#7: AI timelines, AI skepticism, and lock-in Future Matters
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- Philosophy
Future Matters is a newsletter about longtermism and existential risk by Matthew van der Merwe and Pablo Stafforini. Each month we curate and summarize relevant research and news from the community, and feature a conversation with a prominent researcher. You can also subscribe on Substack, read on the EA Forum and follow on Twitter. Future Matters is also available in Spanish.
00:00 Welcome to Future Matters.
00:57 Davidson — What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds.
02:19 Chow, Halperin & Mazlish — AGI and the EMH.
02:58 Hatfield-Dodds — Concrete reasons for hope about AI.
03:37 Karnofsky — Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment).
04:08 Vaintrob — Beware safety-washing.
04:45 Karnofsky — How we could stumble into AI catastrophe.
05:21 Liang & Manheim — Managing the transition to widespread metagenomic monitoring.
05:51 Crawford — Technological stagnation: why I came around.
06:38 Karnofsky — Spreading messages to help with the most important century.
07:16 Wynroe Atkinson & Sevilla — Literature review of transformative artificial intelligence timelines.
07:50 Yagudin, Mann & Sempere — Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines.
08:15 Dourado — Heretical thoughts on AI.
08:43 Browning & Veit — Longtermism and animals.
09:04 One-line summaries.
10:28 News.
14:13 Conversation with Lukas Finnveden.
14:37 Could you clarify what you mean by AGI and lock-in?
16:36 What are the five claims one could make about the long run trajectory of intelligent life?
18:26 What are the three claims about lock-in, conditional on the arrival of AGI?
20:21 Could lock-in still happen without whole brain emulation?
21:32 Could you explain why the form of alignment required for lock-in would be easier to solve?
23:12 Could you elaborate on the stability of the postulated long-lasting institutions and on potential threats?
26:02 Do you have any thoughts on the desirability of long-term lock-in?
28:24 What’s the story behind this report?
Future Matters is a newsletter about longtermism and existential risk by Matthew van der Merwe and Pablo Stafforini. Each month we curate and summarize relevant research and news from the community, and feature a conversation with a prominent researcher. You can also subscribe on Substack, read on the EA Forum and follow on Twitter. Future Matters is also available in Spanish.
00:00 Welcome to Future Matters.
00:57 Davidson — What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds.
02:19 Chow, Halperin & Mazlish — AGI and the EMH.
02:58 Hatfield-Dodds — Concrete reasons for hope about AI.
03:37 Karnofsky — Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment).
04:08 Vaintrob — Beware safety-washing.
04:45 Karnofsky — How we could stumble into AI catastrophe.
05:21 Liang & Manheim — Managing the transition to widespread metagenomic monitoring.
05:51 Crawford — Technological stagnation: why I came around.
06:38 Karnofsky — Spreading messages to help with the most important century.
07:16 Wynroe Atkinson & Sevilla — Literature review of transformative artificial intelligence timelines.
07:50 Yagudin, Mann & Sempere — Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines.
08:15 Dourado — Heretical thoughts on AI.
08:43 Browning & Veit — Longtermism and animals.
09:04 One-line summaries.
10:28 News.
14:13 Conversation with Lukas Finnveden.
14:37 Could you clarify what you mean by AGI and lock-in?
16:36 What are the five claims one could make about the long run trajectory of intelligent life?
18:26 What are the three claims about lock-in, conditional on the arrival of AGI?
20:21 Could lock-in still happen without whole brain emulation?
21:32 Could you explain why the form of alignment required for lock-in would be easier to solve?
23:12 Could you elaborate on the stability of the postulated long-lasting institutions and on potential threats?
26:02 Do you have any thoughts on the desirability of long-term lock-in?
28:24 What’s the story behind this report?