UBS On-Air: Market Moves Client Strategy Office

The first round of the French elections produced results broadly in line with opinion polls (as to the popular vote). An unusually large number of second-round votes could be three-way contests. That makes the final outcome harder to predict. In the past, there has been a “front républicain” with third-placed moderate candidates withdrawing to increase the chances of defeating a more extreme party (in this election, the Rassemblement National). It is not clear how many constituencies will follow such a strategy.

Polls immediately after the US presidential debate declared former President Trump the winner. While incumbents often “lose” debates, US President Biden reportedly lost by a large margin. This invites increased investor scrutiny of Trump’s policies, especially around trade. The economic consequences of tariffs are relatively obvious, but there is uncertainty about how many campaign pledges will translate into policy action.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard spends time reviewing an abundance of global election-related developments, including thoughts around Thursday’s US Presidential debate, along with upcoming snap elections in both the UK and France. Burkhard explains the impact of these developments to markets, along with offers guidance as to how investors should navigate through election-induced market volatility.

For this week, Shane previews the highly anticipated debate between President Biden, and former-President Trump, including a review of the rules and conditions. We also spend time reviewing likely areas of focus and the issues on the minds of the American voter. Plus, examine what the latest national and swing-state polling is pointing to. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation revisits the emerging markets as we discuss how the asset class has evolved in recent years, performance expectations for the asset class through year-end, and considerations when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Officer. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US first quarter GDP is revised, and will keep being revised; we will not have a clear picture of current GDP performance for five years or more. Markets will pay some attention to prices from the personal consumer expenditure deflator, but May data is due tomorrow. Politicians use GDP as a weapon or a rallying cry, but GDP is so far from real world living standards that voters do not care whether growth is reported as 1.4% or 1.3%.