32 episodes

Geopolitical & Macro Strategy discussions focusing on risks around the globe that have the capacity to impact capital markets and the world economy

Academy Securities: Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast Academy Securities

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Geopolitical & Macro Strategy discussions focusing on risks around the globe that have the capacity to impact capital markets and the world economy



    Key Points:
    Peter Tchir Discusses the Need for Federal Assistance to Mitigate the Economic Impact of the Crisis
    We have now declared war on the coronavirus pandemic here in the United States.
    The goal is to slow the spread so our healthcare system can catch up (i.e. not be overwhelmed).
    The recommendation to stay home/limit activity will have an immediate impact on the economy.
    The Federal government needs to be more aggressive and take action to protect its citizens and make them financially “whole”.
    Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, this is a “bottoms up” problem and the effect will “trickle up”.
    General Spider Marks Comments on the National Mobilization
    National mobilization – much like in WWII and during national disasters like hurricanes.
    Invoking the Stafford Act – will grant the president additional powers.
    National Guard will continue to be engaged to help communities get through the crisis.
    Country cannot move into complete isolation; we will need to work together.
    Nation has made sacrifices before, and will make them again and overcome this.

    • 17 min
    Actions in Iran

    Actions in Iran

    Key Points: 
    Iran has been severely weakened by sanctions and the death of Soleimani further destabilizes Iran  
    The death of Soleimani is part of a three-part strategy:  
    Constrain Iran’s malign activity  
    Roll back Iran’s influence in the region - especially in Iraq 
    Deter further Iranian aggression 
    Iran hopes that the death of Soleimani would galvanize its population  
    Iran’s strategic information capabilities are significant  
    The IRGC are more ideologically entrenched than the conventional Iranian military forces  
    Iran is unlikely to want to confront the U.S. again in a direct fashion  
    Future attacks will allow Iran deniability  
    Attacks are likely to occur against U.S. allies in the region  
    Expect a back channel movement to establish a diplomatic resolution – ease sanctions  
    A significant portion of the Iraqi population wants Iranian influence out of Iraq  
    Kim Jung Un is watching this closely  
    China remains a critical aspect to resolution with North Korea  
    China could provide military and nuclear top cover for North Korea 
    For the first time, Iran, China, and Russia held joint naval exercises  
    Remains to be seen if this partnership will embolden Iran  
    Remains to be seen if Russia and China will stand behind the actions of Iran  
    If Iran attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, China would be greatly impacted  

    • 23 min
    A Strategic Partnership with Turkey

    A Strategic Partnership with Turkey

    Rachel Washburn and Lieutenant General Robert Walsh discuss the partnership between the United States and Turkey.  Recent escalations between Turkey and the Kurds in northern Syria has many Americans questioning the motives and thoughts behind the US reaction to the conflict.
    Table of Contents:U.S.-Turkey partnership history: 00:00 – 5:19Turkey’s cultural shift and relationships: 5:20 – 22:39Next steps: 22:40 – End
    Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions.  His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense.
    Previously, he served as the Assistant Deputy Commandant for Aviation, the Assistant Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration, and the Director of Expeditionary Warfare, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations.  In these assignments he was responsible for managing numerous vital warfare systems.  Lieutenant General Walsh’s operational and joint assignments included serving as the Commanding General, 2d Marine Aircraft Wing (Forward) Iraq and the Director of Operations, United States Northern Command. Lieutenant General Walsh has served as the Co-Chairman of both the Navy-Marine Corps and Army-Marine Corps Boards along with being Co-Chairman of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) – Marine Corps Investment Board and the Office of Naval Research – Marine Corps Investment Board. A native of Chicago, Illinois, Lieutenant General Walsh is a graduate of the United States Naval Academy and holds a Master of Science in National Security Studies from the National War College.  He served as an F/A-18 pilot at all levels to include commanding Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 115, Marine Aircraft Group 31, and 2d Marine Aircraft Wing (Forward) during Operation IRAQI FREEDOM.  He was an instructor at the Navy Fighter Weapons School, also known as TOPGUN.  He has received several writing awards. Additionally, Lieutenant General Walsh has testified before Congress on subjects such as modernization, acquisition, readiness and training of the Navy and Marine Corps.

    • 24 min
    Unrest in Hong Kong

    Unrest in Hong Kong

    Academy Securities Geopolitical SITREP  
    Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape 
    Table of Contents: 
    Hong Kong Protest Background: 00:00 - 4:33 
    Mainland China’s Response: 4:34 - 11:28 
    The View from Taiwan: 11:29 - 15:43 
    North Korea and China: 15:44 - 19:09 
    Listen on iTunes Here 
    Listen on Google Play 
    Key Points: 
    For the last several years, the market has failed to fully recognize that Hong Kong is a part of China - it isn’t completely independent.  
    If the U.S. were to respond to the crisis, it would be with more difficult terms around trade.  
    Much of the anti-government sentiment and protests began in April in response to an extradition bill. 
    China and Hong Kong are part of “one country two systems”: 
    The Hong Kong system and “basic law” protects civil freedoms of Hong Kong citizens. 
    The protesters wish to highlight the deterioration of these freedoms and protections.  
    The protests are not hierarchical or organized. 
    The protesters and their recent actions risk alienating the population to their cause.  
    China’s growing global influence could impact its response.  
    China’s deft social media and AI capabilities are important considerations when evaluating these protests. 
    Two U.S. Navy port visits have been canceled amid protests and accusations of U.S. involvement.  
    The Chinese People’s Armed Police - not Army - has massed on the Hong Kong boarder. 
    China is walking a fine line trying to diminish the impact of the protests while using limited force.  
    An escalation by mainland China would result in more disruptions to trade negotiations with the U.S.  
    Taiwan is watching what happens in Hong Kong very closely: 
    The events in Hong Kong could lead to more anti-Chinese/anti-communist sentiment in Taiwan.   
    The U.S. has approved new military sales to Taiwan and China has responded by increasing military operations around Taiwan. 
    North Korea remains economically dependent on China and China remains a consideration as we evaluate the ongoing negotiations with North Korea and its behavior. 

    • 19 min
    UK Royal Navy intervenes in protection of UK merchant vessels from the Iranian IRGC Navy

    UK Royal Navy intervenes in protection of UK merchant vessels from the Iranian IRGC Navy

    As events continue to develop in the Straights of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, tensions rise between Iran, the US, and other super powers active in these very valuable and necessary shipping lanes.  This week the UK Royal Navy had to place ships between a UK flagged merchant ship from BP and Iranian IRGC vessels.
    We immediately got on the phone to discuss this further with our Geopolitical & macro Strategy team members.  We had Lieutenant General Frank Kearney and Lieutenant General David Deptula were featured in this conversation.  
    I've also included sections from previous podcasts on the topic of Iran.  Those conversations feature Major General James "Spider" Marks and Brigadier General Tony Tata.
    There are also several written pieces we've published regarding this global concern.  They can be viewed by clicking here.

    • 37 min
    Trump & Kim DMZ Walk, G20, Iran, & Turkey

    Trump & Kim DMZ Walk, G20, Iran, & Turkey

    Academy Securities discusses the recent meeting between President Trump's & Kim Jong Un's meeting and walk through the demilitarized zone.  We also talk about the results (or lack there of) after the G20 summit in Japan.  The second half of the conversation focuses on the effect sanctions are having on Iran and recent election results in Turkey.

    • 23 min

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