The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.
Fed Will Reverse Course on Rate Hikes, And Soon: Deer Point Macro
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Deer Point Macro joins the podcast to discuss his view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will only hike interest rates once more before easing.
Content Highlights The Fed is not some magical organization that can control all parts of monetary economics (2:50); The Fed can create demand for credit, but banks have to provide supply. And banks are pushing back (5:03); What to make of the Fed's rate hikes this year? How has that affected bank portfolios? (9:37); The eurodollar market plays a significant role in Fed policy and its implications. An explanation (13:24); The Fed stands to raise once more, at its next meeting in July, before having to cut rates in September (16:21); Inflation is stubbornly persistent. Doesn't this force the Fed to raise rates? (19:57); Background on the guest (30:14); Markets don't really react to ADP employment data, but for economic detective work it can be vitally important (31:48); How this all translates to asset prices: good for bonds but commercial banks are maybe not as safe as some would think. But regional banks may be a better bet (35:11); What about cryptocurrencies? (36:34); Quick discourse on the so-called 'Fisher effect' that posits that inflation rises as Fed funds increase -- over the long term (39:14). More on the Guest Substack: DeerPointMacro.substack.com; Twitter: @DeerPointMacro; CommonStock: DeerPointMacro.
Reasons for Optimism Amid 'Peak Pain': Kevin Rendino
This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber. Kevin Rendino of 180 Degree Capital joins the podcast to discuss reasons for optimism (yes, optimism) in markets and why we may have already reached "peak pain."
Content Highlights Valuations for most of the market are already discounting bad news across the board. Cash balances are at peak levels seen at the start of the pandemic, in 2008, and 2001 (2:44); What segments of the market are particularly interesting right now? Look to semiconductors for starters (4:54); How big of a concern is Fed policy? (7:20); Media companies will benefit as the economy resumes its growth and advertising budgets revamp. There are indications this cycle is already turning (13:49); What is 180 Capital's investing style and how does it work? (16:25); Background on the guest (25:17); The guest meets with company management often. What are some 'red flags' and 'green flags' he looks for? (31:38); The 'great resignation' and which companies may be a great 'pedigree' for future executives (38:18); Some parting guidance and why today's market feels more like 1990 than 2008 (43:17). More Information on the Guest Website: 180DegreeCapital.com; Twitter: @180DegreeCap; "Reasons for Hope" article; Stocks Mentioned on this Podcast 180 Degree Capital (TURN) -- the guest's publicly-traded fund; Lantronix (LTRX); Quantum (QMCO); Arena Group (AREN); Potbelly (PBPB). Not intended as investment advice.
Bearish Indicators Abound, With Downside Risks for Stocks: Ayesha Tariq
This episode was recorded on May 26, 2022 and released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- that same day. There are a host of other benefits to becoming a premium subscribers, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning by 0700 ET. To become a premium subscriber, sign up here or through our substack.
Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels).
Content Highlights The idea of a 'Fed pivot' away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01); What about inflation having peaked? Won't that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35); Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers -- but this won't stop the Fed either (11:28); Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57); What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32); Background on the guest (21:06); What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19); Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25); More Information on the Guest Website: AyeshaTariq.Substack.com; Twitter: @AyeshaTariq; CommonStock: AyeshaTariq. Not intended as investment advice.
Retail Analysts Are Smarter, Brooker Belcourt Has Proof
This podcast episode was recorded on May 11, 2022 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads or announcements, either!) To become a premium subscriber, go here or visit our Substack. Brooker Belcourt, CEO of Covey, joins the podcast to discuss his analyst platform and its ‘alpha algorithm’ that has been able to produce outperformance through its stock and ETF picks and crypto calls.
Content Highlights Covey’s contrarian thesis: Retail analysts are every bit as good, if not better, than institutional analysts (4:10); The idea of a platform to aggregate analyst opinion is not new. But very recent history has proven Covey correct: its analysts predicted the drop in cryptocurrencies and rise in value stocks over that have transpired over the last week (5:53); The ‘alpha algorithm’ and how that works (6:58); What is Covey’s algorithm picking up right now? (11:03); Some highlights: Long commodities, fertilizer stocks like Mosaic (MOS), financials, energy stocks, and a few beaten-up tech names like Facebook/Meta (FB) and Alibaba (BABA). Short cryptos has been taken off (14:46); Isn't Covey just chasing past performance hoping for future results? (17:20) Great investors appear to have staying power, regardless of environment (23:27); Background on the guest and how he came to start Covey (28:11); Deeper discussion on how Covey's top analysts are positioning their portfolios right now (36:39); For More Information Website: Covey.io; Twitter: @Covey_io;
This Correction Is Not A Buy Signal: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers — without ads or announcements — on April 28, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack. Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks.
Content Highlights Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28); Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line -- and how much (5:50); Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27); What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09); The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates -- and is not just 'jawboning' the market (12:58); This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40); Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02); Background on the guest and 'origin story' for Invictus Research (26:54); What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23); What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34); ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) "has been a terrific place to look for shorts -- quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament" (38:03); Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed 'breaks something' and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40); More Information on the Guest: Twitter: @InvictusMacro; Website: Invictus-Research.com.
No Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on April 19, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack. Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.
Content Highlights Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15); The Fed's talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is "just jawboning" (5:33); The era of 'buy & hold' is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25); The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40); The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25); Background on the guest (18:40); What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34); Why this may be a good time for this strategy -- and a 'turning point' for alternatives managers in general (26:27); Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think... (29:55); What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31); For More Information: LinkedIn; Twitter: @WeissMultiStrat.
Really insightful stuff!
Great pofcast! Highly recommended!