ReConsider Erik Fogg

There’s something really interesting happening in Ukraine. The few and far between Russian victories seem to be making them weaker. Yes, you read that right. Russian victories are draining the life out of their soldiers, making it harder to win the battles that come next. On the other hand, Ukrainian victories have been swift, dramatic, and devastating - with each win seemingly making them stronger.
The big question is, why is it that Ukrainians gain momentum with every win, but Russia can’t seem to build on their victories? Well, it all comes down to asymmetric momentum. And there are 6 major reasons for this. 
Tune in to hear what these 6 reasons are and how the recent Ukrainian victories mark a critical juncture that will determine the course of the war.

Topics Covered Include:00:00 Introduction
02:40 What is asymmetric momentum?
04:49 Ukrain’s positional warfare
06:55 Understanding Ukraine’s offensive and defensive strategies
08:16 Russia’s unintelligent retreat
10:37 How Russian political interests are affecting their progress
14:54 The poor discipline and lack of drive in Russian forces
16:42 Is the Russian army competent enough to win this war?
18:00 How Russia’s desire for a quick war is slowing their progress
20:40 Ukrainian motivation and their willingness to die for the right reasons
24:58 The impatient side of Russians uncovered
28:30 Many Russian conscripts will die due to lack of training and morale
29:36 The psychology behind Putin’s destructive Soviet-style leadership
32:04 Ukraine is playing the patient game
34:07 Summary
35:36 Parting thoughts 
Ukrainian victories on the ground have been swift, dramatic, and devastating. And each win seems to make them stronger.
Russian victories (back when they happened), seemed to be slow and grinding, and wear the Rusisans down, making them weaker.
Why is it that Russians lose momentum with each victory, but Ukrainians gain it? Why such asymmetric momentum?
I see 6 (or 7, depending) major reasons:
1. Russian Politics (“quick war”): impatience -> meat grinder, not admitting defeat, vs Ukraine’s patience2. Russian Politics (show territorial progress): territory vs. Ukraine’s “defeat the enemy” -> meat grinder3. Russian Politics (don’t let Ukraine show territorial progress): no retreat allowed -> break and rout4. Morale, espirit de corps, discipline, "why are we here" vs fighting for home and life -> Ukrainians will die for the right reasons, Russians are drunk, will break and refuse to fight5. Russian atrocities: hardens Ukrainian morale and turns them into 24/7 machines of war who get smarter and become veterans6. Soviet vs. NATO style: NATO style allows for initiative and invests in training; Soviet style mass forces of limited training and centralized command means they are very predictable7. Putin: total centralized control by someone who has clearly lost touch with reality
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Mitchell Orenstein is a professor of Central and East European Politics in the Slavic department at the University of Pennsylvania and an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard. His research focuses on the political economy and international affairs of Central and Eastern Europe.
This episode is the latest installment to the four-part series on Reconsidering Russia, where we try to dig into Russia's historical and geopolitical context to help you better understand some of their moves today and what's going on in their country today.
Tune in to hear Eric, Xander, and Professor Orenstein dive deep into Russia's real objective in Ukraine, Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership, why Russia really needs to diversify its economy, and so much more.
00:00 Introduction
01:35 Why Geopolitics is not about reforms or democracy
03:49 What does Russia really want?
05:49 Understanding Russia's national interests and foreign policy preferences
12:59 Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership
16:33 Comparing Russian perceptions to the American interpretation
20:10 What does the 'Near Abroad' mean?
20:54 The democratization of Russia's 'Near Abroad'
24:12 Consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union
28:10 The strategic and fundamental importance of Ukraine
32:14 Russian interests in Finland
34:57 The Nature of Germany's relationship with Russia
39:01 Caucasus as a region of strategic importance to Russia
44:15 Chinese and Russian interests in South-East Asia
47:15 China-Russia relations: Eternal rivals or emerging alliance 
50:41 Russia's views on China's growth in power and influence 
52:38 Russia-Japan dispute over Kuril Islands 
54:50 Thoughts on Russia's domestic politics and foreign policy
58:35 Why Russia really needs to diversify its economy
01:01:58 What to expect from Russia in the next 5 to 10 years
01:05:18 Russia - a gas station with nuclear weapons
01:08:03 Parting thoughts 
Links and Resources:
Reconsidermedia.com
Mitchel's website - https://www.mitchellorenstein.com/
Mitchel's profile on the Foreign Affairs Magazine - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/mitchell-orenstein
Reconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermedia
Reconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/
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Time in Kyiv: 9am, Tues, Sep 13th.
Kharkiv Oblast is free.
Zelenksy announced about 6 weeks ago that a major counter-offensive in the South would take place. After a month of attacking bridges, rail depots, ammunition depots, C&C, bases, etc etc etc, the offensive started in earnest. 2 weeks in, they haven’t gotten a ton of territory back.
But, as all of us paying attention know, the Southern offensive may have been the greatest diversion in warfare since WWII itself. 
Over the last week, Ukraine launched the most dazzling counter-blitzkrieg I can think of. We’re going to go over all of that in its glorious detail here. 
There’s so, so, so much we don’t know. Lots of opsec, lots intentionally hidden from the public. What I can say with certainty is there will be many a movie made about this in Hollywood -- this is one of the great moments in military and geopolitical history, period. It is very, very likely the tide of the war has turned, and for good. David is now on top of Goliath, pummeling him.
Please excuse the sound. I wasn’t planning to record while on break here but I just couldn't help it. I don’t have my mic!

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Mark Schauss is the host of Russian Rulers History and Battle Ground History. Known for being heavily well-versed with the history of Russia, Mark Schauss joins us in today’s episode to talk about the Russian history in its most authentic form. Mark shares everything from Russia’s first invasion to how all these historic events reflect on how Russia moves socio-politically in today’s world.  

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Topics Covered What made mark start his podcast and how it’s currently going. The history of the first invasion and the second invasion of Russia. The geography of Russia and why it’s easy to invade Russia but why it’s difficult to stay. How Russia was able to balance European powers and how they were able to to set up alliances to protect their borders. Mark shares all about the Napolean and Crimean war.The casualties of the Russian Civil War. The transition period between 1917 to the World War 2. How Russia came back from the 2nd World War as a superpower country. 
Connect with Mark Russian History on Facebook 

Resources Mentioned Russian Rulers Podcast
Russian Rulers History
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Hot Updates
Severodonetsk fell slowly as expected, but then Lysychansk fell quickly because Russian troops surrounded it, and Ukrainian troops had to retreat rather than be destroyed. It’s possible the Ukrainians were out-gamed by Russian mid-level commanders.So far, Russians have not been able to break out of Donetsk city -- that part of the original Feb 24 defense line is holdingRussia appears to have deployed nearly 100% of its conventional combat capabilities to Ukraine, and is still getting clobbered.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/ Russia is trying to recruit “volunteer” regiments to deploy in Ukraine to relieve Russian troops -- they will be low quality, and so their use would be to hang tight in certain areas and try to pin down Ukrainian units. Not useless, but not super useful.
Once again we have returned to slow movement along the front lines now that Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell. Ukrainians fell back to the 2nd of 3 highly defensible urban areas in Donetsk oblast, with Siversk and Bakhmut the big towns there. Bakhmut is under a lot of pressure; Russians are trying to surround it, but so far to no avail.Russians attempting to attack directly on those two towns, but also continuing to try the end-around from Izium toward Sloviansk to try to create a pocket that can be cut off. So far it’s really not working. It looks like Russia might be deprioritizing that angle as of July 31.WHAT IS HIMARS? WHY DOES IT MATTER?

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Lots of ways we can split this. Much has been discussed about decoupling of wages from productivity. 
Also note we are absolutely not going to get into 2022. But it’s clear the price increases since the pandemic (due to supply shortages, super aggressive monetary policy, gasoline ,and other drivers of inflation) are really eating into real wages.

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