Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work Bubble Trouble

This week we are talking bubbles - or not! - with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog. We’ve done our level best to reflect on why bubbles happen, but what about calling them out  before they burst. “It would have been nice to have known” we were in a bubble before it caused trouble. That wish fits like an OJ Simpson glove into a recent column by Benedict exploring how and when to call them. With AI mania and NVIDIA up 130% this year and 700% in 18 months, lifting many other boats with it, this will be a timely conversation. 
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the phenomenon of market bubbles with tech analyst Benedict Evans. They discuss the intricacies of identifying bubbles before they burst, explore the role and future implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and touch upon how companies disclose crucial data. Benedict shares his career journey and insights on tech market dynamics, providing a detailed perspective on AI's potential impacts and strategic questions surrounding tech advancements. This episode offers a mix of reflective analysis and forward-looking forecasts in the tech landscape.
00:00 Introduction
01:06 Meet Benedict Evans
01:22 Benedict's Career Journey
02:59 The Art of Simplifying Complex Points
07:48 The Role of Public Companies in Market Bubbles
13:01 Tech Industry Cycles and Bubbles
19:56 Part Two
20:13 Generative AI: The Next Big Thing?
36:44 The Future of AI and Its Impact
39:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
40:20 Credits


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This week we’re going to split lanes as we’ve got breaking news coming out of Canada that Will’s been knee deep in: soon after their Government tried to regulate Google and Meta news, they’re now after Spotify and Netflix. Think contagion and buckle up - this may well be the sign of the regulatory times. Once we’re done with Canadians, we turn our attention to Cuppertino as we’ve just seen the WWDC wrap up the calendar of set piece marketing - Google, Meta, Microsoft and more - all now done and dusted. It's all become a slick operation, but what’s and not said can help us decipher the narratives of the most watched companies on the planet and these events have now gone mainstream.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page delve into the recent regulatory developments in Canada targeting streaming giants like Spotify and Netflix following earlier regulation attempts on Google and Meta. They explore the implications of Canada's new gross revenue contribution policy on streaming services and its potential impact on consumers and competitors. Additionally, the duo examines the wrap-up of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) and discusses the trends, leaks, and undertones of major tech company events, including the strategic presentations, the nuances of unsaid elements, and the ever-tightening grip of technological giants on the market. The episode aims to provide insights into the evolving landscape of tech regulation and market domination.
00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:08 Canadian Regulatory News
01:12 Impact on Streaming Services
01:30 Historical Context of Canadian Regulations
02:24 Current Regulatory Actions and Reactions
07:51 Tech Giants' Marketing Events
08:39 The Magnificent Seven and Market Concentration
10:17 The Role of Marketing in Tech
11:17 The Evolution of Tech Events
18:21 The Importance of Perception in Tech Announcements
21:03 Reading Between the Lines
32:14 Conclusion and Final Thoughts


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This week we turn to regulatory bubbles and the new buzz word: Gatekeepers! What are they, and what are they not and what gates do they actually keep? In forty five days, the European Commission drummed up an answer, while the US DoJ starts a court case about Google paying for search bar placements like Heinz beans play for shelf space in the grocery store. We’ve got 45 minutes with one of the best brains on the topic, Konstantina Bania, a Partner at the top firm Geradin Partners to understand all this. [Repeat from September, 2023.]
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This summer, a lot of us (and our children) will be packing our tents and heading to music festivals and concerts - there is trouble brewing. At one end, good luck buying a ticket and watching those fees add up. At the other end, the DoJ threw down the gauntlet and argued that Live Nation Ticketmaster needs to be broken up. This is big for music, and it’s also big for anti-trust - they’ve actually picked a fight and we’re ringing the bell for round one. Gloves off, where might there be punches below the belt. What can markets learn when the DoJ enters the ring?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: The Live Nation Antitrust Case
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Independent Analyst Richard Kramer and Economist Will Page delve into the intricacies of the Live Nation antitrust case brought by the DOJ. They explore the history of antitrust regulations, Live Nation's market dominance, and the implications for the live music industry. The discussion covers topics such as the control of ticketing, venues, and artists by Live Nation, the bundling of services, and the economic impact on smaller venues. The hosts debate the potential outcomes of the case and critique the inefficiencies in the current ticketing system, especially the Ticketmaster app. They also touch on broader issues in live music, including the decline of small venues and the impact of social isolation on festival attendance.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
01:16 Part One
01:46 Understanding Antitrust and Live Nation's Market Power
03:59 Live Nation's Business Model and Market Impact
16:00    Part Two  
17:15 The Ticketmaster Experience: A Consumer's Nightmare
27:06 Economic Realities of the Live Music Industry
34:44 Conclusion and Future Outlook
38:15 Credits


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When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.
00:00 Introduction
01:18 Part One
02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked
06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior
10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks
16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share
18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans
23:09 Part Two
24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact
25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges
26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers
27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding
28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization
34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets
40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions
42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading
46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
46:53 Credits


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This week, with the world of podcasting descending on London for the Podcast Show, we’re going to turn the tables on ourselves and get a little introspective, figuring out what is happening with this Podcast format. This time two years ago, we got a little ahead of our skis with Spotify, Amazon and the like spending eight (and nine) figure sums on podcast companies. That bubble burst and now we’re picking up the pieces to see what the future might resemble given its recent roller coaster past. To do that, two guests and two of the very best: James Cridland, author of the bible that is Podnews and Jonas Woost of Bumper. The former understands the industry, the latter understands the listener and by the end of this conversation you’ll find podcasts and podcasting a more rewarding listen. 
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The episode features a discussion on the evolving dynamics of podcasting, including the recent burst of the investment bubble in the sector, the impact of this shift, and what the future holds for podcast creators and companies. Guests include James Cridland, editor of Pod News, and Jonas Woost from Bumper, who share insights into the industry trends, listener engagement, and the complexities of podcast advertising. The conversation also explores the nuances of podcast data analysis, the importance of understanding 'actual listening' versus 'downloads', and strategies for podcast growth and monetization. The episode aims to provide a comprehensive look at both the business side of podcasting and the listener engagement aspect, intending to inform and guide podcast creators and industry stakeholders.
00:02 Introduction
01:02 Part One
01:10 Introducing the Experts: Insights from the Front Lines
02:43 The Podcasting Landscape: Numbers, Growth, and Challenges
06:53 Adapting to Change: Strategies for Success in Podcasting
15:48 Understanding Podcast Advertising: Data, Attribution, and Impact
22:34 The Evolution of Podcast Metrics: Attention Over Downloads
22:43 The Power of Feedback: From Music to Podcasts
23:37 Part Two
23:46 Navigating the Podcast Landscape: Insights and Strategies
24:25 Decoding Podcast Listenership: Beyond the Numbers
32:02 The Future of Podcast Advertising: Challenges and Opportunities
32:10 The Intimacy of Podcasting: Engaging Niche Audiences
41:48 The Podcast Show Preview: Expectations and Predictions



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