Capital Economics Weekly Briefing Capital Economics

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what’s happening in France and what that means for the bond market. He also assesses the Fed’s June meeting and previews what the Bank of England could decide on Thursday – as well as the discussing how the onset of elections could influence these institutions. (00:00-13:30)
Plus, following the European Union’s announcement of plans to slap tariffs on Chinese EV imports, Andrew Kenningham and Mark Williams talk through the Union’s strategy, comparing how it stacks up against similar US measures announced just a few weeks ago. (15:54-25:22)
Finally, as OPEC lashes out at IEA oil demand forecasts, Olivia Cross talks to Elias Hilmer about our own long-term forecasts for when fossil fuel demand will peak. (26:46-31:02)

Will the US continue to dominate the global economy in the coming years? Will China or Europe ever catch up? Is the US where investors will continue to see stronger stock market returns? 
The question of US outperformance runs to the heart of the global economic outlook and is the subject of our Spotlight project for 2024. Spotlight is our annual step back from the ebb and flow of macro to dive into those tectonic issues that will shape the global economy and markets and Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown and Hubert de Barochez, a senior economist on our Markets team, are on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss some of the key takeaways from this work.
In their discussion with David Wilder, they talk about the drivers of outperformance, the potential challenges to US dominance, and what happens to relative returns when the US stock market bubble bursts. 
The Spotlight project launches on Monday, 10th June and details of the project and in-person and on-line events can be found here. 

The European Central Bank is likely to become the first major advanced economy central bank to cut rates since the end of the pandemic when it meets this Thursday – easing policy ahead of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. 
It’s a move that’s been well flagged by ECB officials, but it’s also one that they probably wouldn’t have signalled quite so strongly given what the latest inflation data show. 
In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Europe economists Andrew Kenningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds preview a key moment in the global economy’s post-pandemic inflation-interest rate cycle. 
They explain the rationale for this Thursday’s likely move and why the path ahead for easing is less assured.  Andrew and Jack also put this ECB decision in its international context, exploring the risks around lowering European rates even as the Fed stands pat. 

How important are elections for the trajectory of economies? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics explains why the just-announced general election may not be hugely consequential for the UK economy, but also why South Africa’s vote this coming Wednesday could prove momentous. 
In the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews key inflation data for the US and euro-zone, discusses the latest on the timing of rate cuts and talks about whether an investment frenzy in artificial intelligence is translating into productivity benefits.
EM Economists David Omojomolo and Jason Tuvey are also on the show, exploring possible outcomes for South African party politics and their economic implications as the sun sets on thirty years of ANC dominance. 
Plus, an exclusive clip from our UK election briefing outlines some of the key issues around the July 4 vote, including the fiscal constraints that await the winner, structural reforms and this election’s potential long-term economic impact. 

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and explains what to expect from the coming week’s UK CPI release.
Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is also on the show, talking to David Wilder about this month’s recovery in US equities, our no longer out-of-consensus 2024 and 2025 forecasts and what to look for before the market bubble finally bursts. 
And there’s more on those China tariffs, with an exclusive clip from our client briefing about how Europe could respond to Chinese EV imports and whether higher US tariffs will lead to a further reordering of global trade flows.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the latest signals from the Bank of England and that Q1 UK GDP report mean in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. He also previews the coming week’s US inflation data, tells David Wilder why EM monetary easing will need to slow and puts the US current account deficit in context. 
Also on the show, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks to Leah Fahy from our China team about what his analysis of Chinese auto production and exports says about what’s been missing from the growing global row about Chinese industrial overcapacity.
And, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing about global inflation, the team talk services inflation and signs of labour market softening on both sides of the Atlantic.