At Any Rate J.P. Morgan Research

This week our global FX strategists Patrick Locke, Arindam Sandilya & James Nelligan discuss outlooks and targets for the broad dollar, with a focus on USD/CNY, EUR/USD,USD/JPY and GBP/USD.
 
SpeakersPatrick Locke,  Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
 
This podcast was recorded on 09June2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4432524-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US oil producers are off to a hot start of the year while gas producers are seeing movement as well. Total US liquids production (crude, condensate, and natural gas liquids) has reached an all-time high of 18.9 mbd in March. Our basin-level production forecasts for both oil and gas are changing shape – driven by upside in the Permian and the falling rig counts in the US. Even with rigs falling, the locations are key as gas declines are expected by July.  
 
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities
Cole Wolf, Global Commodities
 
This podcast was recorded on 09 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4435603-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
 

Meera Chandan & Patrick Locke discuss the FX implications from the resolution of the latest debt ceiling episode through the lens of growth, risk premium and liquidity.
This podcast was recorded on 05 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428044-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

OPEC+ alliance is scheduled to meet in Vienna this weekend amid continued weakness in crude’s price structure—both flat price and time spreads—along with increased speculative short positioning. On paper, and assuming no recession, OPEC’s April cuts should suffice to tighten oil balances in the second half of the year. Yet, so far the promise of future bullish supply tightening has not convinced the market of rising oil prices. It will take evidence in the physical markets (e.g., backwardation) to confirm what our balances imply before oil price can stabilize and begin to grind higher. For that, the alliance—or at least some members—would likely need to cut more. Communication is just as important as action in terms of market reaction to any cut. To avoid fueling the prevailing market narrative, it is important to stress that demand growth continues to be robust. Rather, there is simply too much supply. 
 
SpeakersNatasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research 
 
This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
 

In this podcast, we discuss how the passage of debt ceiling legislation and the attendant rise in the TGA is likely to impact US rates markets.
 
Speakers
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy
Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research
 
 
This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4424256-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
 

The healthy cushion in storage created by a mild winter for the European natural gas market has now put it on a direct path for storage congestion, potentially as early as August. Strong LNG imports amid weaker-than-anticipated global LNG demand and lackluster industrial demand even at lower prices continue to contribute to these fears of storage congestion. In this episode, we discuss our view for the slide in European natural gas price – a potential soft price floor that can emerge with lower prices encouraging demand - particularly in the power sector. 
 
SpeakerShikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities Research 
 
This podcast was recorded on 26 May 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4413200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.