The Site for Winners
Low sun, frozen tracks, 12 races this weekend discussed and all the winners free to access!
Lots discussed this week and it's an hour and 10 minutes of your life you'll never get back but well worth a listen. Sean and Ron discuss 12 races across Friday and Saturday and mention the dodgepot acca...and believe me, there are dodgepots all over the place on Saturday!
Below is the text of Ron's side of those race discussions, with his and Sean's selections.
Only three previous running’s of this race and impossible for me to find a selection using the runes, because I have no runes!
I’m not seeing a bet here, not least because we have Irish challengers, an Ian Williams trained hurdling debutante, who is fit off the flat having run second at Southwell recently and the trainer in form, running a 46% RTF%age figure, with three winners from his last 13 runners.
However, if there is a trainer in better form with hurdlers this season than Milton Harris, I’d be surprised. He’s running around a 24% strike rate with them this term and that’s stunning. He trains previous course and distance winner GALAH in this and is running a superb 62% RTF%age figure right now.
He’s brilliantly named being by Australia went off the even money favourite to win his race here on December 29th and beat TIKI FIRE, who takes him on again tomorrow, easily enough.
I expect him to run as well as any of the trainer’s runners have been and if I had to pick one to punt, it would be him. I’ll say 20/80 GALAH, for Podcast purposes….but I personally will not be betting.
RON – GALAH – 20/80
SEAN – LA RENOMMEE – E.W. or 20/80
Good little race this. Only five going to post which is a pity and it was the two that do not turn up that interested me most, EMMAS JOY, because that one is trained by Skelton and he has won this with the two he has sent for it, and QUICK WAVE, trained by Venetia Williams, who would have probably gone off favourite being rated just 1lb lower than VIENNA COURT, who will now probably go off favourite, and was set to receive 4lb. Look out for that one running in the Grand National Trial at Haydock on the 19th of February.
On official ratings this now looks a formality for VIENNA COURT, who runs off level weights with MASKADA, and is rated 8lb superior to that horse. She is rated 10lb superior to PINK LEGEND and yet only gives that mare 2lb, and both GALICE MACALO and SCHIAPARANNIE receive 4lb but are rated 15lb and 21lb inferior, respectively.
I cannot see past the Twiston-Davies runner….VIENNA COURT should win this.
RON – VIENNA COURT – STRAIGHT WIN
SEAN – VIENNA COURT – STRAIGHT WIN
Just eight going to post for this Triumph Hurdle Trial and with seven of the last nine winners in the front two on the tissue, I think it’s fair to create a two horse shortlist:
I cannot help thinking that PIED PIPER turns up here to give trainer Gordon Elliott a “sighter”. He trains the current short priced favourite FIL DOR, who is just 5/2 to win the Triumph in March.
If his horse dots up here, FIL DOR will probably shorten for that race.
Ok, so one of this pair above wins this but I doubt very much it will go on to win at Cheltenham. DEFI DU SEUIL was the last to do so in 2017 and before that nowt so it’s a trial in name only.
ICEO has two soft ground wins to his name but we are looking at good ground on Saturday. Having said that, PIED PIPER’s only win over hurdles to date came on heavy and, his last win for Gosden, on the flat, came on heavy, too.
I do not know which of these two will win and so, whilst accepting one will, I’m going to suggest a place only punt INTERNE DE SIVOLA.
This horse bolted up over course and distance on good to soft ground last time out and his trainer, Nick Williams, is 2-4 with runners in this. He actually took it last year with GALAHAD QUEST and in 2014 with that decent one, LE ROCHER.
INTERNE DE SIVOLA place only, for me.
RON – INTERNE DE S
Sunday Series, Baffert, 10/1 banker?, Venetia and nine winners this weekend and, all free to access!
For those hard of hearing please find below the text of my side of this weeks racing chatter, with Sean's selections added for those races discussed.
PODCAST TEXT 06/01/22
No previous running’s of this race, no odds to utilise from a trends point of view, three of the eight horses making racecourse debut, one of which has been introduced as a potential tissue favourite, JARAMILLO @ 6/4 and I feel very much like the blind leading the blind into this one.
The favourite was purchased for 100,000Gns out of Roger Varian’s yard and arrives with a flat rating of 85, which is decent enough and his best flat form figures came over 10 furlongs so he should get two miles over hurdles.
He will not need to be anything Istabraq-like to win this but his worst performances over hurdles came on ground with ease in it, his win was on good to firm.
I’d rather go with KAYFAST WARRIOR if I were betting. A course and distance winner, on soft, which it will be tomorrow and he was only rated 3lb inferior to JARAMILLO on the flat.
Do you want 6/4 with a question mark, or 11/4 with a thumbs up?
I’ll put up KAYFAST WARRIOR
RON – KAYFAST WARRIOR
SEAN – KAYFAST WARRIOR
This caused much mirth in my office when I saw what Sean had suggested! A Class 6 all weather race, that has never been run before.
What I noticed about these races in midweek, when I was covering all weather racing market movers, was the number of gambles taking place in the 30 minutes before the off time of each race. Some went in, some just failed, and some ran like Class 6 horses, that had not been told they were “off”.
I have nothing other than a gut feeling here.
I’m a big fan of Adam West and he does great with what he has in his yard. Here he saddles GLEN ROSA, who looks to me like a horse they have been plotting up. Since having wind surgery, they have campaigned the horse primarily in Class 6 over trip of up to a mile, no shorter than six furlongs, until last time out when they put him over five furlongs and he ran his best race to date, over course and distance, beaten just half a length @ 14/1
That was his first run in cheekpieces, which are retained tomorrow.
I’m going to put him up as a 20/80 with no confidence in him running two races like that back to back.
RON – GLEN ROSA 20/80
SEAN – CATCHING RYAN
Five currently set to go to post but it could be four if RAQISA Wetherby 12-50pm tomorrow.
Only two winners of this have managed to do so carrying more than 10st 12lb and so if that stat holds firm it’s between FAMILY TIME, MOULINS CLERMONT and MALAKHANA.
I’d rule out RAQISA even if it turns up because I cannot find a debutante that has won this in the last five years.
The last three running’s of this have gone to long odds on favourites and if you sit outside the front three on the tissue, stay at home because nine of the last 10 winners were on the podium.
I’m feeling an urge to go with MOULINS CLERMONT, a beaten favourite running for Gary Moore, whose yard is still running a cracking good 59% RTF%age figure and, he took this last year for the second time in the last nine years. He has actually run seven in this, won with two, placed with one.
This horse was a beaten favourite on debut and as he has been pulled out twice since because of the ground, which was similar to that he got thumped on first time up for Gary Moore, I’m assuming they have waited for the rain, a bit of soft ground, and they have it. His only run in France came on heavy and he was only beaten just over three lengths so let’s put him up another sporting punt….the market will tell us much more on the day.
RON – MOULINS CLERMONT
SEAN – FAMILY TIME
Just five again heading down the start as I speak and I’d love a tissue to work with as I’d only be interested in the two at the head of the market. They have won eight of the last nine runni
Bryony Frost and the price of a hot dog!
This weeks Podcast looks at the fallout from the Bryony Frost case, whether racing is for cheats only and the price of a pint and a hot dog on a racecourse.
Obviously, we've got loads of winners for you, too!
For those hard of hearing please find below my side of the races converstaion, with selections of both myself and Sean Trivass.
Best of luck!
Only five going to post and whilst I’ll not be betting here, I’m hoping JONBON is as impressive as he was on debut, lands the odds on for those that play and proves as good in 2023 over fences as I think he will be.
The “runes” say you need to be a four or five year old, carrying more than 11st and trading front two on the tissue….and arriving having won last time out (eight of the last 10 winners had done that).
I’m seeing 8/11 JONBON, then 5/1 KNAPPERS HILL….if anything else wins it, I’ll be stunned!...if JONBON doesn’t win, it wont be the end of the world as he’s a bona fide steeplechaser waiting to happen.
Cracking good race though and I’ve got to be with JONBON.
RON – JONBON
SEAN – I LIKE TO MOVE IT (E.W.)
Every winner in the last 10 years has been aged five, or six. Every winner in the same period of time has been front two on the tissue and seven of the last 10 winners arrived having won last time out. All 10 carried 11st or more.
Right now the market/weight/age stats tell me it’s between PIC D’ORHY and FAIVOIR….and with PIC D’ORHY having fallen last time out, and FAIVOIR winning, my selection has to be the Skelton runner.
He beat TORN AND FRAYED over course and distance last time out and the runner up ran a more than decent second to MY DROGO last weekend.
I’ll plump for FAIVOIR purely based on the runes.
RON – FAIVOIR
SEAN – PIC D’ORHY
No tissue at my end I’m afraid so all I can do is tell you what to look out for on Saturday.
I’ve only seven previous running’s of this to play around with but I’m seeing that you have to be with a five- or six-year-old, as only one of the seven previous winners wasn’t from those age groupings.
11st 3lb and above because the last six winners all carried between 11st 3lb and 11st 5lb.
Only one winning favourite to date but, only one winner so far going off bigger than 7/1….I’d love an accurate tissue at this moment but, there we are.
Right now I have two horses with no jockeys up yet so I’m not even in possession of the field size and making a definitive selection is impossible given how I work.
Once I have all those details in my locker I’ll post up my selection on the website.
RON – FRONTAL ASSAULT 20/80
SEAN – FRONTAL ASSAULT E.W.
I’m disappointed with this turnout. Seven going to post but all of them look ordinary to me.
Only nine previous running’s and seven of those went to 5-y-o’s.
All carted 11st or more, and all bar a pair were front two on the tissue. Again, I have no tissue but my advice again is to wait for a proper market to go up, look for a five year old, in the front two, and get on.
The most obvious selection is NINA THE TERRIER but she looked cooked when coming down at the last hurdle at Newbury and as we saw last weekend, when SCEAU ROYAL ran as flat as a pancake, Alan King could be sending some to the well to often this early in the season….this will be her fourth run….same as SCEAU ROYAL.
She will most likely fit the trends but I couldn’t back her.
RON – NO BET
SEAN – NINA THE TERRIER
After last weekends debacle, I’m not sure I ever want to say the words “all weather” again!
We both reasoned why COLTRANE had a great chance, advised an e.w. play at the 6/1, the horse goes off 6/4 favourite and finishes plum last. Trainers rep couldn’t give the stewards any idea as to why he ran like a drain, either!
I’m seeing I need to be working with a four or five year old, they’ve won seven of the last 10 betw
The Frost / Dunne case dominates discussion but plenty of races to work with, too!
Just as we were preparing for the Podcast the result of the hearing into bullying came through and that dominates the chatter but these are my words relating to the races discussed:
I’ll be providing Ratings for this race but for I’ve enough back stats to produce Scribblings, too.
Nothing younger than seven, nothing older than 10….and with only one winner in the last nine years younger than eight and seven of the last 10 winners aged eight or nine, I’m going to look to that pair of age groups for my winner here.
I’m seeing no weight advantage at all and we’ve even had two carrying less than 10st in 2014 and 2015.
Market position of the last 10 winners suggests you drop the favourite for both win and place suggestions. Only one of the last six has placed and not a winner in the last decade.
Front four on the tissue makes sense as six of the 10 were so the only qualifier here is COMMODORE, trained by Venetia Williams.
She has saddled four in this race, in the last 10 years, won with one, placed with another.
I’ll have COMMODORE as a 20/80
Ron – COMMODORE – 20/80
Sean – SANTINI – E.W.
A Cross Country event….I would close the curtains if they ran that in my back garden….hate them. They have no place at Cheltenham (he says, chucking a cat into the pigeon loft!).
Seriously, for betting purposes, I’d not spend a bean on them but Dick Dastardly has put it in the Podcast running order so, here goes….
In the last five years we’ve seen horses aged 11, 12, 8, 5 and 9 winning this but, generally, you want a nine year old…or older.
Definitely 11st or more on your back….nine of the last 10 winners suggest that is a positive trend, and in the first three on the tissue….eight of the last 10 winners were.
The winner, if trends speak the truth, is MIDNIGHT MAESTRO who is trained by the Cross Country King, Enda Bolger, runs in the colours of JP McManus, is a 9-y-o sitting co-favourite of three as I type and is a 20/80 @ the 5/1
Ron – MIDNIGHT MAESTRO – 20/80
Sean – ALPHA DES OBEAUX – E.W.
Obviously going to be won by a 3-y-o but, which one?
Weight stats are heavily in favour of horses carrying 11st or more and trading front two on the tissue and right now that horse would be PORTICELLO.
Another stat I’m liking is that four of the last five winners of this arrived having won last time out and of the front two on the tissue, he’s the only qualifier.
He won a Listed race at Wetherby turning cartwheels and arrives unbeaten in two career starts for a yard still bang in form and running a very healthy 51% RTF figure. The market for this has been funny in that since a tissue was put up, everything has drifted
Ron – PORTICELLO
Sean - KOLISI – E.W.
Five of the last seven winners of this went off odds on favourite and nine of those 10 winners arrived having either won or placed last time out.
In the last seven years only one winner went off bigger than 7/4 but this feels like a much weaker renewal than those that have gone before. I see no Defi Du Seuil, Apple’s Shakira, or Adagio in here and so bearing that in mind, I’m thinking that purely for Podcast purposes, I’m going to suggest a 20/80 MESSAGE PERSONNEL.
He arrives the only winner last time out and is currently priced up @ 6/1.
I was impressed with the favourite, YORKSEA, on debut but felt he has better horses that had tried to win the race, falling into his lap, which helped him nab third place.
This race did us a favour in 2019 when we were all over BOTOX HAS and I had the pleasure of being there with Post Racing members….a great day out and one I look forward to repeating at some point in the future.
I’ll go 20/80 MESSAGE PERSONNEL
Ron – MESSAGE PERSONNEL – 20/80
Sean – MESSAGE PERSONNEL – E.W.
A great shame that BOB OLINGER isn’t here because I wanted to see MY DROGO
12/1 winner of the Royal Bond and Sean’s on a Roll….literally!
The lads have been on brilliant form this week, Sean nailng the 12/1 winner of the Royal Bond last weekend, Ron advising a place only play RONALD PUMP, who again followed Honeysuckle home @ 22/1 and then notching an amazing 1966/1 Trifecta with a top three 1-2-3 in a Rated race on Saturday!
Ron's Podcast text this week reads:
The last 10 running’s have been dominated by horses aged five, six and seven. The six going to post tomorrow are five, six and seven.
With the exception of FLOWING CADENZA, they all carry 11st 2lb and as only one winner in the last decade has carried less than 11st, we can drop the 100/1 outsider.
We’ve had nine previous running’s of this race and the winner has only ever once been outside the front two on the tissue and right now it’s 6/4 joint favourite ADRIMEL and BOOTHILL.
It’s then 7/1 bar that pair.
BOOTHILL has had a race already this season and the word from Harry Fry’s yard is they think he could be top class over fences. I cannot see a winner of this previously, doing so on seasonal debut and so I’m with BOOTHILL as ADRIMEL has been missing for 237 days.
RON – BOOTHILL
SEAN - ADRIMEL
Only five heading to post but a little cracker, as all five arrive having won last time out.
Horses aged four, five and six have dominated this but as the five runner comprise of 3 x 5-y-o’s and a brace of 6-y-o’s, that’s no help.
The market though does give off fumes and even though the winners of this in 2018 and 2019 were priced 12/1 and 10/1 respectively, seven of the last 10 winners were sited from two on the tissue.
Right now you are looking to one of:
….if that trend holds up.
The latter is trained by Kim Bailey and his horses have not been firing during the first four weeks of the core season. He has only run three in the last two weeks and by contrast Paul Nicholls, who trains BRAVE KINGDOM, is bang on blob with 12 of his last 43 runners winning, and 11 others finishing second or third.
I’ll go with BRAVE KINGDOM but it’s not a race I’d like to have a bet in.
RON – BRAVE KINGDOM
SEAN – VIVA LAVILLA
I’m having Déjà vu!
I’m just going to revisit what I said last week as this race should have taken place at Carlisle, which we lost.
“ANOTHER WHERE ONLY FOUR ARE CURRENTLY GOING TO POST BUT INTRIGUING THAT MULLINS SENDS OVER ELIMAY AND HAS BOOKED BRIAN HUGHES TO RIDE HER.
Brian Hughes is now elsewhere and Aiden Coleman takes over the steering.
HE SENT BENIE DE DIEUX OVER TO WIN THIS IN 2017 AND I EXPECT ELIMAY TO GO OFF FAVOURITE AND WIN.
SHE RACES OFF LEVEL WEIGHTS WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE SECOND FAVOURITE ANNIE MC AND YET IS OFFICIALLY 7LB THE BETTER HORSE.
SHE IS ANOTHER IN ONE OF OUR 10 TO FOLLOW LINES AND I EXPECT POINTS ON THE BOARD.
RON – ELIMAY
SEAN – ELIMAY
ADDOSH carries a penalty because she has won a Class 2 weight for age and the last horse to win this doing likewise was GITANE DU BERLAIS in 2013.
That winner was trained by Willie Mullins and went off 5/4 favourite and on Saturday I’m thinking we’ll see another Irish trained favourite in WHITE PEPPER, although that has gone from 7/4 > 5/2.
All three years of age, all the horses I’m interested in carrying 10st 12lb and so all I have to apply here from a trends angle, is market position.
Last season we had a 14/1 boil over and in 2017 the Gavin Cromwell trained FAMOUS MILLY won @ 10/1 but outside that pair, nothing has won this priced bigger than 4/1
The only qualifier, currently, is WHITE PEPPER, also trained by Gavin Cromwell.
So many of these are wholly unexposed and so I’ll just post up WHITE PEPPER as my selection but again, not a race I’d play with cash.
RON – WHITE PEPPER
SEAN – ADDOSH E.W.
I’m only interested in older horses here as the last five winners have been aged 10, 9
40/1 winner last week, Ron’s gone for a weekend treble this time and Sean hopes to fulfil the ambition of a lifetime!
Can they follow that? A 40/1 Podcast winner from overseas last weekend but this week Sean and Ron discuss racing much closer to home.
For those hard of hearing and unable to tune in these are the words from Ron's side of the conversation, with selections from both himself, and Sean Trivass
I’D NOT WANT TO BE WORKING WITH ANYTHING OLDER THAN A SIX YEAR OLD AS HORSES SIX OR YOUNGER HAVE WON ALL NINE PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE.
AS EVERYTHING CARRIES 11ST OR MORE IT’S THE MARKETS WE GO TO FOR THE BEST CLUE AND THAT BEING NO HORSE OUTSIDE THE FRONT THREE ON THE TISSUE TO DATE, HAS WON THIS.
THE EARLY TISSUE THEREFORE SUGGESTS ONE OF
NINA THE TERRIER
ELLE EST BELLE
ALAN KING TRAINS THE CURRENT FAVOURITE, NINA THE TERRIER, WHO ARRIVES UNBEATEN THIS SEASON, BUT HE HAS TRIED SEVEN TIMES TO WIN THIS AND ONLY PLACED WITH THREE.
FOUR OF THR LAST FIVE WINNERS ARRIVED HAVING WON, OR FINISHED SECOND LAST TIME OUT AND THAT STAT WOULD RULE OUR ELLE EST BELLE, WHO CAME HOME THIRD LAST TIME WE SAW HER.
FAVOURITES HAVE A GREAT RECORD IN THIS AND I’M THINKING ALAN KING WILL BREAK HIS DUCK TOMORROW….I’M WITH NINA THE TERRIER.
RON – NINA THE TERRIER
SEAN – NINA THE TERRIER
ONLY FOUR GOING TO POST BUT IT LOOKS A DOOZIE!
HENRY DE BROMHEAD SENDS MR INCREDIBLE OVER FROM IRELAND AND HE LOOKED VERY GOOD ON SEASONAL DEBUT OVER THERE.
TRENDS TELL ME TO LOOK FOR A HORSE AGED FIVE OR SIX. THEY HAVE TAKEN EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 RUNNING’S.
AGAIN, WEIGHT MEANS NOTHING AS THEY ALL CARRY THE SAME BURDEN AND WHILST MARKET STATS INDICATE YOU NEED TO BE FRONT THREE ON THE TISSUE, ASHTOWN LAD TRADES 11/2 CURRENTLY, FOURTH FAVOURITE OF THE FOUR….BUT THIRD FAVOURITE IS 5/1.
IT IS THAT HORSE, FLASH COLLONGES, THAT INTERESTS ME MOST AS HE IS TRAINED BY PAUL NICHOLLS, WHO HAS WON THIS RACE THREE TIMES FROM EIGHT ENRTIRES, WINNING IT IN 2020, 2019 ANS 2013.
GREAT THINGS ARE EXPECTED FROM AHOY SENOR THIS YEAR. HE BEAT BRAVEMANSGAME AT AINTREE WHEN 66/1 AND THAT IS CRACKING GOOD FORM, IF IT WASN’T AN END OF SEASON RESULT.
I THINK ONE OF MR INCREDIBLE OR FLASH COLLONGES TAKES THIS AND WITH NICHOLLS HAVING WON THE LAST TWO RUNNING’S, ONCE WITH A SEASONAL DEBUTANTE, I’LL HAVE A LITTLE PUNT FLASH COLLONGES.
RON – FLASH COLLONGES
SEAN – AHOY SENOR
ANOTHER FOUR RUNNER RACE BUT THE MARKET SUGGESTS THERE IS VERY LITTLE BETWEEN ALL FOUR. ONEMOREFORTHEROAD IS CURRENTLY THE 4/1 “OUTSIDER”!
AGE GROUPINGS ARE TELLING ME NOTHING. HERE WE HAVE 2 X 5-Y-O’S TAKING ON 2 X 6-Y-O’S AND THE LAST FOUR RUNNINGS HAVE BEEN WON BY TWO FROM EACH OF THOSE AGE GROUPS.
THE LAST SIX WINNERS ALL CARRIED 11ST OR MORE AND THAT RULES OUT TWO, CAPTAIN MORGS AND ONEMOREFORTHEROAD.
OF THE PAIR LEFT, SOARING GLORY / GOWEL ROAD, THEY ARE BOTH COURSE AND DISTANCE WINNERS, AND IT’S HERE I HAVE TO GO ALL PEDANTIC.
WHEN A WINNER HAS CARRIED 11ST OR MORE TO VICTORY, IT HAS NOT CARRIED LESS THAN 11ST 3LB. TWO OF THE LAST FIVE WINNERS CARRIED 11ST 10LB AND THAT SUGGESTS TO ME I HAVE TO NOMINATE SOARING GLORY.
I SHOPULD ALSO POINT OUT THAT NICKY HENDERSON HAS TRAINED THE LAST TWO WINNERS AND FOUR OF THE LAST NINE SO IF YOU FANCY CAPTAIN MORGS DON’T LET ME PUT YOU OFF!
RON – SOARING GLORY
SEAN – SOARING GLORY
THE LAST THREE WINNERS OF THIS WENT IN AT 50/1, 40/1 AND 10/1….AND THE LAST SIX WINNERS HAVE ALL BEEN FIVE YEAR OLDS.
EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS ALL CARRIED 11ST 3LB OR MORE AND WHILST WE HAVE SEEN SOME TOTALLY BONKERS RESULTS MOST RECENTLY, THE NORM IS TO GO LOOKING FOR OUR WINNER IN THE FRONT FOUR ON THE TISSUE….SEVEN OF THE LAST NINE WINNERS WERE, INCLUDING THAT 10/1 SHOT LAST YEAR.
THAT MEANS I’M LOOKING TO ONE OF
RIGHT AGE, WEIGHT, MARKET POSITION.
ROSE DOBBIN TRAINS CAPTAIN QUINT AND IN THE LAST 10 YEARS SHE HAS SADDLED THREE FOR THIS, WON WITH