Palisades Gold Radio Collin Kettell

Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for Verfied Investing. The conversation centers on the significant influence of the top six companies in the S&P and NASDAQ, which make up approximately 33% of these indexes, raising apprehensions for passive or specific investors. Soloway underscores potential risks associated with this overallocation, such as flash crashes or market declines, emphasizing the role of algorithms in exacerbating risk due to their massive investments and swift responses to market shifts.







Soloway also shares his concerns about various economic indicators signaling a weaker economy than suggested by broad indices. He mentions the transportation sector, Airbnb rentals, and commodities like copper and oil as examples of potential weaknesses that could impact consumer spending and tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple. Copper and oil, often viewed as economic health indicators, have shown signs of potential downturns.







Soloway anticipates a return of inflation to 2% once the economy slows down, but warns of a quick rebound when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates aggressively during an economic downturn. He fears this could lead to difficulties for the Fed in rescuing the economy as they have done in the past.







Central banks' responses to inflation are also discussed, with Soloway suggesting they can impact inflation through interest rates and quantitative tightening measures. The Federal Reserve is challenged to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.







Gareth discusses potential consequences of high inflation, such as affecting consumer confidence and leading investors to shift from stocks to bonds. He also touches on rate effects on wealthy individuals and the growing US debt, which could impact future interest rate cuts and the possibility of a financial reset. Gareth believes that significant economic collapse could occur within the next five to ten years, possibly resulting in Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) implementation as a solution or band-aid fix for an already fragile economic situation. The conversation also covers challenges the Federal Reserve faces during elections and potential impacts of other central banks' rate cuts on the US economy. Lastly, Gareth raises concerns about financial institution risks due to asset-liability mismatches and potential massive losses, especially in commercial real estate.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Equity Concentration1:28 - Flash Crash Risks?2:27 - Trading Algos & Exits3:36 - Economy & Weakness4:14 - Transport ETF Chart5:09 - Russell 2000 Index5:45 - AirBnB Chart7:32 - Copper Chart9:18 - Crude Oil Chart10:23 - Inflation Thoughts12:28 - Rates, Demand, & Credit14:58 - The Debt End Game17:52 - The CBDC "Fix"?19:50 - Fed & 2024 Election Cycle21:44 - Foreign C.B. Rate Cuts22:28 - Market Risks & Banks26:33 - Gold/Silver Outlook30:18 - Palladium Chart32:33 - Wrap Up







Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSolowayWebsite: https://inthemoneystocks.com/Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.comWebsite: https://verifiedinvestingeducation.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/







Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading.

Tom welcomes back Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and commodities trader to discuss the policy dilemmas facing central bankers worldwide and the implications for gold. Central banking challenges, including the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer policy and potential risks for reserve asset holders, particularly those of BRICS countries, are explored.







Michael argues against the adoption of alternative reserve assets like gold or Bitcoin due to their supply inelasticity and potential for sharp price fluctuations. The conversation touches upon geopolitical implications of central banks' search for alternatives to the US dollar, the challenges posed by illiquid reserve assets, and the inflationary environment. Michael believes we might be experiencing a new inflation trajectory between low inflation and stagflation, with unemployment currently in the middle.







Michael also discusses the dynamics of treasuries versus gold in relation to currency devaluation and central bank interventions. The effectiveness of interventions like those by the Bank of Japan is questioned, suggesting potential selling of reserve assets, including gold, to fund these interventions.







He introduces the concept of the 'Goldilocks trade' and its opposite, the 'anti-Goldilocks trade.' The Goldilocks trade refers to an economy not too hot or cold, allowing the Fed to cut interest rates without causing inflation. In contrast, the anti-Goldilocks trade is characterized by stagflationary conditions. Michael expresses concern about the widening wealth divide and pockets of weakness in certain sectors while larger institutions remain unscathed.







Lastly Mr. Kao shares his investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of information asymmetry and understanding underlying capital structures to find true alpha opportunities. He warns against commodity beta pitfalls and encourages listeners to explore different perspectives on investment topics.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:56 - The Battle of the Bads7:43 - Reserve Assets & Risks16:24 - US Gold Reserves & Backing20:10 - Fiscal Dominance & Debt24:52 - Fed Response & Guidance26:13 - Four Horseman of Inflation36:06 - Fed Cuts & Yields42:08 - Weak Currencies45:28 - The Goldilocks Trade50:27 - Alpha Vs Beta Returns1:00:30 - Identifying Alpha Plays1:05:47 - Wrap Up







Talking Points From This Episode









* Central bankers face challenges with inflation, reserve assets, and geopolitical implications.







* Goldilocks and anti-Goldilocks trades represent contrasting economic conditions neither too hot or cold.







* Why having information asymmetry is crucial for finding true alpha in investments.









Guest Links:Website/Substack: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/aboutTwitter: https://twitter.com/@UrbanKaoboy







Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.







Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.

Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, author and publisher of TheIndependentSpeculator.com. They explore China's recent halt in gold buying by the People's Bank, which is deemed insignificant as ordinary Chinese people are increasingly seeking gold as a secure investment due to real estate crisis and the desire for alternative savings. The conversation revolves around potential economic indicators such as Jeff Gunlach's recession predictor and Rick Rule's perspective on an inevitable but not immediate recession. Lobo expresses worries about market fragility, investor panic, especially during elections, and possible implications of copper prices.







Despite considering copper an economic indicator with a trailing effect, Lobo remains bullish on it for the long term, though it might change his investment approach if there's a recession. Lobo observes that silver has behaved more like gold recently, prompting him to reconsider investment strategies and add silver back into consideration. Regarding Mexico, political instability and anti-mining sentiments are increasingly a concern, leading Lobo to reduce his Mexican stock exposure. The discussion also touches upon Argentina's President Milei, with potential risks of instability or violent events impacting investments, but optimism remains due to Milei's popularity and reform progress.







Lobo argues that political risk cannot be overlooked in Latin America and advocates for the potential profitability of gold stocks due to their ability to provide significant leverage to the underlying commodity. Additionally, he remains bullish on uranium as a potentially lucrative investment opportunity that has a long-term thesis.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - A New Gold Buyer?8:38 - Macro Forces & Timing11:16 - Recession & Unemployment19:24 - Stock Market Optimism21:00 - Economy & Dr. Copper26:50 - Silver Outlook30:16 - Mexico & Capital Concerns34:50 - Latin America Trends43:43 - Mining Stocks Broken?49:51 - Uranium & Wrap Up







Talking Points From This Episode









* Chinese people seek gold as alternative savings amid real estate crisis, disregarding People's Bank pause in buying.







* Lobo remains bullish on copper for the long term but may change approach if recession occurs. Silver behavior prompts strategy reconsideration.







* Political instability in Mexico and Argentina raise concerns.







* Gold stocks offer potential profit due to commodity leverage. He remains bullish on uranium long-term.









Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/







Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.







Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.







A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Greg Weldon, the publisher of Global Macro Strategy Report and the Gold Guru, for a discussion on the US markets, with a focus on the economy and consumer spending. With over four decades of experience in financial markets and commodity trading, Greg expresses concerns about economic stress despite celebratory employment reports, citing labor market conditions worsening with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates. Consumers are also facing increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies while disposable income decreases and government handouts account for an expanding share.







Greg suggests the economy might already be rolling over, and the Fed would like to see asset prices decrease before declaring victory in inflation, despite the policy rate being higher than current inflation. Commercial real estate is another major concern, with the Fed seeming behind the curve.







Greg shares his perspective that the Fed might be showing a willingness to accept higher general rates of inflation to protect consumers and the economy despite risks of inducing a credit crunch. The discussion touches upon Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's challenges in maintaining an apolitical stance during the divisive US election year and potential social unrest leading to economic negatives. Greg also mentions commercial real estate debt due in the next 12 months, which could lead to bank failures for regional banks holding 80% of that debt.







Greg discusses the implications of a consumer wake-up call in the stock market or another Plaza Accord-like agreement among major global powers as potential catalysts for the U.S. dollar's next round of debasement. He also mentions natural events, climate change, and geopolitical conflicts that could impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold. Greg encourages being aggressive defensively by shorting the S&P 500 when the time comes and suggests optimism about future performance for platinum and certain mining shares. He believes mining as a whole will benefit from increased enthusiasm towards gold.







Lastly, Mr. Weldon emphasizes the importance of staying adaptive, not being bound by historical prices or market assumptions, researching a good Commodity Trading Advisor, importance of proper risk management, and understanding futures trading.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Heavy Policies & Elections4:50 - CPI Understated?6:29 - Consumer Credit Stress8:57 - Powell & Asset Prices10:08 - Fed Watching Gold?12:54 - Fed Inflation Targets15:20 - Inflation Metrics?19:26 - Powell & Elections21:38 - Bank Failure Risks25:47 - Dollar Risk & C.B Cuts32:13 - Defensive Plays34:15 - Dollar/Gold Correlation37:27 - Stock Markets & Currencies39:48 - Gold Market Considerations45:23 - Platinum Thoughts47:12 - Mining Sector Vs. Metals50:00 - Concluding Thoughts51:20 - Wrap Up







Talking Points From This Episode









* Why the economy may already be rolling over, with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates, despite positive employment reports.







* The Fed might accept higher inflation to protect consumers and the economy, potentially causing a credit crunch.







* Natural events, climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and consumer behavior could significantly impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold.









Guest Links:Website: http://www.weldononline.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/WeldonLIVEMoney Podcast: https://twitter.com/money_podcastYouTube: a href="https://www.youtube.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Tony Anscombe, ESET Chief Security Evangelist, to discuss cybersecurity in the mining sector. With over three decades in IT and cybersecurity, Anscombe stresses that security fundamentals remain crucial despite technological advancements. He highlights vulnerabilities from remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states. Mining companies face significant risks, including potential for fatalities and financial losses.







A comprehensive cybersecurity framework is necessary, along with advanced technologies like EDR systems. The financial cost of cyber attacks can reach $14 trillion by 2027, affecting industries, including mining. Companies must prioritize cybersecurity and involve third parties to adhere to security policies. Anscombe also touches on the ethical implications and potential international collaboration in AI development.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Tony's Background2:03 - Industrial Security6:47 - Potential Risks10:37 - Attack Vectors12:32 - 3rd Party Liability14:30 - AI & Cyber Security17:30 - Practical Solutions19:50 - Capable People20:58 - Global Impacts & Costs24:16 - Reporting & Regulations27:02 - Technical Glitches?30:04 - AI Risks & Benefits33:57 - Restricting AI?36:19 - Wrap Up







Talking Points From This Episode









* Mining companies face significant cybersecurity risks due to remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states.







* A comprehensive cybersecurity framework and advanced technologies like EDR systems are necessary to mitigate mining sector risks.







* The financial cost of cyber attacks can exceed $14 trillion by 2027, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing cybersecurity for all industries.









Guest Linkshttps://www.welivesecurity.com/en/https://twitter.com/TonyAtESET







Tony Anscombe is Chief Security Evangelist for ESET. With over 20 years of security industry experience, Anscombe is an established author, blogger and speaker on the current threat landscape, security technologies and products, data protection, privacy and trust, and Internet safety. His speaking portfolio includes industry conferences RSA, Black Hat, VB, CTIA, MEF, Gartner Risk and Security Summit and the Child Internet Safety Summit (CIS). He is regularly quoted in cybersecurity, technology and business media, including BBC, Dark Reading, the Guardian, the New York Times and USA Today, with broadcast appearances on Bloomberg, BBC, CTV, KRON and CBS. Anscombe is a current board member of the NCSA and FOSI. Tony is based in the USA and represents ESET globally.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back mining executive and metals analyst David Jensen. Together they revisit concerns around the London gold market's dominance, estimated to account for 91-92% of the global gold trade. This is thanks to the Bank of England's 'regulatory oversight' since 1986, permitting unallocated gold contracts instead of physical bars. The market trades $500 billion of gold daily and and 2.9 billion ounces of silver. However, only around 3.5% of London's vaulted gold is actual physical. They contrast the LBMA with the Shanghai gold market and point out the key differences.







David argues that the London market functions as a price-setting mechanism rather than one of price discovery. They discuss Gibson's paradox, where interest rates follow price levels rather than inflation rate. Central banks benefit from this control scheme due to their control over monetary policy and debt levels using gold and silver as loose policy indicators.







David delves deeper into the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which regulates through a voluntary code of conduct called NIPPS which is under Bank of England oversight. The metals market are dominated in London, with around 90% global cash trading occurring there.







David raises concerns over the transparency and authenticity of silver holdings in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), questioning claims against metal, sub-custodians, potential rehypothecation or selling. The actual amount of silver held and its implications for interest rates and the economy if pricing proves fictitious are discussed.







Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:12 - Size of London Market7:07 - Paper Claims on Metals8:45 - Silver a Virtual Asset?9:50 - Opaque Market & Claims14:44 - Fractional Reserve Metals?15:57 - LBMA 'Code of Conduct'20:54 - Who Watches the Watchers22:09 - Settlement Definition24:29 - London Vs. New York25:35 - Futures & Cash Markets30:20 - ETFs & Bullion Banks33:08 - Honesty & Transparency?38:13 - Criticality Theory41:10 - Scales & Incentives42:18 - Wrap Up















Talking Points From This Episode









* London gold market dominates, allowing unallocated contracts. Central banks benefit from opacity, influencing monetary policy.







* Questions about physical holdings vs. claims in London's vaults impacting interest rates and the economy.







* Transparency concerns regarding ETF silver holdings, potential rehypothecation or selling of metal claims.









Guest Links:Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensenReddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE







David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.







Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.







Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private min...