The Julia La Roche Show Julia La Roche

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 178 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market.  

In this episode, Mike Green discusses some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they've led to the current market conditions. 

Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.



Links:

Follow Mike on Twitter/x: https://twitter.com/profplum99 

Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/

Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/



0:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green 

0:56 Macro picture 

2:27 Markets 

4:30 The Boomers always win 

8:38 Assessment of the health of the economy 

12:00 Reduction in hours, increase in part-time work 

12:55 Impact of passive investing 

20:40 Largest stocks most affected by passive flows

23:00 Everyone has become automated 

25:17 How does this end? An accelerated reversal of the gains? 

28:49 Perception of retirement wealth

31:00 Ponzi funds 

35:30 Social security 

37:00 Markets divorced from fundamentals 

41:09 The Fed

Economist and investor Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 176 to discuss the current state of the economy and markets. 



Link: 

https://www.treussard.com/julia



Timestamps: 

00:00 Intro and welcome Jonathan Treussard

00:52 Macro view, confusing data, too much volatility 

04:11 Wealth inequality 

05:33 AI

06:33 Is the economy healthy? 

07:55 Money illusion

10:07 Bubbles and assessing market valuations

14:36 Geopolitics 

17:50 Middle class 

19:50 From musician to economist

27:15 Changing perception of America

30:34 Market risks: Nvidia, CRE, Private Equity, and Private Credit

36:00 Banking system 

38:33 Concerns about CRE and private credit

41:37 Making decisions under uncertainty 

45:12 Parting thoughts

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 175 to discuss the economy, the risk in commercial real estate, the upcoming presidential election, and the status of the American dream.  



Links: 

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen 

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ 

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/



Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 

1:55 Macro view today, an indication that the tide is going back out

4:40 Residential housing will be the last headwind 

5:50 Health of the economy? ‘We’re hiding a lot’ 

7:10 Commercial could be the source of the next financial crisis 

11:50 Presidential election 

14:00 What a Trump victory would mean 

16:00 Our debt and deficit — We’re headed toward a crisis

18:40 The Fed 

21:40 Fed’s focus on language and turning markets into a Kindergarten exercise 

23:30 We’ve turned the Fed into a corporate earnings exercise 

26:00 Inflation 

28:31 The American Dream 

31:00 Parting thoughts 

"Reformed" hedge fund manager James Lavish, the author of The Informationist newsletter and founder/managing partner of The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, joins Julia La Roche on episode 174 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, the pockets of recession especially in the private sector, and a deep dive into the debt problem in the U.S. 



Links: 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish

The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/

The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/ 



Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro and welcome James Lavish

1:00 Macro view 

2:30 Pockets of recession, fiscal dominance, inflation

5:08 Highly manipulated numbers, CPI  

10:30 Deficit spending and the economy 

12:40 Debt spiral and why the U.S. is a ‘zombie’ 

17:20 They’re going to print so much money it’s going to shock people 

19:50 U.S. Treasuries 

28:15 Stagflation 

30:00 Dallas Fed survey: recession red flag? 

35:00 The government will continue to recklessly spend 

37:03 FOMC and jobs 

40:50 Parting thoughts, asset allocation

Dave Collum, Professor of organic chemistry at Cornell University and Zero Hedge Contributor, joins The Julia La Roche to share his views on the economy and markets. In this episode, Professor Collum makes a case that the market today looks “more insane than the dot-com bubble” and why we could be headed for a 40-year bear market.



Links: 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/DavidBCollum

Year-end review: https://peakprosperity.com/dave-collums-2023-year-in-review-down-some-dark-rabbit-holes/



Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro and welcome Dave Collum 

1:18 Lessons in chemistry 

7:00 Investing — bonds, equities, gold 

9:10 Gold 

14:47 Elizabeth Warren 

17:15 Financial crisis 

20:13 Case for a 40-year bear market 

21:30 Macro view — about to start a serious downturn and we’ve had no pain 

29:30 Demographics 

30:58 Tailwinds 

33:20 BRICs

36:40 Election 

42:02 How do you prepare for this macro environment + bear market thesis + end of American experiment 

45:00 Prepper

47:19 Bitcoin 

49:08 Performance this year — ‘an old man’s portfolio’ 

51:23 Not your typical Ivy League professor + campus culture today as someone who is “Trump tolerant” + cancel culture 

1:04:37 Optimism  

1:11:58 Closing 

John Cochrane, the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and former professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and, before that, the Department of Economics, joins Julia on episode 172. Professor Cochrane is the author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level book, and he writes the Grumpy Economist blog. and In this episode, Professor Cochrane discusses the current state of the US economy, the fiscal theory of the price level, the causes and challenges of inflation, and the concerning levels of government debt. He emphasizes the need for supply-side efficiency and fiscal discipline to sustain economic growth and control inflation. Cochrane also highlights the limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the importance of responsible fiscal policy in addressing the fiscal picture. He suggests reforming the tax code, social programs and reducing middle-class subsidies are necessary to ensure long-term sustainability. 

Cochrane concludes by emphasizing the need to pay attention to incentives and the interconnectedness of various policies. He also mentions the potential of AI and biotech to drive future growth and warns against stifling innovation.

Takeaways: 




The US economy is currently experiencing low unemployment and a bout of inflation caused by government stimulus.
The fiscal theory of the price level explains that money, government debt, and inflation are interconnected, and the quantity of money and government bonds both impact inflation.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has limitations in controlling inflation, and fiscal policy plays a crucial role in addressing inflation and government debt.
To fix the fiscal picture, it is necessary to reform the tax code, social programs, and reduce middle-class subsidies to ensure long-term sustainability.
Responsible fiscal policy, economic growth, and steady primary surpluses are essential to control inflation and maintain a stable economy. The US economy may be more fragile than it appears, with concerns about the ability to pay back debts and the difficulty of selling longer-term debt.
Forecasting inflation is challenging, and the Federal Reserve and other forecasters have often missed the mark. The mechanics of inflation are similar to the stock market, and there are risks of higher inflation in certain scenarios.
Fiscal dominance refers to the constraint on monetary policy caused by fiscal policy. The ability to control inflation through fiscal policy may be more challenging now.
The Federal Reserve was slow to act on inflation and needs to consider a wider range of scenarios and incentives in its decision-making process.
The biggest economic story in our lifetimes is long-term growth and the importance of embracing new technologies and innovation. Incentives play a crucial role in solving economic problems and driving growth.
Social programs and the tax code need to be examined together to understand the full impact on incentives and redistribution.
The interconnectedness of policies and the need to consider the whole system when addressing economic challenges.



Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/JohnHCochrane

Website: https://www.johnhcochrane.com/

Substack: https://substack.com/@grumpyeconomist

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Fiscal-Theory-Price-Level/dp/0691242240







Timestamps: 



00:00 Intro and welcome John Cochrane 

01:30 Macro picture and understanding inflation

04:00 We’re a supply-limited economy, more money and stimulus thrown down ratholes won’t make the economy grow 

05:30 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

11:35 Limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy

17:00 History lesson on 1970s, 1980s inflation 

19:00 Fiscal picture today and possible solutions 

25:00 The fragility of the US economy

31:00 More persistent inflation

37:55 Fiscal Dominance

41:00 Assessing th