15 episodios

From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree. Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics and other strange things.

Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.

L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon". Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.

Los Angeles is the City of the Angels and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.

www.1929.live

Native Angelino with Tom Levine Tom Levine

    • Cultura y sociedad

From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree. Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics and other strange things.

Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.

L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon". Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.

Los Angeles is the City of the Angels and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.

www.1929.live

    America's Crisis - Prediabetes to Ozempic

    America's Crisis - Prediabetes to Ozempic

    Let's Talk Diabetes and Prevention
    38 million Americans have diabetes (about 1 in 10).
    Approximately 98 million American adults -- that's 1 in 3, have prediabetes.
    More than 80% don't know they have it. 
    The CDC reports that 18% of adolescents have prediabetes, and it's on the rise.
    Episode Notes
    00:15 - Who is Lara Al Dandachi?
    01:12 - Increase in Obesity and Diabetes
    03:40 - Type 1 vs Type 2
    05:30 - Body Mass Index (BMI)
    07:10 - GLP-1 Antagonists - Ozempic, Wegovy
    11:38 - Ozempic and Pregnancy
    14:35 - IMPORTANT - Diabetes and Prediabetes
    16:45 - What are Beta Cells?
    22:35 - Food and Drink to Eliminate From Your Diet
    24:15 - Ultra-Processed Foods
    26:45 - Mediterranean Diet
    28:05 - Putting Diabetes into Remission
    What Is Prediabetes?
    Prediabetes is a serious health condition. Blood sugar levels are higher than normal, but not yet high enough to be diagnosed as type 2 diabetes. 
    With prediabetes, action is the best medicine.
    American Diabetes Association
    What is Diabetes?
    About 38 million Americans have diabetes (about 1 in 10), and approximately 90-95% have type 2 diabetes. 
    Type 2 diabetes most often develops in people over age 45, but more and more children, teens, and young adults are also developing it.
    Preventing Type 2 Diabetes
    If you have prediabetes, losing a small amount of weight if you're overweight and getting regular physical activity can lower your risk for developing type 2 diabetes.
    A small amount of weight loss means around 5% to 7% of your body weight, just 10 to 14 pounds for a 200-pound person.
    Regular physical activity means getting at least 150 minutes a week of brisk walking or a similar activity. That's just 30 minutes a day, five days a week.
    Tests for Diabetes and Prediabetes
    Your doctor will have you take one or more of the following blood tests to confirm the diagnosis:
    A1C Test
    The A1C test measures your average blood sugar level over the past 3 months. An A1C below 5.7% is normal, between 5.7 and 6.4% indicates you have prediabetes, and greater than 6.5% indicates you have diabetes.
    Fasting Blood Sugar Test
    This measures your blood sugar after an overnight fast (not eating). A fasting blood sugar level of 99 mg/dL or lower is normal, 100 to 125 mg/dL indicates you have prediabetes, and greater than 126 mg/dL indicates you have diabetes.
    GLP-1 Antagonists - Ozempic, Wegovy, Byetta, Rybelsus
    This class of drugs is commonly called glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists.
    These drugs mimic the action of a hormone called glucagon-like peptide 1. When blood sugar levels start to rise after someone eats, these drugs stimulate the body to produce more insulin. The extra insulin helps lower blood sugar levels.
    Lower blood sugar levels are helpful for controlling type 2 diabetes. But it's not clear how the GLP-1 drugs lead to weight loss. Doctors do know that GLP-1s appear to help curb hunger. These drugs also slow the movement of food from the stomach into the small intestine.As a result, you may feel full faster and longer, so you eat less.
    Along with helping to control blood sugar and boost weight loss, GLP-1s and SGLT-2 inhibitors seem to have other major benefits. Research has found that some drugs in these groups may lower the risk of heart disease, such as heart failure, stroke and kidney disease. Source: The Mayo Clinic
    Guest Biography - Lara Al-Dandachi
    Lara Al-Dandachi is the Nutrition Director of the PRO (Program to Reduce Obesity) within the Division of Endocrinology at David Geffen School of Medicine and UCLA Health. 
    Lara is a Registered Dietitian Nutritionist (RDN), Certified Diabetes Educator, and Obesity specialist who cares for patients in UCLA Health's Gonda Diabetes Center.
    She is one of very few Registered Dietitians in the nation who are triple board certified in diabetes care specialty CDCES, advanced diabetes management BC-ADM, and obesity and weight management subspecialty (CSOWM).
    Medical Board Certifications
    American Association of Diabetes Educa

    • 33 min
    Reinvent Yourself - The Author Awakens

    Reinvent Yourself - The Author Awakens

    Annie Logue joins the Native Angelino Podcast with Tom Levine
    Listen now | Annie Logue From Wall Street to Author of Day Trading For Dummies | Stories of Henry Blodget’s fall, Liar's Poker, and tips for freelance writers.
    Stories and Advice for Aspiring Freelancers
    Ann Logue (rhymes with vogue) started her career as a Wall Street financial analyst covering the healthcare sector. She followed a traditional path - undergrad studied economics, earned an MBA in finance, and joined an investment bank. Then, an awakening and a career change.
    She is now a full-time freelance writer of six books and hundreds of articles.
    She regularly shares her witty thoughts on The Whatever Years (Substack).
    We have known each other for decades and reminisce on the ‘old days,’ including stories of WIRED Magazine, Henry Blodget’s fall from grace and reemergence at Business Insider, and the early days of the internet (Netcom, Netscape, Drugstore.com), and the dot-com bubble.
    Her list of ‘must have’ books for every aspiring Wall Street trainee is in the notes below. Hint: Michael Lewis’s Liar’s Poker is at the top.
    What is her favorite bookstore? Unabridged Bookstore in Chicago, IL.
    Table Of Contents
    00:25 From Wall Street to Author of 6 books
    7:30 Day Trading for Dummies
    11:30 Visions of Becoming a WIRED staff writer
    12:50 Her First Paid Clip - the New York Times
    16:15 Liar’s Poker and Other Books to Have on Your Shelf
    17:00 Salomon Brothers
    20:30 Disruption - Publishing Industry, Real Estate, Wall St
    26:30 Cost of Education
    40:40 Advice on Starting A Freelance Writing Career
    44:25 Writing Advice - Practical Tips
    53:04 Henry Blodget
    1:02:10 Annie’s Favorite Bookstore
    1:03 My Netcom (NETC) Story


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

    • 1h 6 min
    Lurking in Plain Sight

    Lurking in Plain Sight

    Joining the Native Angelino Podcast from Kyoto, Japan, Professor Linus Yamane speaks eloquently about the lessons the United States can learn from the Japanese economy.
    Heavy government debt levels restrain the ability of policymakers to correct problems even in light of obvious trends.
    An aging population, a declining population, increasing wealth disparity and education inequality pressure the social security system.
    What policy prescriptions are available to ensure the proper functioning and availability of the system for future generations?
    He correctly predicts (1:08 min) the interest rate hike by the Japan’s central bank. The first rise in 17 years and a major policy shift.
    The social security system is analyzed at the 17:35 mark.
    Update Bloomberg, Weekend Reading, March 23, 2024
    It was a big week for central banks, replete with surprises, told-you-so’s and new projections about where monetary policy is headed the world over. The Swiss National Bank, citing progress on inflation, became the first among global peers to cut interest rates…
    …the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate regime, the world’s last. The radical policymaking tool had been adopted to encourage bank lending, spur demand and stem disinflation.
    In the US, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5% as policymakers maintained their projections for three rate cuts this year if inflation continues its retreat. But after a couple of bumps on the path back to 2%, there’s a chance the Fed could drop one of those cuts.
    Bio: Professor Yamane is a Professor of Economics at Pitzer College in Claremont, California. He joined the Pitzer faculty in 1988, and is currently on sabbatical (2023-2024).
    His research interests include the Japanese Economy, Labor Economics, Econometrics and Macroeconomics. He attended Yale University (MA, MPhil, PhD)and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (BS).
    Additional Episodes
    The Proposed Sitzer-Burnett Settlement
    Is Compass just Redfin on Steroids?
    The Race Between Education and Technology
    About The Author And Podcast Host Tom Levine
    Tom Levine is an LA native and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics.
    Following a 25 year career in capital markets, he founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, valuation and real estate services. Serving individuals, family offices, institutions and professional investors.
    “We solve complex problems. Have a difficult strategic issue, or a real estate sale that requires fresh ideas? Please schedule a a consultation”.
    Native Angelino Real Estate, established 2017, for residential, commercial and investment related transactions. Tom Levine is real estate consultant, broker and certified Short Sale and Forclosure specialist under the National Association of Realtors. (CADRE #2052698)
    The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group.
    “From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
    Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
    L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon."
    Well, if you get a really early start, it's true.
    Sometimes.
    Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

    • 55 min
    Stock Market Highs, Real Estate Risk, Commercial Defaults

    Stock Market Highs, Real Estate Risk, Commercial Defaults

    Almost a year ago, New York Community Bank (NYSE: NYCB) acquired Signature Bank's assets as a fresh banking crisis had emerged almost overnight.
    The fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank wreaked havoc on financial markets and raised fears of a 2008 scenario.
    Over the past week, those fears have again come to life. NYCB issued a dismal earnings report, followed by a set of questionable disclosures. The stock tumbled, and commercial real estate values are again in question.
    With more write-offs and loan losses surely to come, why are many of the S&P Real Estate Sector fund components showing signs of life and stock price momentum? We pose this question to our guest, Katie Stockton, of Fairlead Funds.
    Fairlead recently added The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) to their portfolio based on proprietary research utilizing technical analysis.
    Mortgage rates, which were in the 2-3% range during Covid, have recently retreated from the eight percent level and are bouncing between 6.5 and 7%.
    The stock market has reached new highs, unemployment is low, and job creation is strong. What comes next?
    What would John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Funds, comment if he were alive today? Would he continue to advocate for long-term investing in low-cost index-related funds? Yes.
    What does our guest, Katie Stockton, a Chartered Market Technician, have to say about current market conditions? Let's find out.
    Technical analysis is a methodology using charts and trends for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Additionally, momentum and relative strength.1
    Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, liabilities and earnings); health; and competitors and markets.2
    Guest
    Katie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. Most recently, she served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners. She also worked for technical strategy teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview.
    CNBC Fast Money, January 24, 2024
    With help from the Fairlead Strategies team, Katie provides research and consulting services to institutions and individuals, and she is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK). Katie received her Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation in 2001, and later served as Vice President of the CMT Association from 2012 to 2016. For several years, she has been honored by The Technical Analyst, a U.K. based publication, including an award in 2022 for Best Cryptocurrency Research.
    Katie graduated with honors from the University of Richmond with a BSBA, and she now serves on the business school’s Executive Advisory Council. She is a member of the Endowment Investment Committee for her church. Katie frequently shares her views on CNBC and other financial news networks.
    Jack Bogle
    CNBC, Cramer, Obit, Jack Bogle was despised and he loved it
    Jack Bogle Shares the Investment Lessons of a Lifetime
    John Bogle wikipedia
    John Bogle remarks to CFA Institute, May 23, 2017
    John Bogle advice
    About The Author And Podcast Host Tom Levine
    Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics.
    Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, valuation and real estate services. Serving individuals, family offices, institutions and professional investors.
    Native Angelino Real Estate, established 2017, for residential, commercial and inve

    • 1h 2 min
    The Stock Market Through Pictures - Technical Analysis

    The Stock Market Through Pictures - Technical Analysis

    In this episode, we review the state of the U.S stock market from the perspective of charts and trends —— technical analysis.
    Our guest, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies, is one of the most talented and respected technical analysts working in financial markets.
    She will mention the term “Fibonacci retracement,” which is a tool derived from an Italian mathematician’s work in 1202 and first discovered by Indian scholars in 200 BC.
    The pattern can be found many places in nature, such as in the spiral of a pine cone, the arrangement of seeds in a sunflower, the branching of a tree, the shape of a seashell, and even in a DNA molecule.
    With Katie as portfolio manager, Fairlead has recently launched a “Tactical Sector ETF” under the symbol TACK. Fairlead Strategies employs a systematic approach to technical analysis focused on the identification of important trends and support & resistance levels. Mathematically based tools facilitate tactical market timing and positioning.
    Technical analysis is a methodology using charts and trends for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Additionally, momentum and relative strength.
    Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, liabilities and earnings); health; and competitors and markets.
    Katie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. Most recently, she served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners. She also worked for technical strategy teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview.
     With help from the Fairlead Strategies team, Katie provides research and consulting services to institutions and individuals, and she is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK). Katie received her Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation in 2001, and later served as Vice President of the CMT Association from 2012 to 2016. For several years, she has been honored by The Technical Analyst, a U.K. based publication, including an award in 2022 for Best Cryptocurrency Research.
    Katie graduated with honors from the University of Richmond with a BSBA, and she now serves on the business school’s Executive Advisory Council. She is a member of the Endowment Investment Committee for her church. Katie frequently shares her views on CNBC and other financial news networks.
    About The Author And Podcast Host
    Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014.
    The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services. 
    Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors. 
    Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor.
    Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he is a certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
    Podcast
    The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, a consulting and strategy firm, parent to 1929, Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets.
    Native Angelino description found on iTunes:
    “From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical

    • 42 min
    Cathy Wood - To Catch A Falling Knife

    Cathy Wood - To Catch A Falling Knife

    Cathy Wood is a warrior. Perhaps with the wrong battle plan.
    She is a general - intelligent, seasoned, and committed to the cause. 
    Yet, a war of attrition only works if the army (in this case, her investors) have the staying power for prolonged battles with an unknown endpoint.
    She catches falling knifes, averages down, and counts on her investors having unlimited patience and staying power.
    To catch a falling knife is a phrase used to describe buying a stock that is falling dramatically in hopes of picking the bottom. 
    It is a risky investment strategy, often akin to gambling. The danger in trying to catch a falling knife is that the stock will continue to drop. 
    The phrase is a metaphor - literally, you may get cut and bloodied trying to catch a falling knife. 
    If one buys a share of stock at $100 and it falls by 50% to $50, it must go up by 100% to reach the breakeven point. Think through that.
    The Ark Invest Management flagship fund, Ark Innovation ETF (symbol: ARKK), is down 51% year to date (YTD) at $47.13 per share. 
    For comparison purposes, the NASDAQ Composite Index is down 22% YTD.
    Over the trailing 5 year period the NASDAQ is up 100% and ARKK is up 82%.
    For her strategy to be successful she must be able to hang on through the lows, purchase additional shares on the way down, and have greater inflows of funds than outflows over the time horizon.
    Averaging down is an investment strategy, which in the extreme is known as “catching a falling knife”, that involves a stock owner purchasing additional shares of a previously initiated investment after the price has dropped. 
    Assuming the stock turns around, this ensures a lower breakeven point for the stock position and higher gains in dollar terms (compared to the gains if the position was not averaged down).1
    To reiterate the key elements to a successful strategy of averaging down:
    * The investor has the funds for additional purchases.
    * The stock eventually turns around and moves higher.
    * The investment horizon is long enough to wait for the turnaround.
    Currently, roughly 50% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 50% from their highs. Many stocks in the NASDAQ and smaller capitalization indices are down far more.
    It is not uncommon for a bottom to occur when 70% of all stocks are down 50% or more. We are not there yet.
    From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has retested the +/- 4160 level numerous times. Currently, 4132 and facing the headwinds of inflation, rising interest rates, and war in Europe.
    Have we seen the bottom, such that the Ark Invest (Cathy Wood) strategy will prove successful? Bear market rallies will occur, but I suspect we have not yet seen the bottom.
    It’s possible to win the war, but be prepared for battle weariness and uncertainty.
    Cathie Wood buys stocks like someone who just started yesterday, says Jim Cramer
    Cramers comments were aired on February 17, 2022 and are worth watching again. He is not shy of hyperbole nor controversy. Yet, this time he outlines clearly a professional money managers required skillset and where Cathy Wood falls short.
    Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett describe the current market mania
    “People who know nothing about stocks being advised by stockbrokers who know even less”, April 30, 2022.
    Mohamed El-Erian updates thoughts on the interest rate environment - April 29, 2022
    Today, yields on Treasury Bonds at the 5, 10 and 30 year maturity breached 3%. It is as much a psychological barrier as a practical one given that 30 year mortgage rates are above 5% already.
    The probability of recession is increasing. The only real questions left are when will the economy slow significantly, how bad will it be, and for how long will it last.
    The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this week and is widely expected to increase interest rates by 1/2% (50 basis points). My instinct puts the probability of a 50bps rise at 60%, 25bps at 20% or 75bps at 20%.
    About The Author And Podcast Host
    Following a 25 year caree

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