Stansberry Investor Hour Stansberry Research

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Lyn Alden to the show. Lyn is an independent analyst, bestselling author, and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy – an investment research service for both retail and institutional investors. She kicks the podcast off by describing how her background in engineering has influenced her macroeconomic investing style. She explains why she became so interested in macroeconomics in the first place and why 2017 was a turning point for the U.S. economy. Lyn also talks about fiscal dominance – or when fiscal deficits and federal debts are large enough that they start reducing a central bank's options. She puts this in the historical context of the 1970s and clarifies why inflation and interest rates are so complexly intertwined today. (4:39)
Next, Lyn shares her outlook for the U.S. economy, including higher-than-baseline inflation for the foreseeable future and the country being in a similar situation to emerging markets. She discusses areas of the market where fiscal dominance has been appearing over the past few years, how the 2010s taught investors the wrong lesson, why the U.S. may experience the same economic troubles that Japan is facing right now, and the divergence between sectors going through recessions versus those that benefit from deficits. (16:42)
Lastly, Lyn cautions listeners against using the traditional 60/40 portfolio in inflationary environments like today's and instead urges them to prioritize energy, precious metals, and hard assets. She also breaks down why she finds Latin America so attractive today (particularly Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico) and gives an in-depth explanation of how technology impacts money. (34:03)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing the backlash to Argentine President Javier Milei's economic shake-up, including his devaluing the peso against the U.S. dollar and laying off thousands of government workers. Plus, they share their thoughts on the latest speculative meme craze – closed-end fund Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) – and what it means for the broader market. (54:28)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by the founder and president of Chisholm Exploration, Cactus Schroeder. Cactus kicks off the conversation by describing the current economics of the oil industry, why rig counts are deceptive, what's happening with the Haynesville Shale and Marcellus Shale, and the upside in natural gas. He also explains why the Barnett Shale has become so attractive, how Chisholm Exploration differs from the oil majors, and how these larger companies essentially control the price of oil. (4:18)
Next, Cactus discusses why his company prefers oil to natural gas, earthquakes as a side effect of drilling, and how the Biden administration has been hampering exploration and pipeline development. He also details his experience in the Eastern Shelf region, including both good and bad wells and royalty interests. (21:52)
Lastly, Cactus covers the oil major he finds the most interesting today, the green-energy movement, and what's on the horizon for oil. He brings up Saudi Arabia cutting oil production in an effort to make prices reach $100 per barrel, the consequences of the war in Gaza, and the ongoing fight between land ownership and mineral rights in different states. (31:03)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing the consequences of the Drug Enforcement Administration moving to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug. They analyze what has
been happening with cannabis stocks since the announcement and the tax implications behind the move. Plus, they talk about Starbucks' recent disappointing earnings report and what weight-loss drugs becoming more available could mean for the economy and certain stocks. (53:32)

David Trainer, the founder and CEO of New Constructs, joins the show. He kicks off the conversation by describing how his company takes value investing to the next level with AI. He explains that the days of buying stocks and holding them forever are gone. Today's investing landscape requires investors to be more agile, and AI helps with this. David specifically mentions how he uses AI to sort through millions of financial filings, footnotes, and data points to give him an edge and produce better results. However, he warns that AI is only as good as the data that goes into it. (3:49)
Then, David talks in depth about how humans are still involved in the investing process, including making decisions when the AI is unsure how to interpret certain findings. He breaks down how New Constructs' technology is giving clients a competitive advantage and augmenting the rest of their strategy. Plus, David discusses the importance of using both technicals and fundamentals when investing, and he shares why expectations matter so much to valuation. (14:34)
Lastly, David names the two sectors he finds most attractive and two that folks should avoid. This segues into a conversation about a recent pump-and-dump scheme used to take advantage of retail investors, why the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't take action even when it should, and the damage done by years of low interest rates. (33:35)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing inflation and the hotter-than-expected numbers for the personal consumption expenditures index. They cover unrealistic investor expectations for rate cuts, the government's misplaced priorities, and the very real consequences of this persistent inflation on workers and small businesses. (51:20)

David Daglio, the chief investment officer and global investment strategist of wealth-
advisory firm TwinFocus, joins the show. He kicks things off by describing himself as a
contrarian, and he explains that understanding who you are as a person will lead to the best
investing results. After, he goes into detail on how TwinFocus looks for creative "straw hat"
solutions that the market isn't seeing. Plus, he talks about risk premiums, the current
opportunity in natural gas, and the 30-year discount in gold-mining stocks. (3:29)

Next, David discusses the advantages and disadvantages of working at a large firm versus
being an individual investor. He shares that individual investors have the advantage of not
being overloaded with information, plus they're their own boss and can make their own
decisions. David also details the three conditions TwinFocus looks for before jumping into an
investment, the importance of recognizing your own intellectual biases, and how market
skepticism can be a huge opportunity. (15:29)

Lastly, David talks about "net-net" companies in the biotech sector that are trading for less
than their total assets... he breaks down what capital imbalance is and how to spot it... and
he explains that the savviest investors try to be like Spock from Star Trek, valuing facts over
feelings. (28:49)

Dan and Corey close out the podcast by discussing the Stansberry Research editorial
meeting that happened last week. This meeting brings Stansberry's editors and analysts
together to discuss different investing ideas and pertinent world news. One of the hot topics
at the meeting was the presidential election in November. Dan and Corey emphasize that
the best investors keep politics out of their investing decisions and stick to their core
strategy regardless of which candidate takes office. (49:22)

Gary Mishuris of Silver Ring Value Partners talks about today's market being one of the most challenging periods for bottom-up investing since 2007. In terms of the quality of a business
versus its stock price, there isn't a lot of opportunity right now. But he emphasizes that transparency and candor with clients is essential, as is prioritizing the long-term process
over short-term performance. (5:19)

Next, Gary describes what sets Silver Ring Value apart from other fund managers. He shares why he left the "sausage factory" of larger firms behind, how his firm makes money for
clients rather than off of clients, and how his unique temperament and behavioral models allow him to make better investing decisions. (14:38)

Gary also goes into detail on the psychology behind investing and compares it with a game of poker. He talks about trying to avoid making mistakes, continuously learning from past
errors, the importance of having guardrails in place, and cutting your losses. (21:44)

Then, Gary explains why you should never be ashamed to change your mind, even when you haven't received any new information. It's OK to reanalyze the same set of facts and admit
that you were wrong, and he cites several examples of investors who have learned and grown from their past mistakes. (31:21)

Lastly, Dan and Corey discuss the consumer price index and gold. Inflation came in hotter than expected, while gold has broken out to new highs. Dan and Corey speculate on how long gold's bull run can last. Plus, they detail gold being a good hedge for retirement against the government's money-printing addiction. (48:18)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing inflation staying persistently higher, rampant government spending and money-printing, and the repercussions of the Federal Reserve's decade-plus of low interest rates. (0:41)
Next, Cambria Investment Management's Meb Faber joins the conversation to talk about the exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") at Cambria and why the team focuses on shareholder yield when picking stocks for these ETFs. He breaks down the importance of shareholder yield in mega-bubble markets like today's and urges investors to pay more attention to it. (24:25)
Meb then discusses managing risk on a portfolio level, including focusing on quality and value. He also covers why emerging and foreign markets are so attractive today, the opportunity in fixed-income investments like bonds and Treasury bills, and how higher interest rates have changed the game. (38:21)
Finally, Meb describes himself as a value investor and shares which areas of the economy he's most concerned about. He talks about inflation driving commodities sharply higher, gold hitting new highs, and why investing at all-time highs can still be a smart choice. (56:43)