Star Spangled Gamblers Keendawg & Pratik

3-Part Episode
Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics.
Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Codex Ten forecasting competition.
Part III: Saul Munn explains how to organize the forecasting community
0:11: Pratik introduces VP segment
0:26: Pratik introduces Campbell segment
1:05: Pratik introduces Munn segment
4:09: VP segment begins
8:43: 2028 considerations
18:13: Campbell segment begins
22:55: Expertise and prediction
28:10: Interview with Munn begins
28:45: The importance of in-person events
29:00: Manifest's origins
30:46: The political gambling community
32:11: Transitioning from an online community
34:04: How to organize the forecasting community
36:05: University clubs
37:06: Reluctance to organize events
38:15: EA Global
40:59: Low bar to community-building
Bet on who Trump will select as his running mate at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.
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Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024.
Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it. 
Timestamps
0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection
1:44: Manifest 2024
7:18: Episode on VP nomination begins
7:43: What are SSG Title Belt Championships?
9:37: How Ben Freeman won the SSG Title Belt
11:56: Ben's proposed side bet on Trump's VP selection
13:36: Alex Chan's background
15:38: OpenBet/DonBest
19:26: How Alex got into political gambling
20:49: Political nerds vs. professional gamblers
22:36: Ben and Alex negotiate theie side bet
27:09: How Trump will select his VP
30:10: Loyalty considerations
32:21: Trump's strength in GOP
34:48: Will Trump penalize those who ran against him?
35:32: When will Trump announce the pick?
36:38: How deep is Trump's VP bench?
40:09: Has Trump already decided?
Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com
Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.

The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations.
Timestamps
0:00: Introduction
6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins
8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue
10:14: What is rulemaking?
11:24: Behnam's statement
11:48: Concerns about CFTC staff time on election contracts
14:25: Conflict of interest accusations against Kristin Johnson
17:34: Senator Tommy Tuberville's involvement
20:02: Goldsmith-Romero's views
25:13: Mersinger's dissent
27:38: Pham's dissent
31:10: Discord at the CFTC
32:01: Questions about CFTC enforcement
35:41: CFTC's power and resources
37:58: Behnam's political ambition
41:06: Pratik's critique of Mersinger's dissent
45:12: Pratik's impressions from attending CFTC meeting in person
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com
Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.

London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future.
Timestamps
4:03: Interview with Pip begins
4:11: Pip's background
11:02: What went wrong for Sunak?
21:35: How election timing is determined in UK
26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held
27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election
31:04: Impact of U.S. elections on UK election timing
34:55: Will Sunak be out before next elections?
39:36: Will Sunak quit?
40:21: Could Sunak be pushed out by his party?
Trade on Sunak and the next UK elections at Polymarket.com:
https://polymarket.com/event/rishi-sunak-out-before-next-uk-election?tid=1716178359054

https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-uk-election-be-held/uk-election-in-august-or-earlier?tid=1716178417342
Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year.
Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter
5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos
6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process
8:33: Best Market
9:27: Room temperature superconductor
10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market
11:23: Best Trade
11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market
12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1
12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei
13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song
13:12: Domer debt limit profits
13:17: Worst Trade
14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count
14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president
15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement
15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy
17:21: Best Shitposter
19:06: Domer's shitposting
19:56: RelayThief's shitposting
20:44: Rookie of the Year
21:12: Naman Mehndiratta
22:39: Manifold Markets
23:20: Betting platforms
23:48: TheWinner
25:29: Trader of the Year
25:46: ANoland
26:07: Gaeten Dugas
27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger)
28:33: Doug Campbell
29:05: Worst Pump
31:04: Kalshi election contracts
31:15: Hamas control of Gaza
32:00: Trump third indictment 
32:44: Semiconductor yes holders
33:40: RFK Democratic nominee
33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year
34:22: Best News Source
34:41: Politico Punchbowl
35:00: PredictIt comments
35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI
35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips
37:29: CSP Discord
38:36: Service to Political Gambling
38:36: PredictIt
39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck
39:56: Government Shutdown
40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump"
41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles
42:19: submarine debris
43:04: Trump indictment on March 31
43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages
44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute
44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack
45:59: Postscript
46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination
47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market at polymarket.com 
Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged.

Timestamps

0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling

3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important

8:15: Interview with Hemma begins

9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling

9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics?

11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor

16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift

16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real?

19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip

20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline

24:34: Swift's past relationships

27:57: The Eras Tour

31:23: Kelce's public statements

32:02: Do they want kids?

35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market

40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year?

44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topics
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