In the Company of Mavericks

Jeremy McKeown
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 A podcast where we help serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and uncover new ways to confidently grow wealth in these radically uncertain times.

  1. 16 HR AGO

    Running On Empty, Running Blind - HyperNormal Situation Report May 15th

    Markets at all-time highs. A closed strait. The hottest inflation prints in years. The UK government is hanging by a thread. A US-China summit that resolved precisely nothing. We ask the only question that matters right now: how long can you keep running on empty? This week's episode covers six themes that are all pointing in the same direction. What We Cover 1. The Global Equity Market Paradox The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index are at or near all-time highs. Oil is at $107. PPI is at a three-year high. The TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) has been embarrassingly profitable — but a new Tex-Mex metaphor has entered the chat: NACHO. Not Any Chance Hormuz Opens. Michael Green warns the equity bid is structural, not rational — and when that unwinds, there are no conventional warning signs. 2. Oil Inventory Maths — The Runway Is Running Out The IEA reports global stockpiles fell 250 million barrels in March and April alone. JP Morgan's note — The Illusion of Plenty — puts OECD inventories at operational stress levels by early June and operational floor levels by September. Capital Economics sees $130–$140/barrel as the base case if Hormuz stays shut. And even a reopening tomorrow can't fix things fast enough — mine clearance, vessel redeployment, infrastructure repair: minimum two to three months. The canary in the coal mine turned out to be in Havana. Cuba ran out of fuel entirely. The energy minister's quote: "We have absolutely no fuel oil. We have absolutely no diesel." That's the Hormuz crisis on a human scale. 3. Inflation is No Longer Just About Energy US CPI: 3.8% year-on-year. PPI: 6%, the highest since December 2022. Truck freight costs up 8.1% — the biggest jump since 2009. Services inflation up 1.2% in a single month. Real average hourly earnings have turned negative for the first time since April 2023. The Bank of England's Megan Greene: "Inflation risks are entirely on the upside." The second-round effects are now landing. Global bond yields are at one-year highs. 4. Kevin Warsh's Impossible New Job Confirmed 54–45 — the narrowest Senate margin since Fed chair confirmation became required in 1977. For context: Powell got 84, Yellen got 56. Warsh scraped through. On his first day as chair-elect, PPI printed at 6%. CME FedWatch now prices a 30% chance of a rate hike by year-end. His first FOMC meeting: June 16th. It may be the most consequential since Volcker walked in on August 14th, 1979. We know how that one ended. 5. The UK: Where the Bond Market Is the Government Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats. Reform took 1,451 of them. Gordon Brown turned up — and when Gordon Brown is the answer, someone is asking the wrong question. Wes Streeting walked into Downing Street. 94 MPs publicly called for Starmer to go. Andy Burnham booked his return ticket. The pound had its worst week since November 2024. The 30-year gilt sits near 5.7% — above every developed world peer. Bloomberg Economics estimates the May yield move alone adds £2 billion to the UK debt interest bill. Gilt traders are underweight. The market is now pricing the worst-case scenario for bonds — and Andy Burnham is it. 6. The Summit That Resolved Nothing YMCA played at the state banquet. Xi promised Trump rose seeds. Jensen Huang boarded Air Force One in Alaska. Boeing was promised 200 jets — the market expected 500; Boeing fell 4%. Xi made clear Taiwan is the most important issue in US-China relations and that independence is "fundamentally incompatible with peace." Trump didn't answer when asked about it. The $14 billion arms package for Taipei remains unsigned. China called the Iran conflict one that "should never have happened" — diplomatic code for neutrality, unless major concessions materialise elsewhere. Like Taiwan, perhaps. As Gerard Baker put it in The Times, this is the first time in nearly a century that an American president met another power's leader on equal terms. Trump came seeking help, not making demands. The Bottom Line Inflation has moved beyond energy into services and freight. The UK bond market is delivering daily verdicts on a government in freefall. Oil inventory maths has weeks of runway left. The summit didn't deliver on Iran. Hormuz is being normalised under Iranian control — not reopened. Equities are at records. Something is going to break. The question is what, when, and whether Kevin Warsh has any idea what's walking toward him on June 16th. Jackson Browne told us in 1977: "I'm running on empty, and I'm running blind." People & Institutions Referenced Michael Green · Michael Burry · Jensen Huang · Kevin Warsh · Paul Volcker · Keir Starmer · Andy Burnham · Wes Streeting · Angela Rayner · Gordon Brown · Kemi Badenoch · Nigel Farage · Megan Greene (Bank of England) · Jim Lee (EIU) · Gerard Baker · Donald Trump · Xi Jinping · Saudi Aramco CEO · JP Morgan · IEA · Capital Economics · CME FedWatch · TD Securities · Morgan Stanley · Bloomberg Economics Sponsor Finance Talking — specialist financial training for capital markets, business finance, and communications. Clients include Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. Virtual, in-person, and e-learning options available. Please tell them Jeremy sent you. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. Keywords oil price crisis · Strait of Hormuz · US inflation CPI PPI 2025 · Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve · UK gilt crisis · UK Labour leadership crisis · Andy Burnham · Trump Xi summit Beijing · equity market all-time highs · TACO trade NACHO trade · Michael Green passive investing · oil inventory IEA · Jackson Browne running on empty · macro investing podcast · active investor podcast · capital markets 2025 Subscribe & Follow In the Company of Mavericks — helping serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and find new ways to grow wealth in radically uncertain times. ⚠️ Nothing in this episode constitutes investment advice. For information and entertainment only. You are responsible for your own financial decisions.

    14 min

  2. 2 DAYS AGO

    The Silent Crisis of Financial Literacy with Andrew Craig & Josh Sanford - A Younger Person's Guide to Money & Investing

    In this episode of In The Company of Mavericks, we tackle the most requested topic since the podcast launched: the fundamentals of money and investing, and how to introduce these vital concepts to children, grandchildren, and the next generation. Host Jeremy McKeown is joined by Andy Craig, founder of Plain English Finance and author of the bestselling book How to Own the World, alongside Josh Sandford, investment director at Dowgate Wealth, with two decades of experience guiding clients through market cycles. Whether you're a beginner investor, a parent wanting to teach your kids about money, or a seasoned investor revisiting first principles, this conversation delivers actionable insights on building long-term wealth, navigating volatility, and avoiding the most common investing mistakes. Episode Sponsor: Finance TalkingFinance Talking provides specialist financial training around capital markets, business finance, and communications, with virtual, in-person, and low-cost e-learning courses. Their clients include Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. Mention Jeremy when you get in touch. Visit Jeremy's Substack: HyperNormalTimes. What You'll Learn in This EpisodeWhy UK financial literacy lags behind international peers, and the £20 trillion opportunity costThe crucial difference between investing and trading (and why conflating them destroys wealth)How compound interest truly works, and why 60% of UK adults don't understand itThe main asset classes every investor should know: cash, bonds, equities, property, commodities, and precious metalsWhy asset allocation matters more than stock pickingThe "100 minus your age" rule (and why it should now be 120 minus your age)How to stay the course during market volatility and drawdownsThe truth about inflation, monetary debasement, and why nominal returns misleadGold, silver, and Bitcoin as inflation hedgesThe rise of passive investing and its structural risks for capital marketsWhether AI infrastructure spending signals a bubble or a cycleHow to think about buying property versus renting and investingWhy time is the young investor's greatest asset Key Takeaways1. Financial literacy is a silver bullet. Understanding how money and investing work dramatically increases your chances of building wealth over a lifetime. 2. Investing is not trading. Investing harnesses real economic growth and human progress. Trading is largely a zero-sum game where 78–80% of retail participants lose money. 3. Time is your greatest asset. Get rich slowly. £5,000 invested in a Junior ISA at birth, compounded at 10%, becomes £945,000 by retirement. 4. Know the asset classes. Cash, bonds, equities, property, commodities, and precious metals each play a different role in a balanced portfolio. 5. Asset allocation beats stock picking. Use the "120 minus your age" heuristic to balance defensive and aggressive holdings. 6. Risk is not just volatility. The risk of doing nothing — sitting in cash and losing purchasing power to inflation — is often greater. 7. Think in real terms, not nominal. Monetary debasement is the real story behind asset price inflation. 8. Ignore the noise. The average equity investor underperforms the market by about 700 basis points because they react to news. Main Street is not Wall Street. 9. Property: think in decades. Don't fall for FOMO. Compare rental yields, salary multiples, and opportunity costs before buying. 10. Stay the course. Pound-cost average, diversify, and let compounding do the heavy lifting. About the GuestsAndy Craig is the founder of Plain English Finance and author of How to Own the World, one of the UK's most popular personal finance books. After a 25-year career in the City, Andy now dedicates his work to improving financial literacy across the UK. Find him at plainenglishfinance. Josh Sandford is investment director at Dowgate Wealth with over 20 years of experience managing discretionary portfolios for high-net-worth individuals and pension funds. Books Mentioned in This EpisodeHow to Own the World — Andy CraigThe Psychology of Money — Morgan HouselRich Dad Poor Dad — Robert KiyosakiThe Ascent of Money — Niall FergusonMoney: A Story of Humanity — David McWilliamsBroken Money — Lyn AldenThe Secret History of Gold — Dominic FrisbySimple but Not Easy — Richard Oldfield Keywords: financial literacy UK, how to start investing, investing for beginners, compound interest, asset allocation, ISA vs pension, passive investing risks, gold as inflation hedge, Bitcoin investing, teaching kids about money, Andy Craig How to Own the World, Plain English Finance, Galgate Wealth, Josh Sandford, Jeremy McEwen, In The Company of Mavericks podcast, UK personal finance, monetary debasement, real returns, S&P 500 ETF, generational wealth, stocks and shares ISA, get rich slowly, investing vs trading

    49 min

  3. 8 MAY

    OPEC is Over, China Has Won & The Emerging New World Order with Doomberg

    In this episode, I talk to Doomberg following our last chat in early March, and he expands on his thoughts that the Iran War was a catastrophic error with significant strategic consequences for the World. As usual, Doomberg doesn't hold back. China has entered the chat just as the UAE has exited OPEC, putting the instability among the Gulf countries and the broader Middle East into perspective. Despite the demands of the AI hyperscalers, the world is fundamentally long on hydrocarbons, and what the events of the last 10 weeks have demonstrated is that the constraint on energy supply is political, not geological. Brought to you by Progressive Equity & Finance Talking.

    40 min

  4. 4 MAY

    Seven Tankers and the 10% Rally: Oil, the Fed Crisis, and the AI CapEx Engine - The Gap Between the Strait & the Tape

    Seven tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, against a pre-war baseline of 140. The world's most important oil choke point is running at 5% capacity. So why did the S&P 500 just post its best April since 2020? Jeremy McKeown walks through the four stories driving markets right now: an energy shock, a bond market in revolt, a fracturing monetary order, and the deepest institutional crisis at the Fed in modern history, and the AI CapEx cycle holding it all together. In this episode: – Brent at $126, LNG up 61%, and Goldman's warning on non-linear price spikes – Why BlackRock says the 60/40 portfolio is broken – The UAE quits OPEC and asks the Fed for a dollar swap line — while quietly talking to Beijing – Saudi Arabia, the petrodollar, and the day the yuan settles oil – Four FOMC dissenters, the most since 1992, and Powell breaking 75 years of precedent – Kevin Warsh arrives on record wanting to cut into a supply shock – Coordinated hawkishness from the ECB, BoE, and BoJ — with the yen approaching 160 – The $670bn AI CapEx engine — bigger than Sweden's GDP — holding the tape up – Why Meta sold off 7% on a beat-and-raise – Picks and shovels vs. the hyperscalers: where the asymmetry sits now Three things to watch: the Hormuz tanker count, the ECB on June 11th, and whether Tokyo defends the yen at 160. A brief on a market climbing a wall of worry that gets taller every day. For deeper analysis between episodes, subscribe to Jeremy's Substack, HyperNormalTimes. Brought to you by Progressive Equity & partner: Finance Talking — capital markets and business finance training, trusted by Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. The views expressed are for information and entertainment only, not financial advice.

    18 min

  5. 1 MAY

    Beer is the best lubricant mankind has found in 7,000 years with Jonathan Neame & How Brtiain's oldest brewer has survived by bloodymindedness and 450 years of adaptation

    Shepherd Neame has been brewing beer on the same site in Faversham, Kent, since 1573. That's before Shakespeare. Before the King James Bible. Before anyone called a pub a pub. It has survived two World Wars, the Temperance Movement, the craft beer revolution, a very public family falling-out, and a pandemic that shut down every pub in Britain overnight. Jonathan Neame is the fifth-generation CEO, a qualified barrister, a former management consultant, and a man who once swore he would never work for his father. He changed his mind. In this conversation, Jeremy McKeown talks to Jonathan about family governance and succession, the economics of the British pub, why three pubs are closing every day in the UK right now, and what the government could do tomorrow to stop it. They also get into the craft beer revolution, the bifurcation between London and rural pub markets, and what it means to run a nearly 500-year-old business on a site where James Watt installed his second-ever steam engine in 1789. Jonathan's answer to why Shepherd Neame has survived while almost everyone else hasn't: they're not in the alcohol business. They're in the socialising business. Beer is just the best lubricant mankind has come up with in 7,000 years. Guest: Jonathan Neame, CEO, Shepherd Neame Sponsored by: Progressive Equity & Finance Talking

    39 min

  6. 24 APR

    Schrödinger's Strait & The Gems Among The Rubble with Le Shrub and Laurence Hulse: The Odd Couple of Memes and Micro-Caps

    Brought to you by Progressive Equity and Finance Talking. Schrödinger's Strait & The Gems Among The Rubble Episode Summary: Dive into the absurdities of modern macro markets and the hidden value in UK equities in this episode of Mavericks. Host Jeremy McKeown brings together an investing "odd couple": Laurie Hulse, UK small-cap stock picker and manager of the Onward Opportunities Investment Trust, and The Shrub, a world-renowned meme trader, parody hedge fund manager, and macro commentator. Together, they explore how to navigate market volatility and uncover wealth-building strategies by blending bottom-up micro-cap stock picking with top-down macro analysis. In This Episode, We Cover: The Reality of Public Markets vs Private Equity: Laurie reflects on the 3-year anniversary of Onward Opportunities, its graduation from AIM to the LSE primary listing, and the brutal, honest "mark-to-market" nature of public markets. The guests contrast this with the "deferred reckoning" of private markets, discussing the potential market impact of massive private valuations and the looming SpaceX IPO.The "Golden Age of Grift" & Market Absurdity: The Shrub explains his philosophy that "once you realise it's all nonsense, it starts to make sense". He breaks down why global markets ignore geopolitical crises—joking that as long as the S&P is above its 200-day moving average, even an asteroid strike is "priced in". He introduces the concept of "Schrödinger's Strait", where vital global shipping lanes are treated by the market as both open and closed simultaneously.The Capital Cycle & The UK Discount: Discover why a decade-long slump in UK equities might be the perfect setup for massive returns. The Shrub outlines the "capital cycle," explaining that the longer an asset is ignored, the more explosive its eventual upcycle will be. They discuss "Klaus," the imaginary European pension fund manager, and why trillions in capital reshoring to Europe could trigger a massive rally for UK and European assets.Gems Among the Rubble: Laurie shares real-world case studies of finding heavily discounted global businesses listed in the UK, including the highly successful acquisition of marine data business Windward and the podcasting platform Audioboom.Exit Liquidity & Survival Strategies: The Mavericks discuss why investors must plan their exits before they buy, whether through takeovers, US dual-listings, or graduating to larger markets, especially when dealing with illiquid small-cap stocks. Listen to the end for actionable takeaways on building portfolio resilience and surviving the "clown show" of modern markets. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The ideas discussed may not align with your personal risk appetite. Please do your own research and take responsibility for your wealth decisions. Enjoyed this episode? Subscribe to Jeremy’s Substack, Hyperormal Times, for non-obvious insights into how the world really works and the investment implications the financial press often misses.

    45 min

  7. 16 APR

    Small Ships, Big Oceans, World on Fire: Ami Daniel on the Middle East energy shock, zero cost intelligence, and why the SaaS apocalypse is your opportunity

    Small Ships, Big Oceans, World on Fire Ami Daniel on the Middle East energy shock, the death of cheap intelligence, and why the SaaS apocalypse is your opportunity Ami Daniel, founder of maritime AI company Windward, returns to the pod with a front-row view of the Middle East energy shock — and a confession about the one big thing he got completely wrong about AI. With US naval pressure tightening around Iranian ports and ships going dark in the Strait of Hormuz, Ami explains why this energy crisis has no quick fix: 20% of the world's oil and gas cannot simply be rerouted. He maps the geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East, why Israeli and UAE capital markets are telling a different story to the headlines, and why the Abraham Accord alliance may become the defining axis of the region for the next two decades. Then the conversation shifts to AI and investing. Ami's big admission: he thought data would be commoditised and insight would be scarce. He had it exactly backwards. Insight is now effectively free — you can get PhD-level analysis on an API. Data is the scarce resource. That one inversion is eating the entire SaaS industry alive. But Ami argues the SaaS collapse is a buying opportunity for patient investors — if you know what to look for. Proprietary data moats. High average order values. Strong net revenue retention. And it's also a good idea to look for wartime CEOs who have navigated real adversity before the good times arrived. We also get into Windward's own journey — why leaving the London Stock Exchange wasn't a vote against the UK market, why he's now backing a company to list there, and what it means to steer a business through years of people thinking you're wrong. Five takeaways: The Middle East energy shock is structural — there is no easy fixThe region is being geopolitically reshaped, and capital markets are repricing itDefensible data moats are the new scarce resource in an AI worldThe SaaS collapse is a patient investor's opportunityBack wartime CEOs — people who kept going when nobody believed in them Brought to you by Progressive Equity. Links mentioned in this episode: Windward insights: https://insights.windward.aiAmi Daniel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amidanielWindward on X: @WindwardAIAmi Daniel on X: @AmidanielOneOrlando Bravo / Thoma Bravo—software is a buying opportunity (CNBC): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/tech-investor-orlando-bravo-software-ai.htmlBen Horowitz — Peacetime CEO / Wartime CEO: https://a16z.com/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/Previous episode with Ami (September 2024): https://substack.com/@jeremymckeown/p-148564789HyperNormal Times: https://jeremymckeown.substack.com

    33 min

  8. 8 APR

    The Iranian Toll Booth: A HyperNormalTimes Report on What the War Actually Changed

    The Iranian Toll Booth: A HyperNormal Situation Report Operation Epic Fury is over, we are told. The bombs landed. The headlines can move on. And yet, the Strait of Hormuz has become a checkpoint run by the IRGC — with US allies quietly filing the paperwork to get through. This is your HyperNormal situation report. In this solo ITCOM episode, Jeremy McKeown cuts through the noise to explain what the US-Israeli campaign against Iran actually achieved, what it failed to achieve, and what the aftermath reveals about the real state of Western power in 2026. French diplomats negotiating with Iranian middlemen. Greek shipping companies submitting cargo manifests to IRGC checkpoints. Japan is in back channels with Tehran. America's closest allies are paying the toll — not because they want to, but because they cannot afford the alternative. That's not a military failure. It's something more consequential: it's normalisation. Jeremy covers: Why the Iranian Toll Booth is more consequential than a blockadeThe Western "clown show" responseWhat the death of the petrodollar looks likeWhy this is the Suez Moment that nobody's calling a Suez MomentWhere to position capital when the old maps stop working Drawing on recent conversations with Doomberg, David Murrin, John Polomny, Charlie Garcia, and Michael Every — this is the episode for investors who want to understand the world as it is, not as the press conference says it is. The liturgy continues. The faith is gone. Stay sharp. In The Company of Mavericks | HyperNormalTimes with Jeremy McKeown Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

    11 min
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About

 A podcast where we help serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and uncover new ways to confidently grow wealth in these radically uncertain times.

Information

  • Creator
    Jeremy McKeown
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    136
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 1960 Consulting Ltd
  • Show Website
    In the Company of Mavericks

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