Weekly Market View Demeter Research

Matt and Alex discuss currencies and then global stock market indices.
At 8:25, Matt reviews modest commercial changes in British Pound and Australian Dollar positioning and reiterates his bearish view of Dollar Index futures.
At 12:00, Matt notes that the commercials are continuing to add to their heavy long position in volatility futures.
At 13:00, Matt notes that the commercial banks are beginning to hold a significant short position in the Nasdaq 100.
At 14:00, Matt discusses increasingly large short positions in Emerging Markets and EAFE futures.

Matt and Alex discuss currencies, metals, and then global stock market indices.
At 13:30, Matt reviews the concentrated long positions the commercial banks own in the Euro, British Pound, and Australian Dollar.
At 15:55, Matt notes that the commercial banks are now holding a concentrated short position in emerging market futures.
At 16:15, Matt notes that the commercials are still heavily long volatility futures.
At 17:40, Matt states his belief that Nikkei hit a significant top during the previous week, and has gone short.
At 19:20, Matt reviews the metals markets and then Matt and Alex discuss odds and ends including the USD, Fed and rates.

Matt and Alex discuss currencies and then global stock market indices.
At 9:25, Matt says commercial traders are heavily long British Pound, Euro, and Australian Dollar futures constituting 50%, 30%, and 70% of long-side open interest, respectively.
At 11:00, Matt conversely notes that commercial traders are heavily short US Dollar Index futures. He further notes that there is a good chance the US Dollar Index has peaked and gives his parameters for additional upside if the dollar hasn’t fully completed its upside pattern.
At 15:25, Matt notes that the commercials have gone heavily short Emerging Market futures and continue to increase their long-position in VIX volatility futures.
At 16:20, Alex and Matt discuss bearish looking patterns in the broad stock market.

Matt and Alex discuss currencies and then global stock market indices.

At 6:00, Matt says he believes the British Pound and Euro are very close to a bottom. He mentions that the commercials are long 112,000 British Pound future contacts (105,000 net), which represents 50% of the long open interest.
At 7:10, Matt says the Dollar Index is back near his target high and might consider shorting Dollar futures soon.
At 10:15, Matt discusses his long-term bullish view of the Australian Dollar but notes that there is a high correlation between AUD and gold. He is waiting for a bottom in gold before getting short-term bullish AUD.
At 15:30, Matt agrees with Alex’s bearish view of the US stock market and notes that the banks large long position in volatility futures, suggests a selloff is coming soon.
At 16:45, Matt says Nikkei is getting close to a target high.

Matt and Alex discuss the continued buildup of commercial longs in VIX volatility futures and the likely implications for the stock market. Matt and Alex then discuss currency markets.

At 5:30, Matt indicates that commercial banks are now net long 67K VIX futures – which continues to foreshadow a near-term (4-6 week) rise in volatility, and thus a drop in the stock market.
At 10:50, Matt states that he believes the Euro and British Pound either touched a major bottom or came very close. In addition, Matt states the US Dollar Index may have already topped.
At 16:00, Matt states that after re-examining his charts, he believes oil may still be holding above support, however he suggest a new low would convincingly break support and would likely lead to prices in the low $30s.

Moving to a shorter format, Matt and Alex discuss the buildup of commercial longs in VIX volatility futures and the likely implications for the stock market. Matt and Alex then debate the medium-term direction of the US Dollar.

At 4:25, Matt indicated that commercial banks are net long 60K VIX futures – which should indicates their belief that near-term (4-6 weeks) volatility will rise.
At 8:10, Matt states that he believes the British Pound is at or very near a very significant bottom.
At 9:00, Alex suggests that the US Dollar may be in a structural bull market. Matt disagrees based upon his technical readings as well as COT positioning.
At 16:50, Matt and Alex reiterate their bearish view of the stock market.