks #OPEC #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing