Capital Economics Weekly Briefing Capital Economics

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks a tumultuous week that ended on a high. April's soft payrolls report may have given the market much-needed evidence that US disinflationary forces are gathering, but will that sway the Fed? And what can investors expect from the Bank of England this coming week?
 
Neil also frames Xi Jinping’s trip to Europe against a backdrop of rising global trade tensions and previews our upcoming ‘Spotlight’ project, which will answer the question of whether US economic and financial market dominance will continue. 
Plus, Abhijit Surya from our ANZ team lays out our case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday and, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing, our Commodities team discuss Saudi and Russian oil production in the run-up to the US election and why the copper price rally looks overdone.

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews the coming week’s Fed meeting, tackles market talk that the next move on the US policy rate could be up, addresses an intriguing report about Fed independence and decries the absence of a grown-up conversation around fiscal commitments. 
Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, is also on the show to talk about what he picked up about the true state of the Chinese economy during a visit to Beijing and Shanghai. 
Plus, with all eyes on the dollar, an exclusive clip from our online Drop-In briefing on the risks to emerging market economies from a stronger-for-longer greenback.  

In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing assesses just how much the global inflation picture has really changed in the wake of that US March CPI print. He talks to David Wilder about which central banks are likely to cut when, previews a busy week of economic data and explains why a strong dollar isn't as much of a problem for the global economy as many think. And, in the wake of retaliatory Israeli strikes on Iran, he explains how investors should tackle macro and market risks amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 
Also on the podcast, Deputy Chief Global Economist Simon MacAdam discusses his new report about why excess savings should no longer be considered an issue for DM policymakers and an exclusive clip from our online client briefing about the outlook for financial markets.

Janet Yellen lent official voice to resurgent global worries about the threat of Chinese overcapacity when she pointedly criticised Beijing’s overinvestment and underpowered consumption during her trip there earlier this month. 
 
But are the US Treasury Secretary’s criticisms justified? Will China’s leaders push through the necessary reforms to bring down the savings rate? And how will western governments respond if they don’t? 
 
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, all about the politics and economics around the perception that China’s factories are once again flooding global goods markets. 

The EM team has taken over the podcast this week to highlight two of the biggest issues in emerging market investing. 
 
William Jackson talks to Shilan Shah about how emerging market economies will fare as fossil fuels are phased out in favour of green technologies. From oil producers in the Gulf and Africa to geopolitics and supply chains, William and Shilan tackle some of the key risks and opportunities facing emerging markets as the green transition progresses.
 
Also, Liam Peach explains how his EM Financial Risk Indicators act as an early warning system for investors trying to identify bank, debt and FX vulnerabilities. In his discussion with Jason Tuvey, Liam talks about which economies are currently flashing red.
Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode. 

Before Neil Shearing gets on to discussing the key takeaways from our latest Global Economic Outlook, he talks to David Wilder about the inflationary risks stemming from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge at Baltimore’s port. 
 
The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also explains what to make of the apparent contradiction of US business leaders making high-profile visits to China even as the US and UK governments slap sanctions on state-affiliated hackers.
 
Also, this November’s big election is happening in the US but is being watched closely worldwide – not least in Canada and Mexico. Jason Tuvey and Stephen Brown talk through the risks of a potential re-election of Donald Trump, not least to the tripartite trade pact. 
Note: This week's episode is being published early ahead of public holidays in the UK. The next Weekly Briefing will be published on Monday, 8th April.